Will The Broadway Subway Solve Transit Issues?
In Metro Vancouver, The SkyTrain light metro system has had an interesting issue, no noticeable modal shift from car to train.
Yes, the light metro system carries a lot of customers but the vast majority have transferred from bus to light-metro. The bus system has been so designed to feed every bus customer onto the light metro system, which in turn may account for the steady decline of ridership on the regional transit system since 2018!
Instead of planning bus routes to meed the demands of the customer, bus routes are planned to meet the demands of politicians and that is to increase ridership numbers on the light metro system!
The following article is of interest, where £19 billion (CAD$35 billion) invested in the Elizabeth Line only saw a 1% modal shift from car to train!
Will the now over $16 billion investment in the Expo and Millennium Lines, actually take cars off the road?
Probably not.
Sadly, SkyTrain has not yet shown any noticeable modal shift from car to transit and $16 billion; 21.7 km of new line probably will have the same result as the newly built Elizabeth Line.
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Transport Leader Newsletter and Blog | Helping Transport Leaders Transform Mobility 11h
The Elizabeth Line in London has received rave reviews. But has it failed in its most important metric? The Elizabeth Line post-opening evaluation has been released: https://lnkd.in/gWF-TCbQ The Line carries 800,000 people every day. It’s the UK’s busiest rail service. Journey times dropped. Crowding reduced.
Accessibility improved dramatically across the network. But there’s an uncomfortable truth buried in the data. 🚇
Only 1% of riders switched from driving. Just 1%. Think about that for a moment. London spent nearly £19 billion on world-class public transport. The trains are fast and comfortable. Stations are modern and accessible. The service runs frequently and reliably. And almost nobody left their car at home.
80% of Elizabeth Line users simply switched from other trains.
They were already public transport riders. This isn’t a failure of the Elizabeth Line itself. The project delivered amazing results for London. But it exposes a hard truth about transport planning. 🚗
Here’s what the Elizabeth Line DID achieve:
• 9 million minutes saved per weekday across the network
• 71,000 new homes built near stations
• 11% reduction in step-free journey times
• Reduced crowding on other rail lines
These are real wins. They matter for people’s lives and London’s economy. But mode shift from cars? Almost zero.
This result shows we need both carrots and sticks. Better public transport alone won’t get people to give up their cars. We also need to make driving less appealing. Subscribe to my newsletter at transportlc.org/subscribe for insights like this every week.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/canada-public-transit-fund-building-communities-strong-fund
This is a link from the Daily Hive I missed in November, if you didn’t believe the Fed’s were cutting money spent on rapid transit projects here is the evidence, don’t tell me I didn’t warn you.
Rapid Transit has to be affordable guys and girls. Skytrain (Light Metros) just aren’t affordable compared to other rail systems like full scale heavy rail, metros, subways (whatever you want to call them) as well as LRT, BRT, DMU’s & EMU’s (as Diesel and Electric Hybrid LRT/Regional Rail lines) and of course, Tram-Trains.
Zwei Replies: Yes i read it and even commented on it but the Hive like Reece martin don’t like the truth and erased the comments. The Hive now calls me a troll because, golly gee whiz, I don’t agree with Chan!
The Hive is the unofficial mouthpiece of TransLink.
There is some news about the Broadway subway that may surface in the near future and if what I was told is true, it is going to shake Vancouver and the Metro Vancouver board. Metro Vancouver is desperately trying to put a lid on this and the premier is departing these lands on a “trade mission” to India, in case the dam bursts.
Contrary to the article, the stated reason (removing cars from the road) wasn’t the main impetus for the Elizabeth Line. Its main reason for being was to ensure London’s regional rail system could tie together a series of lines in both the extreme east and the extreme west of Greater London and create a high capacity central London line, so regional rail ridership which had been falling, didn’t continue to fall. This gave regional rail, in this one case, a competitive advantage compared to the overtaxed tube network. In this case regoonal rail passengers didnt have to transfer to the the tube network to complete the majority of the central London bound trips
The existing London Overground network (which is mostly former regional rail lines) has unfortunately topped out on its maximum ridership, due to the marginal nature of many of its existing lines. A north-south Elizabeth type line is currently under development but we will have to wait and see.
