More from the South Fraser Community Rail Society.
The Zwickau Vogtlandbahn TramTrain
South Fraser Community Rail Society
“Hydrogen iLink PassengerRail, Scott Rd. SkyTrain to Chilliwack” #connect the valley
TransLink’s wrong-headed Fraser Highway to Langley SkyTrain debacle
is starting to be seen for what it is…. WRONG!
Know the FACTS…. This cannot be allowed to continue!
TransLink and the Mayor’s Councils handling of this issue was a sham from the start despite the advent of COVID-19. This Newsletter should remind all decision makers and the public as to why we are in the position we are in, wasting an immeasurable amount of your tax dollars and time with nothing to show for it. All of this to satisfy the wishes of a NEW Mayor who won with 13% of the popular vote! If common sense prevailed, your well-planned LRT line would be well under construction as of today! Consider the following timeline of events that got us to where we are at today –
FACT Through a comprehensive community involved plan over about ten years Surrey secured approval and funding (Federal, Provincial and Regional) for LRT – Guildford down 104th to Surrey Center down King George Blvd to Newton. Proposed in 2012 construction start – 2019.
FACT The original 10.5 KM LRT line was supported as a mode for internal transit for Surrey, designed to build communities within Surrey with an approved senior and regional government funding envelope of $1.65 Billion. This LRT line was Phase 1 of the ten-year plan.
FACT $50 million dollars of regional tax dollars were spent in engineering funding for this LRT project through TransLink!
FACT The 2018 Municipal election campaign was won by the Safe Surrey Coalition, new Mayor Doug McCallum. Two major promises 1) Establish new Surrey Municipal Police Force promising same cost as the RCMP 2) Change the approved and funded LRT project to a Surrey Center to Langley City SkyTrain at same cost of $1.65 Billion and not a penny more.
FACT First TransLink Meeting after election with majority of NEWLY elected Mayors, Surrey Mayor Doug McCallum and Mayor Kennedy Stewart of Vancouver supported each other in a pre-arrangedweighted vote, blindsiding the Mayors around the table, most unaware of what was happening. Vote passed for Vancouver Subway to Arbutus and support for the suspension of the Surrey to Langley LRT, moving forward to develop a draft SkyTrain business plan.
FACT IMPORTANT – The Mayors Council at the urging of TransLink Senior Staff and Mayor McCallum changed support from LRT to SkyTrain based on Mayor McCallum’s well publicized (during the election campaign and to the Mayors Council) assurance that they could do it for the same $1.65 Billion and not one penny more. The Reality, cost will be $3.5 – $4 Billion. Due to this fact the project should NEVER have been approved nor should it go ahead. The promise was not kept! Mayor McCallum’s mis-represented project can only proceed at OUR expense!
FACT IMPORTANT – Mayors Council changed support from LRT to SkyTrain based on Mayor McCallum’s assurance Surrey would repay TransLink the $50 million spent on LRT preliminary engineering and then goes outside the meeting as says he is not going to pay. It has now been agreed that Surrey will provide $30 Million in property plus $9 million in cash?
FACT The change from LRT to SkyTrain initially was justified in that the Surrey to Langley City SkyTrain was Phase 2 of TransLink’s 10-year plan, so in their pronouncements this was just a matter of switching phases. Unfortunately, there were four problems with that position.
FACT First – There was a significant cost difference between the LRT (planned in the financials) and a SkyTrain project (not planned in the financials). The difference? LRT $157,142,857. / km vs SkyTrain $225,000,000. / km. TransLink knew this info from the outset, so why make change?
FACT Second– TransLink’s decision to go with SkyTrain for Phase 2 was decided through a non-public, flawed internal study that looked at one corridor option only. The valuable Interurban corridor was never considered despite its identified value and connection to a far greater population, inter-regional connectivity that was identified and protected by a Provincial Government for passenger use at no cost for its use at a fraction of the cost!
FACT Third – TransLink’s plan for SkyTrain did not consider its negative impact on Green Timbers Urban Forest, plus cost of going through 7 kms with no population (Green Timbers Forest and the Serpentine Flats). Further, they did not consider the high construction cost to build through the Serpentine Flood Plain soil conditions.
