What Is The Real Cost For The Expo & Millennium Line Extensions? A Repost From 2022.
The following post is from a September 14, 2022 and I am re-posting because Zwei was wrong about the cost of the 16 km Expo Line extension to Langley. Evidently, my cost estimates were out by $1.5 to $2.5 billion as the provincial government recently announced that the cost of the 16 km extension to will cost $6 billion ($6.5 billion to $7 billion if the Operations and Maintenance Centre #5 is built). Evidently the land for the OMC#5 was taken out of the Agriculture Land Reserve and sold to TransLink for $8 million!
So, for all those who think that SkyTrain is cheap to build, even cheaper than light rail (yes that is you former Surrey Mayor McCallum) to build, well best wait for the other shoe to drop, because the operating cost for this portion of line will be around $50 million annually. And you wonder why TransLink is in a financial crisis?
From two years ago …………………
It is the provincial election season, or more fondly called the “silly season” and all sorts of claims and promises are made.
Recently on a local radio talk show a politcal wannabe claimed that; “SkyTrain operates almost free because it does not have any drivers and is cheaper than LRT” and the host agreed with the person!
This sort of nonsense has been going on for decades, where people who should know better, make outlandish claims for the SkyTrain light metro system, without even a notion of understanding of the regional light rail system.
So, let us look at the costs of the current Expo and Millennium Line projects.
The Millennium Line extension to Arbutus
The Millennium Line extension to Arbutus can trace its ancestry back to the old Broadway-Lougheed rapid transit project where originally planned light rail would stop at the Arbutus Corridor where it would hook up to proposed light rail operating on the former Arbutus Corridor interurban route.
The NDP shelved this project, when the flip flopped from LRT to the proprietary Advanced Rapid Transit (ART), which, at the time, was the latest rebranding of the former proprietary Advanced Light Rail Transit (ALRT) system used on the Expo Line. The NDP further debased regional transit planning when they promised to pay two thirds of SkyTrain only construction West of Commercial Drive.
The flip-flop from Light Rail to Light Metro and with the province paying two thirds of the cost, gave Vancouver politicians the idea that having subways, makes a city world class, without even a hint of knowledge of the true cost of subways and their lack of ability in attracting ridership. But, they make good background for politcal photo-ops.
In April 2018, it was announced that the cost of the 5.7 km Broadway subway or Millennium Line extension to Arbutus will cost $2.83 billion.
Accounting for inflation and that cement costs have risen two to three times the rate of inflation, the cost of the subway will be more.
How much more?
Accounting just for inflation, the project now costs $3.19 billion and rising.
All the more embarrassing is that the subway will cater to peak traffic flows less than 4,000 pphpd, with the Broadway 99-B Line bus currently having a maximum capacity of 2,000 pphpd!
Expect the bad news that the cost of the subway will exceed its original estimates after the next civic elections.
The Expo Line Extension To Langley
This project has even more dubious history than the Broadway subway.
With the cost of SkyTrain light-metro ever increasing, TransLink set in motion of a plan to build LRT to connect central Surrey and Langley to the light-metro network.
The planning was fraught with issues, as TransLink designed the proposed LRT as a road rebuilding project with rails which drove up costs. Another problem, TransLink designed the proposed Surrey LRT as a “poor man’s” light metro and failed to understand that LRT was not light metro.
Evidently the bureaucrats at TransLink do not understand the differences between LRT and light-metro.
In the 2018 Civic Elections, former City of Surrey Mayor Dough McCallum ran on a ticket which included a switch from LRT to light-metro because he was an expert about transit, being around when the Millennium line was built, and that he could build the 16 km Expo line extension to Langley for $1.63 billion.
The public bought into this nonsense and McCallum was duly elected and the switch from LRT to Movia Automatic Light Metro was made.
Fast forward to 2022 and the cost to extend the SkyTrain light-metro system to Langley has become so expensive that the the project has been split into two contracts in an effort by the provincial government to hide the costs.
Contract 1: The guideway, which is now estimated to cost over $4 billion, of which 40% will be paid for by the federal government.
Contract 2: The operations and maintenance centre #5, which is now estimated to cost $500 million to $1 billion and must be completed before the line opens.
Thus the true cost of the 16 km Expo Line extension to Langley is $4.5 billion to $5 billion+!
The Partly Funded Mid Life Rehab
What is not included with the cost of the SkyTrain light metro extensions, is the estimated $3 billion mid life rehab of the Expo and Millennium Lines. As mentioned several times before, the Expo and Millennium Lines need a complete re-signalling; a renewed and enhanced electrical supply; and the replacement of switches (points), and a sundry of lesser items to be renewed or replaced before the extensions are opened.
From Toronto’s MetroLinx – the 50 year costs of rapid transit.
Die Rechnung – The Bill!
This has been updated to 2024 dollars.
