The 2024 Provincial Election And Transit
How will the 2024 provincial election impact transit?
Hard to answer but, the current major “rapid transit” (Expo and Millennium Lines) projects are seeing a funding shortfall of around $4 billion and it is hard to see the new Parliament in Victoria approving funding, for what is now largely seen a “prestige” transit projects.
Oh, the politcans and bureaucrats will chatter on and on about the need of rapid transit and further embarrass themselves about global warming, but the funding is needed elsewhere, especially in the “Hurtlands” of BC.
This could lead to the Millennium Line’s Broadway subway terminating at Granville St or Burrard instead of Arbutus. The now $6 to $7 billion Expo Line extension to Langley will now be most likely deferred, with funding going to BRT planning and operation. Adios to Federal funding as by the time, the project gets on track, inflation and lack of federal funding will condemn the Expo Line extension to Langley to the history books.
Sigh …… and Surrey could have in operation today a $1.65 billion LRT line, with extensions to Langley now nearing completion.
One SkyTrain Line in Surrey will do nothing for traffic congestion or gridlock and hopeful more sane transit planning will take place.
Both the Rail for the Valley “Leewood Plan” will continue to be ignored and the E&N will continue to rot, because far too many elected officials and their bureaucratic henchmen have far too much “cred” and politcal investment in building light metro.
What will not be curtailed is BC’s now infamous “Black Top Politics” where building wider roads, new bridges (strangely not tunnels) and new highways will be top of the list.
In the short term it will be “rubber on asphalt” based transit, which will keep the Road Builders Association; the cement manufacturers, and Unions happy. The Carbon Tax will remain as a placebo, for the provincial government, pretending it is doing something to mitigate global warming and climate change, when in fact they are not.
For further insult to those concerned about climate change, the revenues from the Carbon Tax will go to fund new road projects, which in turn entice more vehicular traffic to our already over-stressed roads.
Induced demand is not in the NDP’s or Conservative’s lexicon, as is Global Warming and climate change.
BC politics at its best.
Addendum
The Greens self immolated themselves by not sticking to truly Green issues. Instead of the free transit nonsense, they should have campaigned for the restoration of the E&N into a modern regional railway. I would wager making the E&N part of their election campaign, they would have garnered one or two additional seats on Vancouver Island.
I have a question that may seem off topic but I will show its connection to the current Translink situation both operationally and financially. How old is the current Electric Trolley Bus fleet?
You see,, as I or we both Zwei and I predicted correctly, oh so many years ago that, if Skytrain building (capital) costs kept increasing as they have done, there might not be enough money to construct both the Langley extension and the Millennium Line extension at the same time. The federal government indicated recently that, no further extra capital funding would be issued for Langley or any existing rapid transit project to cover inflationary cost increases.
At the same time, the post Covid funding reality was coming and there is now a critical need to redo Translink’s funding formula due to the lack of gas tax funds, mainly due to increases in battery electric car purchases and inelastic taxes of residential properties (they can’t go up too much because people could loose their homes). Even if ridership returned or increased above pre-Covid levels the existing formula was incapable of handling existing funding at the time. They need a new funding formula now!
So how much is a new Trolley Bus fleet? I honestly don’t know? They are niche transit vehicles that make them expensive to purchase. Is the cost of new buses and continued overhead wire maintenance low enough to counter the cost of modern Battery Electric buses (which are really expensive due to the still vastly immature technology).
What I do know is that a decision on the Langley extension’s future is coming. Either continue or not because a shorter stub line is a horrendous waste of money that provides less utility on a longer complete line that had very little utility to begin with.
Plus, you have the people who definitely want the Millennium Line extension to U.B.C,. that will not happen if the line to Langley is built even as a an incomplete stub line. There’s simply not enough money and the Province of B.C. is going to pay for nearly all of future Skytrain extensions. The days of the feds, provincial and local governments paying their equal 1/3 each, is dead and gone. The local goverments don’t have any money and the federal government will have less and less available for infrastructure money. Especially, if the Conservatives get elected in Ottawa.
Any further construction of the existing Arbutus extension and further extension to U.B.C. of the Millennium Line further disrupts the main access route of the entire Trolley Bus network, essentially a line axis that spans along the Broadway Corridor. So, does Translink want to save the Trolley Bus network after the construction of the current or planned Millennium Line extensions? Will the Trolley Bus survive?. Where will that money come from? None of your political parties are giving any clear guidance beyond building these Skytrain lines, none have any concrete funding ideas for local transit operating budgets. It’s clear they have no ideas beyond the ribbon cutting event.
Zwei replies: You are right on topic as the trolley fleet is in jeopardy, but I would think it would be politcal suicide if TransLink abandons the trolley bus system.