FACT Fourth– Surrey (Fleetwood & Clayton), Langley City and the Township of Langley have not appropriately planned for, nor have they adequately informed their residents on what density will be required to justify the high cost of SkyTrain down Fraser Highway to Langley City should it happen. To give residents an idea we offer the following visual taken off of Port Moody’s plan surrounding their Evergreen Line. COVID-19 has changed the game entirely, cost and density.
2,800 homes are being proposed next to Port Moody’s SkyTrain’s Inlet Centre Station. A massive redevelopment could completely transform an existing 13-acre, low-density neighborhood immediately adjacent to SkyTrain’s Inlet Centre Station. According to a city staff report, the developer’s intention for Coronation Park, the tentative name of the project, is to build six towers between 32 and 36 stories, each with a six-story podium and five six-story buildings. If you want to see the reality, check out what has happened to the Brentwood area development in Burnaby, do you want this for your community.
Summary: It is long past time that the TransLink Board of Directors Rethink and review their decisions and planning related to both SkyTrain, LRT and the Interurban South of the Fraser. The decisions to proceed with SkyTrain are wrong on ALL and every count, they are totally disingenuous. Yes, COVID-19 has seriously caused reconsideration, however, are our decision makers going to lead or are they going be led by TransLink staff or because of some internal biases by a few TransLink Board members (more on this at a later date).
It is time for some real leadership by the TransLink Board and the TransLink Mayors Council and an intervention by the Provincial Government if necessary. A review of the staff reports on the Fraser Highway SkyTrain project to the Mayors Council from Geoff Cross Vice-President and comments attributed to Kevin Desmond CEO put a good deal into question. (quotes from local published media) Despite our four points listed above CEO Kevin Desmond comments “Whether ridership levels will recover is a million dollar question” and yet Geoff Cross states “TransLink still believes the project makes business sense and hopes to put forward an investment plan in the fall.” REALLY, in who’s imagination? To CEO Desmond, this is not a million-dollar question, THIS IS A MULTI BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION! Obviously, there are conflicting statements being made by senior TransLink executives!
“There’s an active discussion right now around North America asking – Is this the death knell of public transit” said Councillor Craig Cameron of West Vancouver. “I don’t think it is, but…. Do we believe the new normal that we get to, is going to be significantly lower than Pre-COVID peak? Are we going to have to do transit differently? “… “it would take some time to evaluate the level of ridership that is realistic in the months ahead” said Desmond. In a number of comments TransLink staff are continuing to base their future on a boost in senior government funding which is not even close to be being realistic, especially in view of our NEW normal. Continuation of this debacle will cost all of us responsible transit improvements!
This debacle is the result of TransLink capitulating to the wishes of the Mayor of Surrey who was demanding his election promises be kept – Well they weren’t kept, they were irresponsible and yet our TransLink Mayors Council and Board supported him! Why?
SkyTrain in place of LRT at the same cost – $1.65 Billion and not one penny more! FACT Cost $3.5 – $4 Billion. Promise not kept, should be denied.
Surrey Municipal Police Force in place of RCMP at the same cost! Promise not kept, should be denied.
Rethink – It is not too late to go with the original LRT project and Surrey would not have to pay back the $50 million already spent by TransLink!
Throughout all of this discussion, our transit provider TransLink is still not facing the reality of the fact they are promoting an outdated, highly overpriced, unaffordable, and poorly performing technology at great cost to us taxpayers. We urge the Provincial Government to implement the “South of Fraser Transportation and Housing Study” already promised through this year’s Throne Speech and Budget Announcement before any decisions are made on South Fraser Regional Transit or Inter-Regional Transit.
The escalating cost to build with light metro, due to Covid 19, means there is little money in the pot to further extend the light-metro to Langley.
TransLink is said to be in a state of shock as former customers are leaving transit in droves and not coming back. Over 80% of the Expo and Millennium Lines ridership first take a bus and with the light metro system purposely designed as a “spine” taking all suburban transit traffic into Vancouver by train, the collapse of bus customers means the mini-metro is operating with extremely light loads.
As the light metro system costs about the same to operate with either light or heavy loads, the lack of revenue is severely testing TransLink’s bottom line.
If no additional federal or provincial money is forthcoming, TransLink will be in severe financial distress by summer and hitting up the taxpayer for more money may mean political suicide for the current mayor’s sitting on the Mayor’s Council for Transit.
The Broadway subway is more and more becoming a political and a financial liability and a cut and cover solution to stem the escalation of construction costs, a la the Canada Line, will mean the end of political life for those who support cur and cover subway construction.
