Wow Factor!
Wow factor!
Here is a big problem. City of Vancouver types have been claiming that 100,000 people use transit on Broadway each work day.
From the following statistics, the claim is pure hokum.
From the following table there are a total of 73,328 trips in and out of UBC from all transit routes with Broadway accounting for a mere 7.4% of the trips.
41st Ave accounts for 10% of the trips to UBC.
It is clear, that those advocating for the Broadway subway are greatly inflating ridership numbers, in order to make the case for a Broadway subway.
More and more the Broadway subway is becoming this decades great FastFerry fiasco.
Is it not time to put a halt to the Mayor’s Council on Transit’s Ten Year Plan, until a public and independent inquiry is ordered to see if the project is viable or not.
From the UBC Vancouver Transportation Status Report Fall 2016
Table 3.3:Ai?? Average Weekday Transit Trips to / from UBC by Route, 2016
|
Route |
AM |
Midday |
PM Peak |
Evening |
Night |
Totals |
||
|
6am to 9am |
9am to 3pm |
3pm to 6pm |
6pm to Midnight |
Midnight to 4:30am |
||||
|
4 |
4th Avenue |
347 |
934 |
593 |
982 |
21 |
2,877 |
3.9% |
|
9 |
Broadway |
352 |
250 |
723 |
124 |
– |
1,449 |
2.0% |
|
14/N17 |
Broadway |
440 |
1,317 |
881 |
1,167 |
153 |
3,958 |
5.4% |
|
25 |
King Edward |
1,136 |
2,985 |
1,644 |
1,410 |
32 |
7,207 |
9.8% |
|
33 |
16th Avenue |
787 |
1,625 |
970 |
755 |
– |
4,137 |
5.6% |
|
41 |
41st Avenue |
1,237 |
3,383 |
1,566 |
1,565 |
5 |
7,756 |
10.6% |
|
43 |
41st Ave Express |
1,695 |
1,233 |
1,410 |
766 |
– |
5,104 |
7.0% |
|
44 |
4th Ave. Express |
1,177 |
2,564 |
1,477 |
594 |
– |
5,812 |
7.9% |
|
49 |
49th Avenue |
893 |
2,863 |
1,861 |
961 |
– |
6,578 |
9.0% |
|
84 |
4th Ave. Express |
872 |
2,396 |
1,620 |
811 |
– |
5,699 |
7.8% |
|
99 |
Broadway B-Line |
2,241 |
6,540 |
4,093 |
4,745 |
152 |
17,771 |
24.2% |
|
258 |
North Shore |
210 |
86 |
70 |
– |
– |
366 |
0.5% |
|
480 |
Richmond Express |
721 |
2,040 |
1,352 |
501 |
– |
4,614 |
6.3% |
|
NIS |
Not In Service |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
0.0% |
|
Totals |
12,108 |
28,216 |
18,260 |
14,381 |
363 |
73,328 |
100% |
|
|
14.7% |
40.3% |
26.3% |
16.6% |
2.1% |
||||
Table 3.4:Ai?? Average Peak Hour Weekday Transit Trips to / from UBC by Route, 2016
|
Route |
AM Peak Hour Westbound 8:45am ai??i?? 9:45am |
PM Peak Hour Eastbound 5:00pm ai??i?? 6:00pm |
|||
|
4 |
4th Avenue |
232 |
3.0% |
197 |
3.4% |
|
9 |
Broadway |
189 |
2.5% |
334 |
5.7% |
|
14/N17 |
Broadway |
304 |
4.0% |
303 |
5.2% |
|
25 |
King Edward |
688 |
9.0% |
535 |
9.2% |
|
33 |
16th Avenue |
288 |
3.8% |
299 |
5.1% |
|
41 |
41st Avenue |
681 |
8.9% |
389 |
6.7% |
|
43 |
41st Ave.(limited stops) |
787 |
10.3% |
520 |
9.0% |
|
44 |
4th Ave.(limited stops) |
830 |
10.9% |
320 |
5.5% |
Err, did you miss the Broadway B Line’s 24.2%?
And where is the claim that the *current* Broadway ridership is 100K per day?
“Records that have been disclosed under freedom-of-information law make clear that officials have been kept abreast of the runaway train, [subway under Broadway] so to speak – but not the taxpayer… Was it to compensate those who had speculated on property around the subway corridor?”
https://biv.com/article/2018/04/next-stop-metros-transit-expansion-mystery-train-mega-cost-increases
You want the many people who work and live in Surrey to stay in Surrey and use public transit in Surrey. You want the very few people who live in Surrey and work in Vancouver to drive. It cuts down on the number of cars on the roads.
