First posted by zweisystem on Wednesday, March 4, 2020
This was posted almost six years ago and the realities of subway construction are today, hitting home. The Broadway Subway, the 5.7 km continuation of the the Millennium Line, first pegged to cost $2.7 billion and open in 2024, has now well passed the $3 billion mark and is projected to cost near $4 billion when it opens, probably in early 2028.
Already 80 businesses have gone bankrupt due to the road closures along Broadway from subway constructionist, which politcans and bureacrats had promised would not happen. many more businesses are due to go bankrupt in 2026 due to the complete closure of Broadway.
Also it must be remembered that according to Thales, who is doing the $1.47 billion re-signalling program on both the Expo and Millennium Lines (not included in the cost estimates for the Broadway Subway), the maximum capacity pf the Broadway Subway will be a mere 7,500 pphpd!
The government of Canada, the government of British Columbia, and the region have committed to investing $C 1.47bn ($US 1.1bn) in the Expo and Millennium Line Upgrade Programme until 2027.
When the programme is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively.
Sadly, the realities of subway construction remain unlearned in Metro Vancouver, as the politicians at all levels of government sell porkies to the taxpayers and Broadway merchants..
The realities of subway mania.
Vancouver politicians live in “The Land of the Lotus Eaters”, when it comes to transit.
In Greek mythology the lotus-eaters, were a race of people living on an island dominated by the Lotus tree. The lotus fruits and flowers were the primary food of the island and were a narcotic, causing the inhabitants to sleep in peaceful apathy.
As TransLink, Vancouver Council, UBC, and the Mayor’s Council on Transit sleep in peaceful apathy, the realities of the real cost of the subway are ignored.
According to Metrolinx’s study, the real cost of the 5.8 km Broadway subway will be more like $6 billion over 50 years.
As costs mount ever higher elsewhere for subways, our politicians and bureaucrats remain ignorant of escalating costs for subway construction, continue to misinform the public as to the real cost of Broadway’s subway.
In Metro Toronto, Metrolinx has finally admitted that:”
“……the Scarborough subway costs simply aren’t worth it,” he said. “It’s been years that Scarborough subway advocates haven’t been telling the truth to Scarborough residents and people across the city.”
And for years now, Translink: the City of Vancouver, UBC, the Ministry of Transportation, the Minister of Transportation, the Minister responsible for TransLink, the Mayor’s Council on Transit and the subway lobby haven’t been telling the truth about the high costs of subway construction to taxpayers in metro Vancouver. Is the $6 billion. plus, cost over 50 years, giving good value?
Is it not time that the province steps in for a fiscal reality check? Is there the moral fibre in Victoria to do this?
Interesting that the numbers for LRT came via the TTC and the numbers for the subwaycame from the provincial government who wanted the subway.
The subway project in Scarborough has been hotly debated in Toronto since 2013, when its backers won council support for cancelling a light-rail line in the area and replacing it with an extension – the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension seen here in 2016 – of the subway to Scarborough Town Centre mall.Kevin Van Paassen/The Globe and Mail
Two of Ontario’s marquee transit projects have costs that far exceed their benefits, according to a pair of analyses prepared for the regional transit agency Metrolinx.
The reports, released Friday afternoon, show that the Scarborough subway extension proposed for east-end Toronto and the westward extension of the Crosstown Eglinton light rail line across the city could, together, cost nearly $10-billion to build while producing benefits amounting to billions less. In spite of this, Metrolinx has recommended both projects be advanced.
The analysis deliberately errs on the side of caution and Metrolinx hopes to improve the benefits of these projects over time, agency CEO Phil Verster said in a statement.
The benefits are calculated by assigning a monetary value to such things as removing cars from the road and saving commuters time.
Shelagh Pizey-Allen, spokesperson for the advocacy group TTCRiders, said the projects were examples of proposals pitched with a modest price tag, but costs rose and value diminished over time.
The Metrolinx board received these reports at an in-camera meeting in January and, at the time, quietly approved pushing ahead with the projects. The agency refused to release the reports when asked earlier this month.
Both projects are being overseen by the provincial government, which struck a deal with the city of Toronto that handed over control and financial responsibility for major rail construction to Metrolinx.
A spokeswoman for Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney said the government would continue to support both projects.
“These [reports] represent Metrolinx’s best understanding of the projects at a given moment in time and are inevitably subject to change during the projects’ life cycles,” Christina Salituro said in an e-mail.