What is the cost of extending SkyTrain Light Metro system 21.7 km?
5.7 km Broadway subway – $3 billion+
16 km Expo Line extension to Langley – $6 billion to $7 billion+
Mid life rehab – $3 to $3.5 billion+ ($1.47 billion already spent to install a new signalling system)
Thus the total cost for extending the Expo and Millennium lines a mere 21.7 km is $12 billion to $13.5 billion+ not including the new cars or major track adjustments needed for the Expo line to achieve a capacity of 17,500 pphpd!
The question remains, is $12 billion to $13.5 billion or more, good value for money for 21.7 km of new rapid transit line?
This is weird, no one was shocked in the comment section recently of an article about the cost increase of the Langley Skytrain extension to $6 Billion but no one was asking about if the project should continue as is, either. It’s just $6 Billion for a Skytrain line extension, that’s normal. This line extension has essentially doubled since early 2019. Not one commenter was questioning the price doubling in 5 and a half years. That’s 17% – 18% per year in cost increases. They still are only doing pre-construction set up work and the price of the project has effectively doubled. The stated price doesn’t include the yard (OMC#5) or the trains yet. Well I guess when you don’t ask questions about your Skytrain for years at a time this is what you get, good luck Vancouver.
You’re U.B.C. Millennium Line extension has increased as well. I predict $5.6 Billion to $6.8 Billion (and I’m usually right) depending on the number of stations and the total amount of tunnelling. A friend who works for an engineering firm I now predicted $7.2 Billion to $7.4 Billion, based on steal, structural concrete, the latest construction manpower costs plus the various types of pre construction insurances you’ll need, alone. This is only a 6.8 km to 7.5 km long line extension by the way. Or 4 to 4.8 miles in old fashion money. Yikes! “Skytrain so easy and inexpensive” I was told, “it could build itself”,wow!
Would you think that any of those who constantly try to tell RftV was full of prunes would ever admit that RftV was correct?
From the grapevine. There is a provincial election this October and it is going to be about taxes. The NDP and media are trying to force housing on top of the agenda, but it is all about taxes. Translink for the past two decades did not give a damn about taxes, with their 1,000 six figured salaried management always thought they could tax the people more and more.
I think the NDP are so involved forcing densification onto the region, that they are missing the big picture and that is taxes.
I have been told by a metro politician who has taken a keen interest in RftV (with our predictions being correct of late) relayed some info that the Broadway subway, as planned will be $8 to $9 billion and the scope is being reduced with elevated viaduct from Alma to UBC and single track operation from Blanca to UBC. What really shocked me is a plan to build the subway to UBC as a single track operation from Arbutus to UBC, with passing loops at stations (later to be made double track throughout).
A prediction: If BC Conservative John Rustad is elected, watch for the demise of TransLink and all future rapid transit planning during his tenure in office.
Skytrain upgrades and extensions currently delayed or on time:
BSP 2 to 3 years delay.
SLS 1 to 2 year delay.
OMC 4 On time opening of Sometime in 2025
OMC 5 Originally start operations in 2028. But Sidelined and pushed back 2030-2031?
MK5 Completely finished the original order of 205 trains by 2026. Because of Alstom Manufacturing has taken place in Kingston FACTORY instead of Thunder bay. Pushing the timeline to 2028-2029.
Platform extension is supposed to be completed next year.
OCC 2 Ready for next Spring.
Electric upgrades to be completed in 2026.
Manufacturer delay for new flyers And Nova buses.
MTC(Marpole transit center)
On track for a completion in 2026.
Rail replacement.
original section waterfront to new West has been replaced.
Currently, work is on section from New West to King George station of Cost $35 million.
STEP(Skytrain expansion program)
Cost $1.47 billion
Includes OCC 2, OMC 4, MK 5, Platform extensions and electrical upgrades.
Operations Control center (OCC) 2
Locate the next to OMC 2.
New control room with an additional capacity for the future.
OMC 4
In between Lougheed and Braid station
Maintaining MK 5 and Storage MK 1 and 2.
New or upgraded transformers and platform extensions for MK 5.
SLS (Surrey to Langley Extension)
Cost $6 Billion
Mr haveacow. Construction cost and labor costs have gone up. Every project in North America today has gone up more than inflation.
1/3 EXPO line Operational capacity pm or am peak 5,000 or 7,500 pphpd. Expo line to 1/4 or 1/2 Not peak time low 2,500 pphpd.
BSP (Broadway Subway Project)
Cost $2.83 Billion
P3 Construction Contracts.
The major delay is on station construction. Rails and electrical equipment will be on time.
Capacity pm or am peak 5,000 or 10,000 pphpd.
BSP and SLS project is under Transport Infrastructure Corporation a crown corporation or TI Corp to monitor and manage pay package.