Skytrain is different because like London’s tube network it is the primary rail transit system in Vancouver. It’s hard to build new rapid transit ridership if 80% – 90% of your Skytrain riders are already bus users. That being said, at least the ridership of the Translink transit system isn’t in free fall like many American transit agencies right now.
The high cost of both the planning and building of the Skytrain unfortunately, doesn’t lend itself to organically increasing transit ridership directly from car commuters. Many of the planned future Skytrain lines won’t build much in new ridership simply because they are overly long, massive in terms of both scope and cost and dont tap into new untapped transit markets.
In case of one of them, the Line from the North Shore to Metrotown (the Purple Line) misses the whole reason the original transit study that spawned it was started. It was to get people from the Norhh Shore to downtown Vancouver. Not only does it go miles out of the way for the vast majority of its target ridership, it’s high cost makes just a simple tunnel under the Burrard Inlet, a better, cheaper more direct line. Ironically, the tunnel under the Burrard Inlet was dropped because of its high cost. It’s cheaper than the line which came out of the study process because that line is going way out of the way to Metrotown. Connecting directly to an existing line that’s already at or near its capacity (The Expo Line).
Most importantly, you won’t get even 10% of all those car drivers stuck on the bridges crossing between downtown and the North Shore. You wont even get a majority of the existing transit ridership because its not going where the majority of the existing ridership wanted to go, downtown Vancouver.
One more thing I forgot to mention, 1% in London is approximately 106,000 cars and vehicles, it is just 1 line folks. Remember Greater London is 26,000,000 people, a single line, no matter how long or expensive, isn’t going to remove millions of vehicles. A little perspective here people is important. If a single rapid transit line removed over 100,000 vehicles from the road we would over the moon about this, an screaming it from every roof top.
Zwei Replies: My bad, I was going to include the 1% and the number of cars, taking into account the huge population in Metro London.
If there is a tunnel for transit built under Burrard Inlet, it would probably be for the Canada Line, as it is just a regular railway, built as a light-metro (confusing isn’t it). But wait, it seems the NDP and the feds are planning to replace the current lift span crossing Burrard Inlet and in its place build a twin track bridge.
The following was from a Vaugh Palmer opinion piece from December 17.
VICTORIA — Premier David Eby called a news conference Wednesday to tout “major projects in B.C.,” hoping to provide an upbeat ending to a year fraught with “challenges,” not all of them of his own making.
Earlier in the day, Eby had a session with the federal government’s major projects office. He pushed them on the need to upgrade transportation infrastructure key to exports: Highway 1, the Massey tunnel, the single-track Second Narrows railway bridge, and the Port of Vancouver.
“The single-track Second Narrows railway bridge” is interesting and could it be that a double track bridge is in the planning process?
The CNR are going to mothball, the line from Squamish to 100 mile house, or either further up the line of the former BC Rail.
A double track bridge would be a must, (I might add a replacement bridge for the venerable Fraser River Bridge, which 3 railways use, plus AMTRAK would be a priority), if any form of “rail transit” to the North Shore is considered.
The recent “puff” piece about SkyTrain in the Hive tells me the NDP are saying adios to SkyTrain and planning for something cheaper with existing rails.
I do know those on the North Shore are very very concerned about the railway and rapid transit and the NDP looking for more affordable rail options may consider a commuter style rail link, possibly reaching as far as Whistler.
It also looks like the poor E&N folks are going to get stabbed in the back with the E&N, simply because the NDP consider Vancouver Island safe seats.
Post:
In metro Vancouver, people have used the skytrain and buses for going to special events. Coverage of Metro Vancouver is around 92.7% but 1/3 population use weekly. BRT plan has to be a higher order transit connection between major hubs. Like Surrey to White Rock. 99-B line articulated buses disperse, to the new BRT. 502 with 60,900 annual service hours to feed bus into SLS. Wake and see, if there’s a new increase in ridership when these projects are completed.