Some years ago I predicted this because of the huge amount of monies that was being paid into the light-metro system, but was mocked for this. Here is the big problem, TransLink has not been honest and has so mislead the public about everything and this involves the Mayor’s Council, that it has become a municipal ponzi scheme.
The next shoe to fall is the Broadway Subway and how much money is needed to complete it just to Arbutus.
From where I stand and from what local news I have heard, Translink is seeing a $3 to $4 billion shortfall in funding for the SkyTrain expansion plans. I also got wind that the federal Liberals are tired of the Langley extension and with the recent results of the provincial election, they have written off BC and just might pull the funding with the excuse that the extension is not well planned and gold plated, heaping the blame on TransLink and the NDP.
Another quick question, is the graphic you show the current seat allotment in B.C’s provincial legislature or the projected allotment based on polling? Wow that’s close, either way.
Zwei replies: Yest that is the current seat allocations, but the recounts will be finalized this weekend.
“That the MVRD Board approve $475.84 million in funding from the Greater Vancouver Regional Fund
for the following transit projects proposed by TransLink in its Application for Federal Gas Tax Funding
as attached to the report dated October 5, 2022, titled “TransLink Application for Federal Gas Tax
Funding for 2023 Fleet Replacement”:
a) 188 Conventional Trolley Bus Replacements and
b) 84 Conventional Renewable Natural Gas Bus Replacements.”
https://metrovancouver.org/boards/Finance/FIN_2022-Oct-13_AGE.pdf
“Furthermore, in December 2023, the federal government announced it would cover half of the $27 million cost to upgrade TransLink’s overhead trolley wires that feed electricity to the trolley bus vehicles, including replacing up to 600 trolley poles, 60 km of running wire, and six km of underground cable. This work will extend the lifespan of the overhead trolley infrastructure by up to 60 years.”
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/translink-trolley-bus-fleet-replacement-bidding-procurement
Zwei replies: Read Mr. Cow’s post again, it is about today’s and tomorrows costs, not yesterday’s costs. Nothing in the budget about the cost of new trolleybuses.
The problem with battery powered buses is that they are very costly and proprietary, just ask Edmonton …..
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-buses-proterra-1.7035186
The same goes with hydrogen powered buses, huge issues and questionable performances.
Again the issue is money.
Legoman consider that just to keep their budget intact, Translink has warned that 40%-50% of their service is to be cut as early as next year.
Battery Electric buses are double the purchase cost of diesel buses and you have to purchase 30%-33% more battery electric buses than diesel buses, to maintain the same level of service, due to a large proportion of the fleet needs to be charging. Even a quick charging battery bus takes multiple hours to charge, all while reducing battery life by 25%, compared to standard charging battery buses. A diesel tank can be filled from empty to full, in less than 5 minutes.
There are few manufacturers of Trolley buses left and they cost easily 1.5 to 2.2 times the cost of a diesel bus however, Vancouver already has a network of overhead wires for those buses, so use them.
Last time I looked Translink had 74 articulated (18m or 60′ long) and 188 standard length (12m or 40′ long) buses. Currently after a little phone call to a friend in Edmonton Transit (whom also used trolley buses), a new trolley bus costs $1.1-$1.3 million per 12m trolley bus not counting training, maintenance training packages and parts packages plus any extra battery tech (for operating off wire). The costs balloon to $1.8-$2.25 million for larger articulated models. That’s a minimum of $415.2 Million to replace a fleet (a bargain basement fleet replacement by the way). Unfortunately, you have to either rebuild or replace your fleet every 12 to 18 years, which is standard for most buses.
I have no idea how much overhead wire replacement and maintenance is every year for Translink, although I’m sure you can find it. Those costs unfortunately will only include regular year to year maintenance not capital upgrade costs.
The battery -electric bus is roughly, 10%-20% more per bus than a trolley bus (with all the other costs not included that I mentioned already), also not included are replacement battery costs and charging stations and their maintenance costs.
The point is, its not cheap. Especially with a big operating funding crash coming. Spending 6 Billion on a Skytrain line extension to Langley and the still unknown increase in the cost of the Arbutus extension and every important person in Vancouver, desperately wanting another Skytrain extension to U.B.C., also with a big unknown cost, all with absolutely no certainty in capital funding.
I feel the pennies offered by the federal government to upgrade the Trolley Bus network and fleet will be useless. It’s most likely that, the current government will be out of power soon and unfortunately replaced by a anti-urban Conservative party, poised to take power and undo everything the Liberals have done. So don’t count on any federal money.
It’s hard politically and practically to build up a rapid transit network if you are more than likely about to loose large portions of your Trolley Bus network. While their environmentally sensitive replacements cost more and you can’t afford either of them trolley bus or batteru-electric bus and you have to introduce large spending cuts to the operating budget on top of that.