UBCX 5 or 6 Station is:
McDonald
Alma st
Jericho
Sasamat Infield station*
UBC bus loop
East mall
2023 Last Cost estimate $3.4 Billion
Around 8 kilometers of additional trackage including additional storage track of 5 train.
UBC is going to pitch in $?
Business case is supposed to be 2025 by the earliest or it’s the 2026.
Zwei replies: You are laughable. There is absolutely no honest business case for a subway to UBC, in fact there is no honest business case for any SkyTrain extension. This is going to hit home hard if Rustad or Pollierve form governments.
TransLink is broke and regional transportation is in chaos and building SkyTrain will be seen as D.O.A.
I don’t think the UBC extension will ever get cut, it has far too much political support, Conservative government or not HOWEVER, I still believe that the powers that be, will kill every other line extension to find money to pay for the UBC extension.
Zwei replies: The UBC extension does not have taxpayer support and as it stands today, there will be no thought of a UBC extension until the mid 2030’s and by that time, no one will be producing the cars to operate on it. This means they must be custom bu8ilt, adding to the cost. As it stands, any SkyTrain extension is “dead in the water”.
Because the Broadway subway is at least 10 years away, the costs will increase but you forget the other real problem and that is our transportation infrastructure is critically over stressed and SkyTrain has contributed to this because it is so poor in attracting the motorist from the car.
What the government is not telling the public is that there is now planning for a new North south highway and a new East West highway to cater to new BRT routes. Rubber on asphalt is the NDP’s solution.
Legoman OMC #5 is needed because the new OMC #4 doesn’t have enough maintenance capacity to maintain all your new 5 section Mk. 5 trainsets (storage capacity isn’t important here in this case). OMC #4 will force your train fleet to have to travel 20+ minutes out of the way to start service each day in Langley (if the Langley extension gets built at all). That means upon opening OMC #4 will have to bump up its entire maintenance schedule to cover the shortage in maintenance and service space plus an extra 20 to 25 minutes each day to cover the trip to Langley to start service for the day. It maybe a good thing that some of those Mk. 5 Trainsets are late.
The transit service operating budget is going to have to be cut by 50% and the funding formula for Translink changed soon to begin to address this massive shortfall each future budget year. You want to add to Translink’s operating budget woes by building a line extension to an exhurb (Langley) that will attract considerably fewer passengers than the current 99 bus route.
To pay for many of those projects you listed you need the current operating budget to be maintained unless action is taken soon many of those projects are as good as gone. Unless a new Translink funding formula is figured out and approved very soon (within the next 4 or 5 months) by various municipal government bodies and the provincial government. This is a bad time to find out that the Langley Skytrain extension just shot up by 50%.
While at the same time your provincial government has hid the cost increases with the currently under construction Broadway extension and the increases in cost of the planned UBC extension. I guarantee that the cost of the Broadway extension is no longer $2.83 Billion (25 to 30 years of experience in projects like this talking here).
Just a note, I have been told by a source close to the CoV, that the cost of the Broadway subway is now past $3.5 billion due to ground stability issues and more. There is a lot more but I cannot say at this point in time.
To quote the source; “all will be revealed after the October election.”
When we worked on what is now known as the Canada Line, we did not like the government’s demand for a subway as we found the subsoil very poor for subway construction and recommended surface tram.
Your Premier of the day and a first minister, who I believe is running for premier, would have none of that as it had to be a subway and it had to be SkyTrain. I can say their surprise was complete when we said we did not make SkyTrain, as only one company did and that was Bombardier.
Our tram route went as far as Steveston, the airport, and the Olympic Hockey rink, but SNC Lavalin eventually won the contract as your powers that be would have nothing to do with trams.
What, I think was a lost opportunity is that we could have built our LRT plan for half the cost of SNC Laviln’s contract.
Now with news that TransLink has budgetary issues, our tram plans seem to be much superior to what was eventually built.
Oh heck, the post Covid inflation plus the huge amount of structural concrete (low carbon concrete too) needed for tunnel building alone will bump up the cost between $3.42 Billion – $3.65 Billion. I thought they signed a fixed price contract for this project, turns out it wasn’t, ouch!
John Rustad is full opinion on Translink: https://www.conservativebc.ca/john_rustad_no_more_billion_dollar_bailouts_time_to_get_translink_back_on_track
or
A Conservative Solution: Getting TransLink Back on Track
John Rustad and the Conservative Party of British Columbia propose a clear plan to rescue TransLink and ensure a reliable, affordable, and sustainable public transit system:
1 TransLink Accountability Audit: Immediately open the books and conduct a comprehensive audit to provide transparency on how taxpayer dollars are being spent.
2 Address Overcrowded Routes: Review and address overcrowded bus routes, starting with Surrey, home to the five most overcrowded routes in the system.