Mr haveacow:
No reducing or increasing the investment into the public transit fund. Managed by a different part of the government, the housing and infrastructure. Still waiting on any announcement on other transit agencies, metro region agreement. Translink, and Metro Vancouver Board $1.5B of expansion and $0.6 B replace. = or + BC Government complete BRT corridors and gondola. In the near-term, there will be no SkyTrain extensions on the horizon. If BC government just wants to fund the next part of skytrain expansion by themselves like the province of Ontario.
Mr zwei:
The seabus currently fine of lower Lonsdale. Outside of there will be convenience by bus of Elevation on the North Shore. People that can use the upper highway traveling burnaby and beyond. North Shore sky train L line. Busy, a segment would be going across the North Shore and Burnaby residents. Vancouver is the destination, but it’s not that strong for daily use, work or shop.
CN Track -> BC rail.
WCE 69 km pays $7 million dollars for track rights. This means BC rail is gonna go for market rate prices for track usage. Add cn rail would like their portion as well. Not free use in this lightest. The area has no obligation to operate service.
E&N
Technical engineering has begun. We have more reports and agreements to come. Until the paperwork is done, then we can talk about when construction may start.
Zwei replies: Really? 1/3 the population use SkyTrain weekly, sorry that is nothing more than twaddle. Only around 13% of the Metro region’s population use transit, not 33%.
As for BRT, well it is not real BRT at all but tarted up B-99 Express bus type of service or as Mr. cow says, BRT Lite.
The CN is abandoning large portions of the former BC Rail, thus the the costs would be based on that, according to my sources (I have had several meetings on that subject with the promoters).
SkyTrain will never happen on the North Shore as BC is all but broke and why the province is pushing BRT. Oh yes, I think you can kiss the gondola goodbye as well, there was absolutely no need for it as from my point of view it was a payoff to Burnaby for supporting the subway and the flip flop from LRT to SkyTrain in Surrey.
2026 will be a year of tax shock for the NDP and many pet projects will be axed trying to keep the basics, such as healthcare, funded.
As for Transit, I see reduced service and even the end of the U-Pass (depending if it is revenue neutral or not and from the info I have it is not!) There is even talk of mothballing the Langley Expo Line extension past Fraser highway, using the land earmarked for OMC #5 as a giant park and ride. Oops, let that cat out of the bag.
@Legoman, the Canadian Public Transit Fund has been folded into the new Building Communities Stronger Fund. That means the federal program that paid out $3.4 Billion per year for transit is now gone. The slightly larger BCSF pays out about $5.1 Billion per year for many infrastructure projects not just transit. That means Carney’s government infrastructure fund is 60% made up of the transit money. I guarantee you 60% of this money will never be going to transit projects, housing, schools, hospitals and other social infrastructure yes, transit no. I would be surprised if the new fund even gives 10% to transit.
Ontario is richer and can afford more transit funding than B.C. however, they must spend a whole lot more money.than B.C., whether they want to or not. B.C. is simply going back to the spending levels of the 1990’s, one big or two smaller transit infrastructure projects per decade. Translink still has no money to pay for the majority of its local portion of transit infrastructure projects. No federal money a whole lot less provincial money and little or no local money. Say goodbye to Skytrain capital funding.
One other thing you are telling me that the West Coast Express pays only $7 million per year for 69 km of service? Wow is that cheap! That’s 103,000 per km, that’s 1/5 – 1/6 of what GO Transit pays to CN for many of its track rights. Why don’t you guys negotiate for more, you are getting a great deal. If you want to get more or better track mileage you have to negotiate more with the railways.
The broadway subway will replace a couple bus routes and there might be a slight increase in ridership from all the new buildings being built along the line.
The elizabeth line in London was created by combining several older rail lines into one. It was called cross rail during construction. One of the lines was Heathrow connect that went from Paddington to the airport and was a stopping service. Another is the GWR line from Paddington to Reading. There was also the line from Liverpool street station to eastern areas. The only new bit was the tunnel from Paddington to Liverpool station that merged these lines into a new regional railway. It is similar to the RER lines in Paris or the Go trains in Toronto and the West coast express in Vancouver. It is not really a subway. They are commuter trains.