Your transit funding situation in B.C. is exactly like Ontario’s in early 1990’s. The Ontario NDP promised Toronto 60 km’s of subway, 6 km were actually built.It took almost a decade after that to build another 2 km. A decade and a half after that before any new extension opened. This is the funding reality B.C. is about to enter.This has all happened before, nothing new under the sun. The pendulum is swinging back.
The election shows a majority do not support the NDP. 47 MLA.
This could lead to the Millennium Line’s Broadway subway terminating at Granville St or Burrard instead of Arbutus.
That is funny. The tunnel has been completed to arbutus. The construction now is at the stations and in the tunnel.
Zwei replies: Obviously you don’t have a clue what you are talking about and i would suggest you read up on Charleroi M5 extension which was built, track laid and remained unused for about 20 years and may be opened for revenue traffic in 2026. There is a large amount of work to be done on then Broadway subway and tunnel construction is just a small part of the whole.
Block #2107703 bus #23203 via: T-Comm
5:36:00 – 100 Marpole via Trapp
6:17:00 @ 50738 Marpole Loop @ Bay 1
6:29:00 @ 52123 Marpole Loop @ Bay 5
7:04:00 @ 58322 22nd Street Station @ Unloading Only
7:19:00 – 100 Marpole via Trapp
103 min Round-trip.
27 min(3 min of moving Unloading stop to Departing stop.)Ideal Charging time 25 min or Downtime of 19-25%
https://tcomm.bustrainferry.com/mobile/model
15 LFSE+ HTC Hamilton Transit Centre $16M
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/translink-electric-battery-bus-route-novabus-100
54 LFSE+ PTC Port Coquitlam Transit Centre $154M
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/translink-metro-vancouver-federal-gas-tax-fund-2021
263, 217 LFSE+ 45 XE60 or 18M Solaris MTC new Marpole Transit Centre $470M
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024MOTI0051-000581
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/marpole-transit-centre-translink-electric-battery-bus-depot-vancouver
Electric Trolleybus demonstration unit from Solaris trialed in August 2023
https://www.solarisbus.com/en/press/tests-of-the-solaris-trollino-trolleybus-in-canada-2033
2023 Conventional Trolleybus Replacement $414M
2028 Articulated Trolleybus Replacement (Pilot)
2028 Articulated Trolleybus Replacement $254M
Total Cost as 2024
OMC 4 $331 M
OMC5 (earlier stages works) $777M
Surrey Langley SkyTrain Project Development $264M
PTC Infrastructure to Support Battery Electric Buses $78M
Compass Modernization $220M
https://www.translink.ca/-/media/translink/documents/plans-and-projects/ten-year-investment-plan/public-consultation/2024-investment-plan-approved.pdf
SLS 90% Public funding and 10% Private funds. Translink has committed $264 M Project. It is being managed by the ITco. That’s not directly managed by translink or the transport minister.
if Con Majority Priority Restrict translink and Skytrain to Newton.
if NDP Majority UBCX and BIRT Skytrain Expansions.
Translink new funding model Proposal for Parliament is supposed to take place 2025 June or July. If New funding model cannot be approved. Reduce service hours, no community shuttle bus routes, selling old equipment and no bus priority measures. Full detailed plan of service cuts will be announced in September 2025. Implementation on New Year’s Day 2026. Translink no problems securing grants, programs and bonds for capital projects.
Zwei Replies: TransLinkspiel of fear and loathing I am afraid.
Here is the basics – the province is facing an around $4 billion shortfall to complete two projects that were supposed to cost no more than $5 billion, which cost has soared to $16 billion.
In the past, the NDP closed schools and hospitals to fund SkyTrain expansion, but that route is lost due to a large population increase. The “Hurtlands” debacle has spawned the BC Conservative Party which almost won the last election.
As federal funding is about to collapse, anything that TransLink says, claims or more, should be taken with a grain of salt.
The tunnel may be dug but the tunnel is a concrete panel shell. There’s no power, no telecommunications, not even lighting, let alone tracks signaling equipment, or fire and safety gear. There are also only temporary breakaway panels on the tunnel ring where stations should be.
Stations in a tunnel have to be dug down from the surface in a open shaft then build around the pre dug tunnel.
Many new rail tunnels have used another method where you construct a larger diameter hollowed tunnel portion where the station is going to be and construct the station from inside the tunnel. At that point you then dig/build access routes to the surface for escalators, elevators and stairwells. Its done this way to minimize surface construction mess. It can be cheaper than traditional below grade station construction however, it depends on the complexity and depth of the station design.
