A Pre Election Band Aid
When the provincial government spends in excess of $16 billion to extend the somewhat obsolete Movia Automatic Light Metro (a.k.a. SkyTrain) system a mere 21.7 km, the regional transit system as a whole suffers.
The federal government is partly at fault for this growing financial debacle by compelling the provincial government to continue building with the proprietary light-metro system, which patents were once owned by Bombardier Inc. and SNC Lavalin, simply to keep jobs in Quebec and Ontario.
Unlike the American government which vets all transit projects, receiving federal aide, must be peer reviewed. In BC we continue throw good money after bad on the now obsolete light metro system; a transit system which has an international reputation of a Ford Edsel.
$1.5 billion, over ten years amounts to $150 million annually, which would build about 350 metres for elevated light metro and a mere 160 metres of subway construction per year!
By comparison $150 million could by us about 10 to 15 kilometres of RftV’s Marpole to Chilliwack regional railway, per year!
The Liberals, under Carney, must demonstrate some largess of cash to buy votes for the soon to be called election (and maybe called before I post this) as one does not win votes telling politcans to spend within their own (read the taxpayer’s) means.
We are living in dangerous times with a bellicose President Trump wanting to invade Canada and an even more warlike Putin, threatening an ever encompassing war in Europe.
If I were metro politcans and TransLink, I would not be counting your financial eggs before they hatch and start planning for a leaner and meaner regional transit system, because what the federal government promises today, maybe stopped by a national emegancy, such as a massive tariff assault by the American government or worse, war in Europe.
It is “interesting times” we live in and out politcal leaders should be far more prudent with our scarce transit dollars, but of course, never before an election and in Metro Vancouver the word “prudent” is not in the lexicon of elected officials or their bureaucrat masters!
TransLink to receive over $1.5B over 10 years from Ottawa
Posted March 21, 2025
Another $1.5 billion in federal funding has been promised for local transit projects.
The money was announced Friday morning, with Ottawa calling it long-term, predictable funding for the growth and maintenance of public transit in Metro Vancouver.
It will come through the creation of what’s called the Metro-Region Agreement, starting next year.
“The federal government is investing in public transit projects across the country to ensure that more Canadians are connected to jobs, services, and their communities. These sustained infrastructure investments are key to growing the strongest economy in the G7,” the statement from the federal government said.
“Metro Vancouver’s public transit network is one of the busiest in Canada, connecting the municipalities within the region with bus, SkyTrain, West Coast Express and SeaBus services.”
This is on top of $663 million in funding TransLink recently received from Ottawa, and “builds on great investments in the region, including almost $1.5 billion in support of the Surrey-Langley Skytrain and the Millennium Line Broadway Extension projects.”
“The Metro-Region Agreement will also look to accelerate the positive role that public transit can play in creating sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous communities. The Agreement will help ensure that all orders of government are aligned in their efforts to get the most out of investments in public transit to create more complete, transit-oriented communities, improve the housing supply and affordability, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” the federal government said.
1130 NewsRadio has reached out to the Metro Vancouver Mayors’ Council for comment.
When will it ever stop?
It astounds us that your government keeps on subsidizing your transit system without any sort of scrutiny. On our side of the pond, such amounts of money would have a senior governments investigating why such money is needed.
Last year translink budget $2.6 billion but Actual $2.3 billion. Increase in ridership above estimates additional revenue. Additional revenue sources this year development cost charge and canadian Community building fund.
Is the four projects that are cost overruns:
SLS
BSP
OMC4
MTC
Most other projects under translink have been reduced in half due to competitive bidding process.
Debt $4.1 billion dollar or gross interest cost of a % of operational revenue 10.3%
BSP and SLS project are under ITCorp projects are completed. +$7 billion dollars of debt transfer to translink. Or gross interest cost as a percent of operational revenue +27%
Translink can legally have up to 20 billion dollars worth of debt.
TTC can legally hold up to 12 billion dollars worth at debt.
One time funding is short by 3/4
Currently, translink has secured 1/4
Next 10 year investment plan 2026-2036.
The only other party that hasn’t agreed to is the BC government.