From Heathrow, you have a choice of three trains. Heathrow express at £25 in 15 minutes, Elizabeth line at £12 in 30 minutes, or Picadilly line at £5 in 1 hour.
The elizabeth line is great when it works. It only takes about 30 minutes to get to central London and cheaper than the express train and more stops in central London. The picadilly line is overcrowded and not good for people with luggage. The trains get very hot.
Back to Vancouver.
City of Vancouver built the Olympic line to demostrate its potential then gave up on it. BC offered money to keep it running but Vancouver said no. It is a shame. Olympic line could have been extended to Broadway and then to UBC. Also extending to Main station or Waterfront station. Vancouver paid for the land of the former CPR railway and does nothing with it.
Translink should have taken over the Olympic line and made it part of its transit work.
If you look at the Olympic village station on the Canada line, There is a big parking lot beside it. People going to Granville island could park here and ride the train to Granville Island. Parking is quite limited on the island.
When the current “SkyTrain” vehicles are no longer available is the underlying infrastructure able to be adapted to conventional rail? Are the rails the correct gauge, are the guideways the correct width, platform heights etc..
If it’s a complete teardown and rebuild I guess we’re screwed.
I will try to answer your question.
The Expo Line was designed for the ALRT (MK.1) cars and the track geometry and design was deliberately made so not to be able to operate conventional cars, without major rehab. The ART (MK 2/3/5 cars) have difficulty on the Expo line from New West to Waterfront. The issue is made moot because the Elevated guideway for the Expo Line had a lifespan of 50 years before major (read expensive) rehab. Minor rehabs have been made but i have been told that there are some very expensive repairs to be made, including some guideway section replacements.
The Millennium Line was designed for the Bombardier designed MK.2 cars and the track geometry will allow other cars to operate on it, keeping within the weight and length limitations. As the MK.5 cars could operate for another 30 to 40 years, the guideway would be well past its “best before date”.
The Canada Line is basically a heavy rail railway and the Hyundai/ROTEM EMU’s are actually railway stock and the line could operate any conforming vehicle offered by manufacturers.
Had two great conversations today with two so called mentally ill inidividuals, both originally from Vancouver. Both thought that building a line to Langley was truly insane and evidence that aliens are actually in charge of our society. My honest assessment was that I could not say it wasn’t insane. Spending billions so you could connect a community that, will according to Translink’s own figures, move fewer people on opening day, than the 99 Bus was 2019.
The second was that a line towards Metrotown, via the North Shore was way too expensive, too long, too out of the way and really useless compared to tiunnel under the Burrard Inlet between dontown Vancouver and the North Shore. I included the same planning study process had ruled outy that a tunnel under the Burrard Inlet was too expensive.
So who’s mentally ill?
Bumped into a former Translink planner, long retired, who lives out my way. Had a wee chat at the local coffee bean and he was full of surprises.
The chap still does contract work for TransLink and lot of what he said I could not publish but the grist of the conversation is that TransLink is broke, their planning is broken and the politcans overseeing the operation are completely out of their depth.
Bus drivers are not being trained properly (more will come out with that dreadful accident at Horseshoe Bay last year, which the government is desperately trying to bury), essential maintenance is being deferred and the the Broadway subway is proceeding very slowly to stretch the construction over several fiscal periods to hide the fact that cost have gone out of sight.
SkyTrain planning is being deferred until a decade after the Expo Line expansion is completed, if completed.
It seems the Serpentine Valley is proving far more problematic (read far more costly) than was first planned for. It was recommended to stop the line at Hwy 15 and Fraser Highway and create a major park and ride lot on the site for OMC#5, but the mayor’s council would have none of it, as well the Premier doesn’t want to renege on completing the line, especially with the government operating at almost a minority level.
Evidently Alstom has conveyed the message that after the current order is completed, procuring new cars will in the future will be expensive. But TransLink, the Mayors Council and the Province will have none of that as they are firm belief that they can order cars at any time from any maker.
The other big issue is a steadily declining ridership, combined with an ever more expensive transit service, which is growing worse every year. No one knows what to do to turn things around and planning returns to doing the same thing over again and hope for different results.
There a lot more but what is stated is the main course.