“These documents are key elements in ensuring Metrolinx continues to make the most informed decisions going forward and are just one of a number of factors used in making a final decision.”
The subway project in Scarborough has been hotly debated in Toronto since 2013, when its backers won council support for cancelling a light-rail line in the area and replacing it with an extension of the subway to Scarborough Town Centre mall.
The analysis released Friday of the subway extension concluded it would bring $2.8-billion in benefits over a 60-year period, and cost about $5.5-billion to build. The Ontario government had last year pegged the cost at this level, which is about $2-billion more than the amount budgeted by the city when it was in charge of an earlier version of project.
“That subway is not going to be cost-effective,” said Brenda Thompson, with the advocacy group Scarborough Transit Action, adding that such a high price tag would preclude building anything else in that part of the city.
“I think this is going to suck up all of the money and I think politicians should be upfront about that. This is what we’re going to end up with, if at all.”
Toronto Councillor Josh Matlow, who has long advocated for the original plan for light rail instead in Scarborough, said that the report is another example of the claims of subway boosters being proved wrong.
“Today Metrolinx finally admitted that the Scarborough subway costs simply aren’t worth it,” he said. “It’s been years that Scarborough subway advocates haven’t been telling the truth to Scarborough residents and people across the city.”
The city had budgeted $3.56-billion for a one-stop Scarborough subway extension. During the last election campaign, now Premier Doug Ford pledged to add two more stations. The version being studied by Metrolinx includes the additional stations.
The newly released analysis for a light-rail extension of the Crosstown to Pearson International Airport shows that it will cost up to $4.4-billion, net present value, in 2019 dollars, if it has nine stops and is substantially below ground. In that form it would bring benefits of $1.4-billion over 60 years.
The project’s capital cost could be reduced to about $2.8-billion if most of the stops were removed, the analysis notes, or to as little as $2.1-billion if it was built on the surface.
Mr. Ford has pledged to bury as much of the Crosstown extension as possible.
“When the program is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively.”
This is a funny statement. Both Expo and Millennium lines built with same platform lengths and the two lines overlap each other. Millennium line is really an extension of the Expo line. I have seen six car generation 1 trains on the Millennium line. There is also four car generation 3 trains too.
What exactly is stopping translink using the full platform lengths?
I have taken a train from VCC station and rode all the way to Waterfront station without a transfer. Only paid a one zone fair even when the train passes through multiple zones.
Toronto extended the subway to Scarborough because they wanted a single line and the public wanted it. No forced transfers.
Zwei Replies: The problem is not the platform length, rather the signalling which can accommodate a limited number of trains. Thus the signalling of the Expo Line is more expensive than the Millennium Lines.
You are not the only one that is puzzled by this and the information I have received is that the expected ridership on the Millennium line is far less than the Expo line.
The trip you took from VCC to Waterfront no longer exists, as The Expo Line trains now terminate at Production Way and VCC trains terminate at Lafarge lake.
I have long suspected that there is probably 2 possible reasons for the differences in the line capacities. First that there is much less difference really in line capabilities but more of a cost saving measure, self imposed on Translink and by association, also by there technology providers. Second reason, there is really far fewer people riding the Millennium Line and its constantly lower passenger numbers has been accepted by Translink and therefore much less capacity is purposely provided.
Britpop
1.Translink, press release in 2017 “When the program is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively.”
Translink, press release in 2022 “By 2029, we expect to be able to serve about 20% more customers on Expo Line, and 50% more on Millennium Line during the busiest times of the day.”
2. Simply put, we need more skytrain cars. On order for more MK 5
3. Expo lines are constrained by platform length today 82 M. But in the future, plans to have it at 120 M.
4. Compass could only count from tap in and out of the location. Start zone 1 and exit zone 2 you pay zone 2. Zone 1 to zone 1 you pay zone 1.
Mr zwei
No the problem is Expo Line timing to slot between m line train segment between Lougheed and lake City way. Simply increase one line frequency without the other line have conflicts.
VCC To Waterfront stations are still possible revenue service between stations during select times of day with no transfer. Yes, it may not be posted or advertised, but
Mr haveacow
M Line frequency 1/2 of expo line.
Today Max M line frequency 2/3 of expo line or in other words 2 m line train of 1 expo line train going through Lougheed. If the ratio changes you have delayed trains or train traffic jams.
Sel track smartest CBTC unlike Alstom CBTC communications problems and dropout causing human intervene.
