What Is The Real Cost For The Expo & Millennium Line Extensions?
It is the civic election season, or more fondly called the “silly season” and all sorts of claims and promises are made.
Recently on a local radio talk show a politcal wannabe claimed that; “SkyTrain operates almost free because it does not have any drivers and is cheaper than LRT” and the host agreed with the person!
This sort of nonsense has been going on for decades, where people who should know better, make outlandish claims for the SkyTrain light metro system, without even a notion of understanding of the regional light rail system.
So, let us look at the costs of the current Expo and Millennium Line projects.
The Millennium Line extension to Arbutus
The Millennium Line extension to Arbutus can trace its ancestry back to the old Broadway-Lougheed rapid transit project where originally planned light rail would stop at the Arbutus Corridor where it would hook up to proposed light rail operating on the former Arbutus Corridor interurban route.
The NDP shelved this project, when the flip flopped from LRT to the proprietary Advanced Rapid Transit (ART), which, at the time, was the latest rebranding of the former proprietary Advanced Light Rail Transit (ALRT) system used on the Expo Line. The NDP further debased regional transit planning when they promised to pay two thirds of SkyTrain only construction West of Commercial Drive.
The flip-flop from Light Rail to Light Metro and with the province paying two thirds of the cost, gave Vancouver politicians the idea that having subways, makes a city world class, without even a hint of knowledge of the true cost of subways and their lack of ability in attracting ridership. But, they make good background for politcal photo-ops.
In April 2018, it was announced that the cost of the 5.7 km Broadway subway or Millennium Line extension to Arbutus will cost $2.83 billion.
Accounting for inflation and that cement costs have risen two to three times the rate of inflation, the cost of the subway will be more.
How much more?
Accounting just for inflation, the project now costs $3.19 billion and rising.
All the more embarrassing is that the subway will cater to peak traffic flows less than 4,000 pphpd, with the Broadway 99-B Line bus currently having a maximum capacity of 2,000 pphpd!
Expect the bad news that the cost of the subway will exceed its original estimates after the next civic elections.
The Expo Line Extension To Langley
This project has even more dubious history than the Broadway subway.
With the cost of SkyTrain light-metro ever increasing, TransLink set in motion of a plan to build LRT to connect central Surrey and Langley to the light-metro network.
The planning was fraught with issues, as TransLink designed the proposed LRT as a road rebuilding project with rails which drove up costs. Another problem, TransLink designed the proposed Surrey LRT as a “poor man’s” light metro and failed to understand that LRT was not light metro.
Evidently the bureaucrats at TransLink do not understand the differences between LRT and light-metro.
In the 2018 Civic Elections, former City of Surrey Mayor Dough McCallum ran on a ticket which included a switch from LRT to light-metro because he was an expert about transit, being around when the Millennium line was built, and that he could build the 16 km Expo line extension to Langley for $1.63 billion.
The public bought into this nonsense and McCallum was duly elected and the switch from LRT to Movia Automatic Light Metro was made.
Fast forward to 2022 and the cost to extend the SkyTrain light-metro system to Langley has become so expensive that the the project has been split into two contracts in an effort by the provincial government to hide the costs.
Contract 1: The guideway, which is now estimated to cost over $4 billion, of which 40% will be paid for by the federal government.
Contract 2: The operations and maintenance centre #5, which is now estimated to cost $500 million to $1 billion and must be completed before the line opens.
Thus the true cost of the 16 km Expo Line extension to Langley is $4.5 billion to $5 billion+!
The Partly Funded Mid Life Rehab
What is not included with the cost of the SkyTrain light metro extensions, is the estimated $3 billion mid life rehab of the Expo and Millennium Lines. As mentioned several times before, the Expo and Millennium Lines need a complete re-signalling; a renewed and enhanced electrical supply; and the replacement of switches (points), and a sundry of lesser items to be renewed or replaced before the extensions are opened.
From Toronto’s MetroLinx – the 50 year costs of rapid transit.
Die Rechnung – The Bill!
What is the cost of extending SkyTrain Light Metro system 21.7 km?
5.7 km Broadway subway – $3 billion+
16 km Expo Line extension to Langley – $4.5 billion to $5 billion+
Mid life rehab – $3 billion+ ($1.47 billion already spent to install a new signalling system)
Thus the total cost for extending the Expo and Millennium lines a mere 21.7 km is $10.5 billion to $11 billion+!
The question remains, is $10.5 billion to $11 billion+ good value for money for 21.7 km of rapid transit?