3 Stop-Gap Funding and Long-Term Plan: Provide two years of stop-gap funding to develop a “Back-on-Track Plan,” a sustainable funding model addressing financial mismanagement, overcrowding, and capacity issues.
4 Accelerate Key Projects: Expedite the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain project, ensuring timely delivery.
5 Fair Share of Federal Funding: Work with the federal government to secure BC’s fair share of federal transit funding.
My take on this
1. Translink Financial audit is wasting time and marginal return.
2. A- More money to increase service hours. B- Buy more buses and upgrade depot’s.
3. 2 years to restructure Translink is adjustments to SBCTA Act or providing more funding.
4.is a campaign promise.
5. Province want to say in annual permanent transit fund and equal pay out with Toronto.
Translink’s Efficiency review :https://www.translink.ca/-/media/translink/documents/about-translink/corporate-reports/managements-action-plan-on-the-efficiency-review-results.pdf
From the report with for inflation $670 Million Annually or $5.3 Billion 2026-2033.
Corporate translink.
Operationno BCRTC and CMBC
The approach was to review the operating cost budgets, the reliability of the processes generating the budgets, the efficiency of service planning based on ridership forecasts, and to identify opportunities to improve operational efficiency and effectiveness. The review included a full spans and layers assessment of four shared services; Finance, BTS, HR, and Transportation Planning.5 EY engaged CPCS Transcom Ltd, 6 to lead the review of the efficiency of service planning.
In truth, the review points to service debt and reducing contract work. Along with more automated procedures of corporate site. Up $90 Million Annual cost savings. Or $580 Million annual deficit.
Add Fare enforcement Calculated annual loss $40 Million. Planning to recoup $5-10 Million.
Projected shortfall annually $570 Million until 2033.
Mr haveacow
OMC 1 Have 7 Maintenance tracks
OMC 2 have 2 Overhaul work tracks.
OMC 3 have 1 Light maintenance track of MK 2.
OMC 4 have 3 Maintenance tracks of MK 5.
We know storage 5 train on UBCX and temporarily 2-3 train on terminus SLS.
Zwei replies: The problem with TransLink and it is certainly valid today is that they do not understand the difference between light rail and light-metro. Thus they plan light-metro as light-rail and then surprised at the huge costs and then goes whining to the taxpayer for more money.
Zwei has been “up Translink’s nose” and in an exchange on another a Group site. His contention was the old saw that LRT is slow because of street crossings, which I reminded him that that wasn’t the case at all and that light rail is merely a tram operating on a reserved or dedicated R-o-W, with priority signally at intersections. LRT’s apparent slowness was due to light-rail having more stations or stops than SkyTrain and more stations or stops means more transit customers.
The conversation went south because he was transfixed on the notion that light-rail operates on-street in mixed traffic, but that of course is a streetcar and a streetcar operating on a reserved R-o-W, has operating parameters equal to or superior to light-metro!
So the issue with TransLink is simple, they haven’t a clue what they are doing with transit planning because they do not understand the basics and that is costing the taxpayer billions of dollars more than it should.
My read on the entire 21.7 km SkyTrain expansion (now estimated to be well over $13 billion) is that TransLink and Eby are very, very scared at the moment, refusing to be honest with the public, refusing to admit to past mistakes.
During a visit, well more than a few years ago, the maintenance chief said at the time that, a 5 section Skytrain would require 1.5 to 1.75 times the maintenance time and of course, much more maintenance track space. To replace the Mark 1 cars with much larger 5 section Skytrains, he said would require all existing maintenance tracks upgraded in space and equipment, no fewer than 10 new maintenance spaces or the equivalent of 18 to 20 Mk. 5 sized maintenance tracks and no less than a 40% increase in the amount of staff.
The big problem no one is telling you, the new Mk 5 cars require almost twice the maintenance in terms of equipment and time that, Translink planned for and was told by Bombardier they would need. Existing staff are having big issues due to the large amount of new “updated” systems on the Mk. 5 cars. These systems have been equipped by new and unknown suppliers. Retraining is taking far longer and is costing 60% more than expected. Now that Bombardier North America is being run by its new masters, Alstom, it appears they (Alstom) essentially have little concern for the ex Bombraider product. They aren’t interested in solving this issue with the Mk. 5’s training issues and equipment problems. Translink was told by Alstom, “this is what you ordered, we are providing the vehicles and the various training packages (maintenance & operations), the rest is up to you”.
This is why OMC #5 was so critical. It was to have all Mk 5 capable maintenance track and equipment from the first day it opened. The earlier maintenance centres, other than OMC #4, aren’t able to handle the Mk. 5’s yet. They lack many key pieces of equipment, space is limited (because they were designed to handle smaller vehicles) and training is taking much much longer than planned. The equipment issues on the Mk. 5 trains haven’t been solved yet. They are also not likely to be solved quickly because of disinterest at Alstom’s board.