Buddy, Can You Spare $25 Billion…………
It has been brought to Zwei’s attention than another group is wanting to build more SkyTrain, this time calling itself Crosstown SkyTrain , a 38km light-metro line from Downtown Vancouver to Surrey.
Well, that sounds good doesn’t it, how about the cost?
A bare minimum cost for an elevated SkyTrain would be $19 billion, based on the cost of today’s cost of the Expo Line extension to UBC, including cars and other costs not included with the Langley extension program.
But it will not be elevated in Vancouver, oh no, the ‘creme de la creme’ will not have it.
So if 50% of the line is in a subway (in Vancouver of course), the cost would top $29 billion!
But of course there is more, the line would need Operations and Maintenance Centre number 6, costing around $1 billion and a new bridge crossing the Fraser River, $3 billion ( I am being extremely generous here) and the total cost for this line would top $33 billion.
The Rail for the Valley Marpole (Vancouver) to Chilliwack, Leewood Study proposal would cost under $2 billion and extending the line to Vancouver, via the Arbutus corridor would be around $300 million.
As BC is cash strapped at the moment and the $8 billion Broadway subway to UBC would be the next line to be built, then the North Shore transit has to be dealt with; I would say that the Crosstown SkyTrain Line to Surrey is nothing more than a pipe-dream.
Contrary to the hype and hoopla about SkyTrain, modern light rail is the only transit mode that can affordably deal with today’s traffic and transit woes, but we can’t have that, can we, as the politcans and bureaucrats who support SkyTrain would be extremely embarrassed at how modern light rail out performs SkyTrain at every level.
40 years of telling SkyTrain porkies would be embarrassing!
Gerald Fox’s 2008 shredding of the BC’s Auditor Generals Business Case for the Evergreen Line deserves a reread .
He leaves this little gem:
But, eventually, Vancouver will need to adopt lower-cost LRT in its lesser corridors, or else limit the extent of its rail system. And that seems to make some TransLink people very nervous.
Telling the truth about SkyTrain in Metro Vancouver is a revolutionary act!
Given that Eby explicitly promised to build Skytrain ‘from Langley to UBC’ on 12 OCT 2024 at an election campaign stop, I wonder if we are going to hear about the UBC extension on a snap-election campaign stop some time very soon??
Yes, it will mire BC in debt. But that’s just what governments do with fiat capital in the post-Breton Woods era.
As far as building another ‘Canada Line’ from Surrey to Vancouver?? I’d make this observation… The line appears to head down 41st avenue.
Of course, that like a proposal to create an intersection at Oakridge, now a ‘regional town center, fuelled by off-shore capital. Would not surprise me if that is a driver behind the proposal. Oakridge-Vancouver end is wagging this dog, not Surrey.
Marine Drive (Marpole) seems like a better alignment. Less disruption, more ROW. I also question the wisdom of using just ⅔ of the Arbutus ROW. Why not use it all?
Of course we all know the better route. Granville still has the loop in place to move trains from 4th Ave up on the Granville Street Bridge which can carry LRT. Tram would then provide service from UBC—Granville Island—Granville Mall—Hastings—SFU. Call it the Universities Line.
One significant outcome of using the Arbutus ROW to add a third line downtown is that is would give the Millennium Line a third line for east-west transfers. Today, with the Expo and Canada lines full at peak, the Millennium just can’t attract fares because there is no room for transfers on the downtown services.
As Zwei is known to say, “Everything West of Commercial must be in a tunnel according to the George Puil-Translink agreement.”
Thus, the proposal would be sending Skytrain (in a tunnel): under Denman; under the Arbutus ROW; and under 41st to Victoria or so; then on guideways to Surrey.
On top of the cost differential (ION Tram in Kitchener-Waterloo was built 9-times cheaper than Skytrain tunnels; and 5-times cheaper than guideways) there is the revitalization advantage provided by Tram, but not Skytrain.
I see Doug Mccallum who is running as Mayor again in Surrey is promising SkyTrain to Newton lol lol It is on the safe surrey coalition web page.
Zwei replies: Well Eby has promised SkyTrain to UBC as well, that’s $8 billion (an 7.5 km extension to 64th would be $3 billion+)! Problem is, there is zero funding. The Federal money pot is fast drying up and the province has little resources to fund the any new SkyTrain projects.
McCallum’s utterly stupidity, replacing light rail with SkyTrain has literally condemned Surrey to generational gridlock.
I think the people that created that website, aren’t experts on transit planning, and really haven’t even put much thought it what they are requesting. A zero thought onto what the technology is, and zero thought into cost.
I believe these people want more transit options. They live near one of the elbows in their map, this line represents their unique locations they travel to.
Also, their map on population density is a cool graphic, but a quick glance, it also looks wrong. 100% of Pitt Meadows looks uninhabited. It is true that there is a lot of farmland in Pitt Meadows, but Pitt Meadows also has a core of densely packed townhouses and 3 story condo buildings.
Zwei replies: Yes, they are not.
The problem is 40 years of Transit arrogance by senior governments, forcing light metro onto the taxpayer has created a fiscal reality, massive fiscal deficits.
One has to remember the trains used on the Expo and Millennium Lines are proprietary and unconventional AND extremely expensive. Any honest cost/benefit study of the system would show that using the proprietary trains could increase the cost up to TEN times more to install, than a light rail alternative.
The problem is just not the trains, but the cost of elevated and subway construction has ALwAYS made the system unsalable; only 7 system built in 50 years with only 6 remaining in operation and no sales in over 25 years should have sent a strong message to TransLink and the provincial government, it hasn’t. And that singular fact makes me ask the question; “WHY DO WE KEEP BUILDING WITH IT?”
I heartily approve of the eastern portion of the Crosstown line as it would add relief to the soon to be stretched EXPO line. It would also give some redundancy of service to people south of the Fraser if something happens on the Expo Line. Add the promised extension from King George Station to Newton and a link to Scott Road station and you have a functional transit “ring”.
Zwei replies: Never going to happen.
The next SkyTrain line to be built will be the Broadway subway and that will not be started until the late 2030’s if then. Then the North Shore must be dealt with; the E&N folks on the Island, the BC Rail folks and so one.
The other big problem is that one will have to pay for the design of new cars, etc as Alstom will no longer produce the cars for the proprietary system and they will be long out of production. One could get, now 30 year old cloned cars (40 years plus by the time the extension would be completed) from the CRRC, but that may open up another legal can of worms by doing so.
The key words for transit in the future is Userfriendly and non-userfriendly and flexibility. SkyTrain has none of the above.
An update. Evidently the Conservatives will build a $3.5 billion 8 km extension to Rootin Tootin Newton.
If this happens and with the Trump like McCallum as mayor of Surrey and the fear regional mayors have with him, All sane transit planning will cease in Metro Vancouver. Kiss good bye to the Broadway subway to UBC and improved North Shore transit.