You don’t want rapid transit to be full of long distance commuters from Coquitlam so that by the time that rapid transit reaches Vancouver, people in Vancouver can’t board rapid transit in Vancouver. This is what will happen if the Millennium Line is extended under Broadway. You want fast trams on Broadway to stop every 500 metres in Vancouver for people to use public transit in Vancouver and live in Vancouver. Here’s how vehicles share the roads with trams for smart transit in Vancouver:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyWIDe0ROQQ
https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/safety-and-road-rules/road-rules/a-to-z-of-road-rules/trams
.
Only the 99 b-line people-demand is replaced by the subway under Broadway. Peak demand for the subway replacing the 99-line is about 1,300 people every hour (could be up to 2000 people every hour on a really busy day) unless TransLink does its usual trick and “optimizes” bus routes to double count and recycle people from far away bus routes to the subway (as TransLink has done on every rapid transit line so far). Sneaks:
.
Weekday 99 b-line trips for 2016 from 6 am to 2:30 am over 20.5 hours: 17771 trips daily
Trips per person: 2 trips per person daily
Number of people carried daily by 99 b-line buses on weekday: 8886 people daily (17771 / 2 = 8886)
Number of hours of 99-b-line operation on weekday: 20.5 hours of operation daily
Average hourly number of people on 99 b-line buses: 433 people (8886 / 20.5)
Factor for peak hour number of people on 99 b-line: 3
Peak hour number of people using 99 b-line buses for subway design: 1300 people = 433 people * 3
.
At 1,300 people-demand for the peak hour, the subway is only about 15,000 people shy of the demand required for the peak hour to maybe make the subway have any chance of making a go of it. Come out to UBC and see for yourself. Observe the empty “bursting” at the seams 99 b-lines blowing soot into people’s lungs to impair the health of people and running underneath electric trolleybus lines intended for electric trolleybuses. It’s quite the sight. Every day is exactly the same at TransLink, nothing changes.
“I just do what I’ve been told. I repeat the same routine.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osPMdRyGv1k
Millenium extension will replace at least two bus routes (#84&99), maybe 3 (#33). Ridership will increase like it did on the canada line. Total for canada, expo and Millenium lines is over 400,000 per day. Over 100 million per year.
http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/Ridership/2017-q3-ridership-APTA.pdf —- Page 35
http://buzzer.translink.ca/2018/02/2017-a-record-year-for-transit-ridership-in-metro-vancouver/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SkyTrain_(Vancouver)
Zwei replies: You have made some wrong assumptions. The 99B will still operate from Broadway station, to carry the Expo Line transfers to UBC and most certainly the 99B will operate from Arbutus to UBC. The #84, which travels along 4th Avenue will also keep operating, to cater to customers from Main St. to UBC, via 4th.
I never have put much stock in statistics from TransLink (who also edit Wikipedia). There are 400,000 boardings on SkyTrain, which equates to less than 200,000 actual people. 80% of SkyTrain’s ridership first take a bus.
Much of the Canada lines ridership comes from bus customers from Richmond and South Delta/Surrey forced to transfer at BridgePort Station and yes, there are new customers, but not enough to warrant a $2.2 billion metro.
@eric chris
“You want the many people who work and live in Surrey to stay in Surrey and use public transit in Surrey.”
Why do you want to trap people in Surrey?
“You want the very few people who live in Surrey and work in Vancouver to drive. It cuts down on the number of cars on the roads. ”
Makes no sense. You want to increase traffic into Vancouver. There is lots of people who live south of fraser river drive to north of fraser to work. Just look at all the congestion on the bridges and tunnels.
“You don’t want rapid transit to be full of long distance commuters from Coquitlam so that by the time that rapid transit reaches Vancouver, people in Vancouver can’t board rapid transit in Vancouver. ”
Another BS statement. Many people from Coquitlam will transfer before getting to Vancouver. Some transfer at Lougheed for Surrey, Some transfer to SFU, Some transfer at commercial for downtown and South Burnaby.
The Broadway Line (aka the Millennium Line) will have roughly 65000-75,000 commuters a day going to Arbutus. Many of those will be from other lines the serve the 3 or 4 major corridors that feed into and out of UBC. However, it will be very difficult for it to ever get more than 100,000-120,000 thousand a day.
I feeling smug, just as I predicted that the cost of the extension would be around $2.8-$2.9 Billion.
What I wanted to say before my connection died and prematurely sent the first message was this. The Broadway Line (aka the Millennium Line extension) will have roughly 65,000-75,000 linked trips a day (not unlinked trips or boardings) travelling to Arbutus. Many of those passengers will be from the bus lines parallel to Broadway. The limited travel rapid transit route on Broadway and its premature end at Arbutus, will ultimately limit growth on that line between 100,000-125,000 a day.
