Rumours!

There is a lot of transit news, but most of it is about TransLink’s insatiable need for money and delays to the completion of the Broadway subway. The strange claim that the provincial government making highways “LRT compatible”, has thankfully been ignored by the media and what is left is rumours.

The latest rumour, which I have heard from three different sources is that the 16 km, $5 billion, Expo Line extension to Langley is to be cut back to a 7 km extension to 168th St. in Surrey.

What is interesting is that the rumour seems to be be a face saving “trial balloon” from a NDP/Translink axis and is based on the premise that the federal Liberal government will use the $1.4 billion, earmarked for the full 16 km Line to fund the shorter 7 km line.

From my understanding the federal infrastructure program monies ($1.4 billion) was for a 16 km line and a 7 km line would be basically be an entirely new line needing a new funding program and all the issues that would come with this.

Evidently both Premier Eby and Prime Minister Trudeau are eager for “shovel in the ground” photo-ops for the next round of provincial/federal elections as the delayed Broadway subway would make a poor background for this. As resurging provincial and federal Conservative Party is spearheading this desire.

I think there is some truth to this rumour, as the Expo Line extension to Langley is grossly expensive for what it will do; $5 billion for 16 km of line could buy one a lot more light rail or even a whole lot more of Rapid Bus for this price.

Then there is the retirement from politics of Rob Fleming, current Minister of Transportation. A canceled rapid transit project would not make a good politcal resume and if the project is cancelled after his departure from provincial politics, it would make a politcal comeback far more easier.

As per the last News Release from TransLink and the provincial NDP, the cost of the 16 km extension to Langley was in the spring of 2024:

Guideway – $4.01 billion – firm, 40% Federal funding.

Stations – ? – to be negotiated.

Track – ? – to be negotiated.

Signalling – ? – to be negotiated.

Electrical supply – ? – to be negotiated.

Six – 5-car train-sets – $123 Million – signed contract.

Operations and Maintenance Centre #5 – $500K to $1 billion – not determined.

With the exception of the OMC #5, the items still in negotiations may add another $600 million to $700 million to the final cost and this is in 2024 dollars! This makes the 16 km Langley extension very close to $5 billion and it is both making TransLink and the provincial NDP very nervous indeed.

As I stated before, this is merely an observation of a rumour and I have not even touched the rumours with the Broadway subway and if those are anywhere close to being true, TransLink itself may become financially untenable.

Comments

4 Responses to “Rumours!”
  1. Haveacow says:

    Ok I’m confused. Is the rumor saying that, the cutback Langley extension of 7 km still costs $4.01 Billion or is there going to be a new price for the shorter line?

  2. zweisystem says:

    What I was told is that TransLink and the the provincial Premier wants the $1.6 (40%) billion federal portion for the 16 km line, spent on the revised 7 km line. And this from three separate sources.

    I also have been told by one source that federal monies earmarked for the Expo Line extension has been spent on the Broadway subway, which is now due to open sometime in 2026/27. Evidently, the issues with the Broadway subway are far more problematic than TransLink is letting on.

  3. Haveacow says:

    What I don’t understand is what is the new cost for 7 km of Skytrain?

    In projects like this, you don’t just announce we are only going to build 7 km instead of 16 km unless, that 7 km’s is now equal to the cost of the available budget. Since the available budget is still $4.01 Billion, is that now the cost of 7 km of Skytrain? Or is there a new cost for 7km of Skytrain? That is extremely important to know.

    The federal money for the Expo Line Langley extension ($1.62 Billion) can’t be transfered to another project without due diligence and public scrutiny, that’s illegal. It’s also federal government rules that state, deployed infrastructure money can be reallocated however, and its a big however, public notice must be given and publicly stated with evidence. The federal money in these types of programs is used to support and secure other funding. Suddenly changing this without notice and evidence can open the federal government to potential fraud charges. I don’t believe that part of the rumor.

    Zwei replies: I said the same thing in a reply to one of the parties; “According to the rules of the game, if the line is to be cut back, literally, the whole project must start from scratch, as the P-3 portion of the federal money will have changed. Basically it will be all or nothing.”

    My gut feeling is that there is something very wrong going on and the government, not wanting to lose face, is keeping a lid on it.

  4. Haveacow says:

    Thought you should know this information.

    The SLS Project consists of the following separately procured and staggered contracts:

    1.Guideway Contract – including substructures, superstructures, roadworks, and utilities, procured under a Design-Build-Finance (DBF) model.

    2.Stations Contract – including eight passenger stations, nine propulsion power substations, and 250m of guideway construction at the terminus station, procured under a Design-Build (DB) model.

    3.Systems and Trackwork Contract – including trackwork, power rail and linear induction motor (LIM) rail system, communications,

    All 3 contractors were chosen in March and April of this year.

    1. The Guideway Contractor is a consortium called SkyLink Guideway Partners

    The provincial government made the announcement Thursday, March 7, and the group will design, build and finance the elevated guideway and associated roadworks, utilities and active transportation elements of the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain.

    SkyLink Guideway Partners (SLGP) is comprised of Dragados Canada, Inc., Ledcor Investments Inc., Ledcor Mining Ltd. and SYSTRA International Bridge Technologies Inc. The design-build contractor is Dragados Canada, Inc. and Ledcor Mining Ltd. while the design contractor is SYSTRA International Bridge Technologies Inc.
    ound the new stations.

    2. The Staion Contractor announded on April 8 2024 is the South Fraser Station Partners to enter into contract negotiations. The South Fraser Station Partners team is comprised of:

    Aecon Constructors, a division of Aecon Construction Group Inc.;
    Acciona Infrastructure Canada Inc.;
    Pomerleau BC Inc.; and
    AECOM Canada Ltd.

    3 The Systems and Track work Contractor was announced April 30, 2024 and is Transit Integrators BC to enter into final contract negotiations. The Transit Integrators BC team is comprised of:

    AtkinsRéalis Major Projects Inc.
    AtkinsRéalis Canada Inc.
    Western Pacific Enterprises Ltd.

    Since work has started we can conclude that negotiations were successful for all 3 consortia chosen.

    The question I want to know what has changed to suddenly start rumors?

    Zwei replies: I think the delays and possible cost overruns on the Broadway subway and TransLink being a minimum $600 million in the hole probably is the basis for this.

    Giving Translink more money is not good politics at this point in time and even the SLS project has waned in public support.

    From my viewpoint, increasing taxes will be politcal suicide and the main reason Rustad’s Conservatives are topping the NDP in the polls.

    From what I have been told, except for the guideway, all other costs were still being negotiated and TransLink has not given a full cost of the project.

    The present Surrey council and the Township of Langley have no enthusiasm for the SLS, with only the City of Langley still on board. Like the Broadway subway, it is all about land development and payoffs to politcal friends, the ones that donate heavily to civic politcal parties, land speculators and land developers.

Leave A Comment