Translink is looking to make Colombia a proper interchange station, with 3 tracks and quit the interlining between the 2 services. Expensive solution and best for the long-term operations to have them line independently operate services.
Zwei Replies: Sorry, it was Thales in their 2022 news Release that stated the Millennium Line would have a maximum capacity of 7,500 after re-signalling, presently it has a maximum capacity of 4,000 pphpd which is more than laughable.
Why the need for new cars when you have a massive tranche of MK.1’s?
The big problem is funding, TransLink is broke and the NDP are not getting the voting hit with both extensions, that they expected.
There is zero funding for any station rebuilding, etc. One has to remember, SkyTrain expansion is designed to meet election windows and not much more. The NDP have all but lost interest in the Expo line extension as they did not give them the decisive win they expected in last election and i have been told that internal polling is not favourable for more SkyTrain expansion if it means increased taxes!
Sorry, Alstom builds the the Innovia 300 cars and Thales is providing the signalling system.
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“When the program is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively.”
This is a funny statement. Both Expo and Millennium lines built with same platform lengths and the two lines overlap each other. Millennium line is really an extension of the Expo line. I have seen six car generation 1 trains on the Millennium line. There is also four car generation 3 trains too.
What exactly is stopping translink using the full platform lengths?
I have taken a train from VCC station and rode all the way to Waterfront station without a transfer. Only paid a one zone fair even when the train passes through multiple zones.
Toronto extended the subway to Scarborough because they wanted a single line and the public wanted it. No forced transfers.
Zwei Replies: The problem is not the platform length, rather the signalling which can accommodate a limited number of trains. Thus the signalling of the Expo Line is more expensive than the Millennium Lines.
You are not the only one that is puzzled by this and the information I have received is that the expected ridership on the Millennium line is far less than the Expo line.
The trip you took from VCC to Waterfront no longer exists, as The Expo Line trains now terminate at Production Way and VCC trains terminate at Lafarge lake.
I have long suspected that there is probably 2 possible reasons for the differences in the line capacities. First that there is much less difference really in line capabilities but more of a cost saving measure, self imposed on Translink and by association, also by there technology providers. Second reason, there is really far fewer people riding the Millennium Line and its constantly lower passenger numbers has been accepted by Translink and therefore much less capacity is purposely provided.
Britpop
1.Translink, press release in 2017 “When the program is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively.”
Translink, press release in 2022 “By 2029, we expect to be able to serve about 20% more customers on Expo Line, and 50% more on Millennium Line during the busiest times of the day.”
2. Simply put, we need more skytrain cars. On order for more MK 5
3. Expo lines are constrained by platform length today 82 M. But in the future, plans to have it at 120 M.
4. Compass could only count from tap in and out of the location. Start zone 1 and exit zone 2 you pay zone 2. Zone 1 to zone 1 you pay zone 1.
Mr zwei
No the problem is Expo Line timing to slot between m line train segment between Lougheed and lake City way. Simply increase one line frequency without the other line have conflicts.
VCC To Waterfront stations are still possible revenue service between stations during select times of day with no transfer. Yes, it may not be posted or advertised, but
Mr haveacow
M Line frequency 1/2 of expo line.
Today Max M line frequency 2/3 of expo line or in other words 2 m line train of 1 expo line train going through Lougheed. If the ratio changes you have delayed trains or train traffic jams.
Sel track smartest CBTC unlike Alstom CBTC communications problems and dropout causing human intervene.
Translink is looking to make Colombia a proper interchange station, with 3 tracks and quit the interlining between the 2 services. Expensive solution and best for the long-term operations to have them line independently operate services.
Zwei Replies: Sorry, it was Thales in their 2022 news Release that stated the Millennium Line would have a maximum capacity of 7,500 after re-signalling, presently it has a maximum capacity of 4,000 pphpd which is more than laughable.
Why the need for new cars when you have a massive tranche of MK.1’s?
The big problem is funding, TransLink is broke and the NDP are not getting the voting hit with both extensions, that they expected.
There is zero funding for any station rebuilding, etc. One has to remember, SkyTrain expansion is designed to meet election windows and not much more. The NDP have all but lost interest in the Expo line extension as they did not give them the decisive win they expected in last election and i have been told that internal polling is not favourable for more SkyTrain expansion if it means increased taxes!
Sorry, Alstom builds the the Innovia 300 cars and Thales is providing the signalling system.