Zwei replies: I keep repeating this as nauseam and i will do so again. Until there is an independent audit of transit ridership, TransLink’s numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. I have been told by bus drivers that TransLink is purposely reducing capacity on key transit routes to give the impression of overcrowding, to secure more funding. The total cost of the Broadway Subway/Langley extension is now topping $16 billion leaving a massive shortfall in funding. (One estimate I have now heard that the total program is now $5 billion in the hole and counting) Wit the tariff war looming this may skyrocket by up to 15% to 20%, while at the same time tax revenues will decline to do unemployment and less car use. Eby is out of his league with Transit and having the bumbling Farnsworth in charge only means the NDP have other plans.
The prize for the NDP is the Broadway subway to UBC and there is zero funding for this as the cost is now passing $8 billion, with quiet planning taking place to build it elevated West from Macdonald to save $2 billion,, but would be a politcal death sentence for those supporting it. Actually prep work is going on for the extension, yet there is no budget.
It’s not the endless subsidies that’s really the issue. Currently, Translink is still short of operatIonal funding. What they really need is an updadated funding formula that takes into account their current funding realities. Quite frankly, for many transit systems in Canada they are trying to run a pre-Covid schedule (non working from home) and funding it with a funding model that is out of date and quickly becoming obsolete. The current funding formula heavily relies on gas and fuel taxes, predicated in the reality that most people from the high up management to the lowest worker on the seniority list travels to a 9 to 5 job Monday to Friday. This isn’t even the reality for most workers anymore. The funding formula that also relies on automobile registration and licensing fees for a population that can afford to buy a new car every 4 to 5 years. This is also not the reality anymore. Not only do electric cars not use gas but are also incredibly expensive. The majority of the population can’t afford to buy a new electric car every 4 to 5 years. A significant minority can not afford to buy an electric car at all. Even a gasoline powered one is beyond reach.
As the MALM system (as used on the Expo and millennium Lines) is proprietary, there is no real bidding process the the big question will be either to continue the subway to UBC or build it elevated and save $2 billion.
Where do you get these numbers from?
It is not costing $16billion.
Extension to Langley is 6 billion. Cost increased 50% because they kept delaying it. It should have been completed in this year and would have cost less than 4 billion.
Broadway extension to Arbutus is costing less than 3 billion and is almost completed.
No one really knows the true cost and only know the cost they have released to the public. That is $5.9 billion for Langley and $2.9 billion for Broadway extension to Arbutus. Delays do push up costs.
Further extensions to UBC will never happen and too expensive.
Zwei Replies: The total program includes 21.7 km extensions of the Expo and Millennium Lines; re-signalling to increase capacity; renewal of the electrical supply; guideway alterations to accommodate larger radii switches, and a new Operations and Maintenance centre, and new cars.
Expo Line extension to Langley – now $6 billion cost will increase.
Millennium Line extension (Broadway subway) – last cost estimate by TransLink $3 billion, real cost estimate $3.5 billion to $4 billion
Re-signalling – Cost $1.47 billion, contract let in 2022. Expo Line Max capacity 17,500 pphpd – Millennium Line max. Cap. 7,500 pphpd.
Electrical renewal – estimate $1.5 to $2 billion.
Operations and Maintenance Centre #5 $1 billion.
Switch replacement program $500 million+
Cars costs not included.
Total cost $13.97 billion to $14.97 billion not including cars and if one adds the other minor work that is part of the program and the cars needed the cost is $16 billion and that cost is expected to rise. There is about a $3 to $4 billion shortfall in funding.
Zwie Replies: The following is complicate, as Translink Trolls try to make it and i will reply when needed
What’s going on with skytrain expansion cost?
-Skytrain expansion program (STEP)
Old Budget cost $1.7 billion dollars.
Zwei: The original budget was $1.63 billion for light rail.
OMC 4(includes automated yard)
Old Budget $658 million
New Budget 1,298,901,000
1.Maintain MK 5
2. Additional storage for BSP exclusively storing MK 2
OCC 2(includes signaling upgrade)
Old Budget:$110 million
New Budget:$326,795,000
1.MK5 integration.
2.Additional super computers.
3. Replacement of fiber optics
4.integration OCC 1 super computers.