Still feeling really smug about the cost figure put out by Translink. Zwei, will confirm this, I predicted the line would initially cost between $2.8-2.9 Billion. I think it might slip even a little closer to $3 Billion after it goes out to tender and certain incidentals like development risk are added on!
In Canada there is a simple rule of thumb about converting boardings to linked trips. Multiply the unlinked trips or boardings by 0.6 to 0.625 to convert it to linked trips. This rule applies for a city and transit network as large and complex as Vancouver’s. As the cities and transit networks get smaller and less complex the multiplier gets closer to 1. So 400,000 unlinked trips is about 240,000-250,000 linked trips.
@eric chris
99 don’t use trolly because you can’t overtake other trolly on the road, the overhead line is not designed for passing. Wait for the battery electric bus.
Zwei replies. Electric trolleys can have passing loops and express lanes as was Hastings St.
I never made any wrong assumptions. I went to open house and they said #99 will be shortened and turn around at arbutus after phase 1 of extension is completed. After phase 2 to ubc is completed then #99 will be eliminated. How the bus will turn around at arbutus is a mystery but will happen.
The #84 starts where the millennium line currently ends. If millennium line is extended then it becomes redundant. Millennium line will stop on Main Street to collect people in that area. West of Granville, the 84 bus duplicates the #4 ubc from downtown. The city of Vancouver is planning an LRT on part of the route served by #84. The #84 bus will be redundant and not needed.
Zwei replies: I don’t disbelieve you, but I asked the same question and the answer was the 99B would remain in operation to Broadway Station to cater to the Expo line customers. This is because the limited capacity of the Millennium Line to accept Expo Line transfers in peak hours.
There will not be a phase 2 and I predict he subway will not reach UBC until about 50 years from now, if ever.
Modern Trolley Buses can go off wire to pass, they just have to get back to a safe secure reconnect zone. They aren’t too difficult to set up, the driver just has to make sure that the bus is in the correct position to reattach and make electrical contact with both poles. Some models can go several km’s at cruising speed before it is necessary to reconnect. This is assuming your transit agency wants to spend about $1 million or more per articulated bus. Trolley Buses aren’t cheap anymore. A standard diesel articulated bus can cost between $625,000 to $750,000 per unit depending on the size of the order, design features/options and the maintenance/parts package chosen.
I was talking to contractor I know about construction costs. A common Caterpillar D9 bulldozer will cost anywhere from $30k to $60 a month. This is for just one bulldozer. This doesn’t include insurance and the cost of the operator. The D9 isn’t the smallest or the largest you can get. A new one will start at $1.2 Million (Canadian). A new backhoe costs anywhere from $400,000-$500,000. Like a dozer they can cost anywhere from 30,000-$60,000 a month to use, again that doesn’t include insurance or the operator. Costs in the construction industry are increasing 6-9% a year. Currently inflation is about 2.3% per year for the economy as a whole. That means construction costs are doubling every 8-12 years.
As I said many times before, structural reinforced concrete has been increasing in cost ( for various complex reasons) around 3 times the rate of inflation continent wide, for the last 2 and half decades. The reasons for the increase are different in different areas of North America. Here in Ontario it’s about $375-$400 per cubic metre for heavy grade structural reinforced concrete. Any project that needs a lot of above grade or below grade concrete, like your standard Skytrain extension, is royally screwed!
@Haveacow connection take extra time, I don’t think thats what people want on an express bus.
@zwei @Tim I guess what they mean is most of the 99 will stop at Arbutus (maybe turn around using Burrard and 12th) and some will go through Commercial-Broadway for peak transfer, much like nowadays some 99 goes to Boundary Rd.
@tensorflow would you rather have your trolley bus have to wait 10-15 seconds to have the trolley poles reconnect or spend 10-15 minutes on a long commute needlessly trapped behind slow moving traffic.
First mile and last mile drawbacks of light-metro by the “planners” at TransLink has been solved by the e-pod vehicle which has a very small frontal area and ultra-low drag force for low power use and super energy efficiency that light-metro can’t match, not even close; the e-pod vehicle can curb road congestion in Metro Vancouver by 60%. Best of all, the e-pod vehicle makes the Broadway subway and planners at TransLink redundant. TransLink can now be dissolved to put all the money presently squandered to finance TransLink’s bureaucracy doing nothing to curb road congestion into affordable housing and health care, instead. Outstanding.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EX43NuPATUc