Legoman the costs and programs you mentioned were older bus costs to completely replace the Trolley Bus fleet. $27 million in federal funding to then rewire a network you are planning to get rid of? Dirtier natural gas and conventional buses as well. You notice the Fed’s didn’t offer to help purchase battery-electric buses, to replace clean trolley buses?
By the way in 2022 it was $2.5-$3 Million per km for the overhead trolley bus wires alone (2 wires not just 1 with LRT). That’s not including transformers, rectifier and other needed gear. Like I said before, the Fed’s were offering pennies. This may seem expensive until you start pricing battery recharging station technology for battery- electric buses.
In Europe there are far too many uncompleted metro tunnels, with some, 200 to 400 metres long and some many kilometers long. In Germany some unused tunnels are used for mushroom farming.
Why unused?
The most simple of answer is geld or money, again in simple terms, funding was exhausted and the politcans had second thoughts on the projects.
We see the same issues and problems in Vancouver, which have been long predicted, your metro system is far too expensive for the job it is doing and in the end, as always elsewhere, funding stops and the project hits a financial wall.
When we were in Vancouver the politcans and bureaucrats we dealt with never gave a second thought to funding as they believed there would be ample monies to expand your metro system, on and on without stop. That may have been the politics of the 2000’s but not any more because the cost to build subways is rising almost exponentially. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are driving up the cost of cement, steel and other goods and what was deemed affordable back in the day, is no more.
Vancouver has two operating subways, one using a preexisting railway tunnel and one built by a contentious cut and cover process, with the later certainly overbuilt for what it does.
Now Vancouver wants a third subway, but the cost has risen much since the project was started and true to form the project is late and costing a lot more.
From previous comments and our dated view of Broadway, if we were in charge, we would terminate the train service at Broadway because we do not see any practical reason to continue on to Arbutus. The money saved, would mean an operational metro to a major transfer point, in operation, without the need for further funding.
Not, getting rid of the historic trolley network. TL Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5RjLIcd6nmBs2fACwr5OeT?si=2169760391964ab6
Funding was for new polls and copper wire. Replacing the wires done in-house. LRT pantograph under tension and zigzag pattern.
All federal funding going forwards would be for the permanent transit fund. Of New electric buses and Infrastructure. No operational funds from the federal government.
Arbutus skytrain station designed to be a temporary terminus with permanent one at UBC. Fully complete UBCX at some point. Some of the North South bus across vancouver will be terminating the new bus loop at arbutus. Instead of terminating in downtown Vancouver. Everything for the train equipment will be in place a year before station construction is over. What’s the concourse level build, Testing can begin. Like Metrolinks construction timeline. Testing will be completed before the stations.
Zwei replies: So, this is TransLink’s spiel, isn’t it.
What LRT pantagraphs? TransLink does not run LRT nor uses pantagraphs. As for arbutus, it will be the terminal station for decades to come, as there will be no extension to UBC in the foreseeable future. North shore buses terminating at Arbutus is sheer fantasy, why?
It is all about funding sunshine, something you remain ignorant about.
Blame for the mess in Metro Vancouver Transit System (especially South of the Fraser )
1. The main blame over the last 45 years is the BC government and the different agencies like MOTI, BC Transit and TransLink
( Most of the money was spent on Highways )
2. However since Nov. 2018 the main blame is Surrey BC politicians.
Surrey copied from its sister city of Brampton ( and Mississauga ) Ontario
By approving and then cancelling LRT.
End of the Line for Brampton’s LRT?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCHcUYlYPaI&t=22s 22.4 mins
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/brampton-is-rooting-for-you-1-brampton-councillor-s-take-on-hamilton-s-lrt-debate-1.4086237
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/45918/more-transit-coming-to-mississauga-and-brampton-families
After planning and financing of Surrey LRT was approved by all agencies and senior governments, the new Surrey City Council in Nov. 2018 rejected the Surrey LRT
As of Nov. 2024 6 years later, no rail rapid transit has been built and millions of potential transit trips did not happen.
( ie. more people South of the Fraser bought cars and mode share of cars has increased )
Surrey BC has less transit services than Brampton and or Mississauga cities of similar population in Ontario
These cities have local and regional bus services, regional rail as well as VIA Rail.
By continuing with the expensive SLS Surrey Langley SkyTrain there will be no money left for other transit projects in Metro Vancouver. and BC.
The above is a short DRAFT I wrote:
However, most of BC government transit capital money over the last 45 years was spent on SkyTrain bad technology that the public thought will be saving money as there are no drivers. But, we know now that both capital and operating costs of SkyTrain are more than other transit systems in Canada and the world..( either with drivers or without ).
With all parties supporting more SkyTrains, BC will have not enough money for more capital and operating money for other transit projects
Zwei replies: Operating costs for SkyTrain are about 40% to 60% higher than comparable light rail operations. One of the reasons this system is unsalable.