New guideway shop
Budget?
1. New bigger shop
2. New rail maintenance equipment
3. New 2 skytrain storage tracks
Upgrade OMC 1
Budget $91,333,00
1. Extending the wash track
2. Adding 2 more maintenance tracks.
3. New maintenance equipment MK 5
Zwei: As we see published budgets have little veracity with Translink because they know the provincial government in the end will always “buck up”, because SkyTrain is built strictly for politcal reasons and not transit reasons.
Additional electric Transformers
Budget $146,129,000
1.Across network 12 upgraded or new substations
Zwei: You or Translink has forgotten that entire electrical installations has to be replaced on the Expo line, which i have been told will include about 30K kilometres of new wiring, due to the old kit aging out. The real cost is between $1.5 to $2 billion.
MK 5 train order 205 car
Old Budget $723 million
New Budget 1,093,108
Skytrain replacement and upgrades of emergency exits
Zwei: Wow! that is now $5.3 million per car! Modern trams cost less and have a much higher capacity! The fleet replace has more to with Alstom abandoning production of MALM than the older cars aging out.
Platform end upgrades
Budget $78 million
https://www.translink.ca/-/media/translink/documents/about-translink/corporate-reports/business_plan/2025-business-plan-operating-and-capital-budget-summary.pdf
Zwei: That is just for this year not a total of work already done
Surrey to Langley skytrain extension (SLS)
Project spending for the month of January 2025 was $68.9 million
Spending up January 2025: $981.8 million
Budget: $5.996 billion
IT Corp say under project overview:
“Additionally, the project includes 30 new SkyTrain cars, and funding toward initial planning, development, and advance works for a Maintenance and Storage Facility to store and service SkyTrain vehicles.”
https://surreylangleyskytrain.gov.bc.ca/app/uploads/sites/938/2025/03/SLS_Monthly-Status-Report_January_2025.pdf
Zwei: So a $1.63 billion light rail project is now a $5.996 billion light metro project, which will cater to traffic flows less than the current
Broadway B-99 bus. The $5.996 cost is suspect because I got the heads up from someone involved saying the cost with out OMC#5 will be around $7.5 billion when completed He wanted to know where I got my figures because they are embarrassingly accurate!
Broadway Subway project (BSP)
Project spending for the month of January 2025 was $29.9 million
Spending up January 2025: $1.77 billion
Budget: $2.954 billion
https://www.broadwaysubway.ca/app/uploads/sites/626/2025/03/BSP_Monthly_Status_Report_January_2025.pdf
Zwei: Ian Fischer, Manager, Operations Planning at bcrtc · British Columbia Rapid Transit Company, commented in the LRTA’s Modern Tramway & Urban Transit, that the cost for the Broadway subway was $3 billion. Again it is now assumed that the Broadway subway will cost between $3.5 to $4 billion.
Skytrain extensions and improvements 2025 budget cost $11.982 billion
4 billion dollars off from the current budget.
Zwei: Translink’s “current budgets” is more of a politcal document than a financial one. My estimate for the cost of the total program is around $16 billion in 2025 dollars and that estimate will only go up. Some of my information comes from sensitive ministries and I can say this, there is growing worry that the cost for the 21.7 km extension of the E&M Lines is growing out of control.
A final prediction: As the government is short of $3 to $4 billion for the project, the Langley extension may stop at 168th St. with the funding going to complete the subway in Vancouver.
By the way it’s not 205 Mk 5 Cars, its 41, 5 section vehicles, at approximately 17.63 Million per 5 section vehicle. With entirely new sub systems not the longer versions of the Mk 3 trains with similar equipment that the BCRTC thought it was getting. You see guys, Bombardier promised the Mk 5 wouldn’t be filled with new tech. They changed the designs and brought in new systems, all before their surface transportation group was sold off. This is forcing the BCRTC to now pay for expensive maintenance training and equipment they never budgeted for. Alstom threatened them you better pay up for the new training or else. The court case between BCRTC/Translink and Alstom was settled out of court. However, the fact remains far more money is being spent by BCRTC than planned. Money nobody has.
Thank you for this. This should be news in BC, but like everything SkyTrain, it is quietly being swept under the carpet.