Sparkle Ponies And Pixie Dust – Kennedy-Stewart’s Loopy Line

Screenshot 2022-09-27 at 09-58-24 Pronunciation of Loopy Definition of Loopy

At least some politicians get it, some politicians actually read this blog, obviously Vancouver’s current mayor Kennedy Stewart does not read this blog and more pity to him.!

In a re-election bid, Mayor Kennedy Stewart has promised to build a SkyTrain loop in central Vancouver.

Really?

What will be the cost of this SkyTrain subway loop Mr. Mayor?

Brief recap of SkyTrain light metro costs:

Millennium Line extension to Arbutus – Cost: Over $3 billion (without cars).

Expo Line Extension to Langley, Project 1 – Guideway cost: $4 billion. (cars not included)

Expo Line Extension to Langley, Project 2 – Operations & Maintenance Centre #5 cost: $500 mil. to $1 bil.

(The two projects must be completed before operation can start.)

Expo and Millennium Line Mid life Rehab: Over $3 billion ($1.47 billion re-signalling contract now let)

All of the above must be completed before trains can operate on any of the extensions

So let us look at proposed SkyTrain extensions.

Arbutus to UBC subway – Now estimated at $6 billion (not including cars)

North Shore Rapid Transit – Now estimated to cost in excess of $5 billion. (Realistically, it will be over $10 billion!)

Kennedy Stewart’s 19 km SkyTrain loop – cost unknown.

My estimate, based on the current per km cost of the Broadway subway at $526 billion/km – $10 billion!

I would think regional mayors would have something to say about this, but this is the silly season and politicians will tell all sorts of porkies to win elections. This one, by Kennedy Stewart is in the realm of sparkle ponies and pixie dust.

Postscript:

1) Alstom, which now owns the proprietary Movia Automatic Light metro (MALM) system (SkyTrain is the name of the regional light metro system and not the trains that operate on them) and as the system is deemed unsalable by Alstom due to large operational and maintenance costs and corporation has two “in house” light metro systems, has indicated that production will cease in 2025 after the last orders for MALM cars is complete. Only seven such systems have been sold since 1980, leaving Vancouver the sole customer for the proprietary railway.

With the American government refusing to subsidize any SkytTrain project in the US and two ongoing criminal cases in Korea and Malaysia, involving both Bombardier and SNC Lavalin over the sale of MALM, Alstom  is not actively marketing the system.

2) Werner Antweiler, a professor of Economics in UBC’s Sauder School of Business hasn’t a clue about public transit or rail transit and demonstrates this point with his comments. Really, why continue building with the classic “Edsel’ of transit systems, that cost a lot more to build, operate and maintain than its competitors., especially on transit routes lacking the ridership to sustain a subway.

Question: Why does anyone bother to listen to economists anymore? The profession has become an embarrassment, and the most respected economists have shown themselves to have as much predictive power as a deck of tarot cards. Stephen Moore
3) In 2018, the now discredited Mayor of Surrey’s flip-flop from LRT to SkyTrain, took a $1.63 billion light nail project and turned into a $4.5 billion to $5 billion light-metro project!

4) Construction is now proceeding with the 18 km Honontario LRT, which total cost, including cars, is $1.4 billion.

Screenshot 2022-09-26 at 12-32-50 Vancouver loop SkyTrain extension proposed by Kennedy Stewart CityNews Vancouver

‘Sparkle ponies and pixie dust’? Kennedy Stewart’s Vancouver Loop promise critiqued by opponents

 

 

Kennedy Stewart says if re-elected as mayor, he would accelerate plans for the “Vancouver Loop” – a new SkyTrain line that would connect Metrotown to UBC.

Stewart and his team announced he would make the business case for the project and ask that the line be prioritized. It’s already part of TransLink’s 2050 vision.

“With having 44,000 people a day moving along this corridor, it is really, really busy,” Stewart told reporters.

He added that with densification and population growth, the region will only get busier. The project is part of his Forward Together party’s attempt to alleviate pressure on busy transit corridors and address climate change.

The proposed Vancouver Loop would connect with the Broadway SkyTrain extension and link UBC to Metrotown along 41st and 49th Avenues.

Werner Antweiler, a professor of Economics in UBC’s Sauder School of Business, said the project is something that would be needed in the long-term.

“There is, of course, a significant demand from UBC students,” he explained in an interview with CTV News. “But there’s also going to be more development all along that line, especially in the Jericho Lands that will be developed by a group of Indigenous communities in in Vancouver – so we need to look at the future.”

Vancouver can’t go it alone. Although there’s no pricetag and no timeline, what we do know is the multi-billion dollar project will need help from the province and the federal government to be completed.

Stewart acknowledged that challenge.

“What I have to do, what I’ve done before is to go off and get funding and continuing to convince folks this is a worthwhile investment,” Stewart added.

Lisa Dominato, who is running for re-election as a city councillor with the ABC Party, said part of the issue is there’s currently no funding for a line to UBC. She told CTV News Stewart just re-announced priorities already set.

“Perhaps the mayor is trying to deflect from the fact that he’s supported roe pricing and transport pricing in the city,” Dominato said. “Perhaps that’s a deflection on his part.”

ABC and Forward Together have exchanged harsh words around the issue of road pricing with Stewart accusing his opponents of misrepresenting his views.

Opposition parties say the biggest concern they hear is affordability. Colleen Hardwick, a city Councillor who is now running for mayor with the TEAM slate, said she didn’t think the project was needed now, and maybe not even in the future.

“I think that we can achieve much more in terms of distributed surface rail than spending all of this money on SkyTrain, but I just don’t think it’s in the cards … as we are staring down a potential recession,” she told CTV News.

One challenge for Stewart is that other mayors have also made promises to deliver on projects from TransLink’s long-term plan.

“I wish the mayor luck in getting this project prioritized,” said Antweiler. “But the overall the TransLink plan actually is very sensible, because it also looks at rapid bus transit in many places where we wouldn’t be looking at a subway system.”

In 2018, Surrey’s Doug McCallum won the hotly contested mayoral race after promising to scrap light rail and instead replace it with SkyTrain.

“It’s silly season, isn’t it? And this is the kind of big announcement that’s quite common when you get into election season. But to me, it’s sparkle ponies and pixie dust,” said Hardwick.

Municipal elections take place across the province Oct. 15.

Comments

2 Responses to “Sparkle Ponies And Pixie Dust – Kennedy-Stewart’s Loopy Line”
  1. chris shelton says:

    where are the value for money studies for all these proposals?

    Where are the GHGs studies, that is to say how do you decrease our GHGs by 40% when we are increasing the GHGs 2,200% over the at grade alternative. This according to a peer article by three UoT Engineering professors.

  2. Haveacow says:

    I’m not sure what is more confusing about the idea. First, like most loops, it misses a lot of unserved and underserved territory and doesn’t seem to do much functionally other than provide another way to travel to UBC. Second, why would you potentially spend Billions on a rapid transit route that serves only part of a transit corridor, when the entire corridor only moves 44,000 passengers a day. When there are many other busier routes in many other Canadian cities that, will only ever be effectively served by buses .

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