The current rumour has it that the subway will be built and what money is left over from the $4.6 billion pot will extend the Expo line East until the money gives out. Present planning shows about 3km of at grade construction, which defies the ‘raisin d’etre’ of a light metro, will create “Berlin Wall” effect on the Fraser Hwy., complete with 3 metre, barbwire topped fencing.
The Berlin Wall effect of at-grade ATC operation, complete with 3 metre, barbwire topped fencing.
The Expo and Millennium lines desperately need a $2 to $3 billion rehab, which again, pushes the financial crisis even further.
It seems the Expo Line extension to Langley has been derailed and one could say, the SkyTrain to Langley has served its purpose for the Mayor of Surrey, with Langley Mayors left at a station, waiting for a train that will never come.
Surrey Langley SkyTrain project stalls due to COVID-19 pandemic
The 16-kilometre rapid transit line from King George SkyTrain Station to Langley City Centre is estimated to cost $3.1 billion. TRANSLINK
Just like almost everything, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected planning for Surrey Langley SkyTrain project.
A report to the Mayors’ Council on Regional Transportation notes that there are “several outstanding issues that must be addressed for the SLS project to advance”.
The report was prepared by Geoff Cross, vice president TransLink for transportation planning and policy, and is included in the council’s agenda Thursday (May 28).
The council directed TransLink to refer the business case to senior governments for approval, which the transportation agency did, according to Cross.
The project would extend the Expo Line 16 kilometres on an elevated guideway from King George Station to Langley City Centre along Fraser Highway.
According to TransLink, the rapid transit line includes eight stations, three bus exchanges, park and ride spaces, 55 SkyTrain vehicles, an operations and maintenance centre, and supporting system upgrades.
There is approximately $1.63 billion in available funding, enough only to extend the line to Fleetwood.
The extension from King George Station to Fleetwood is seven kilometres, and involves four stations.
In his report, Cross noted that before the pandemic, the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain project was the “primary impetus” for an update to the regional transporation’s investment plan.
The updated plan was “targeted for approval in July 2020”.
“However, following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 it was decided that delivering a Phase Two Investment Plan update in July was no longer feasible due to uncertainties in projecting future revenues,” according to Cross.
Cross noted that the business case for the project is already with senior levels of government, and “scope could readily scale with additional funding”.
“However, it is fiscally prudent to wait until the nature and magnitude of emergency relief and stimulus programs is more certain,” Cross wrote.
According to the City of Surrey, construction for the Surrey Langley SkyTrain was set to begin in early 2022.
It is beginning to sink in, that post Covid-19, many things will change.
The other valley passenger rail, group, the South Fraser Community Rail Society, also sees that the post Covid-19 and post Bombardier world will change the transit landscape dramatically. Light metro is just too expensive for what good it will do; why no one builds with it anymore.
Transit ridership is plummeting and will continue to plummet with universities and colleges turning to off-site education and those working at home, will continue to work at home.
This will put TransLink’s big revenue generator, the U-Pass in jeopardy.
TransLink has badly fumbled the ball with Covid-19 and now must come to terms with the new normal and that new normal is that commuters have abandoned transit and running empty buses on many routes which have become ghost routes, is unsustainable.
What can TransLink do to attract ridership?
TransLink must abandon extending the aging and now obsolete SkyTrain light-metro system. $4.6 billion to extend the light-metro 12.8 km does seem extremely expensive for what it will do.
TransLink must redesign its bus routes to provide seamless (no transfer) journeys to Vancouver and stop using buses to feed the light metro system for people wanting to go to Vancouver. For many, this is transit heresy, but in reality it is what the customer wants and post covid-19, the customer will dictate the fate of TransLink.
The politicians, especially regional mayors should brush up on their history lessons because the Broadway subway will fast become a Fast Ferry fiasco, squandering $3 billion on what will become a damp squib.
Regional rail services, providing a more relaxed, comfortable and spacious journey, will be in demand and that is what “Rail for the Valley” is about, providing affordable and user-friendly transit to a region that has little or no transit operating.
The new reality is now upon us, sadly most politicians are still in tax and spend mode and great effort must be made to send the message that affordable and user-friendly transit options are far more desirable than expensive, election driven rapid transit schemes, so designed to reward political friends and insiders.
Alstom purchase of Bombardier Rail Division and COVID-19 impact on Transit?
South Fraser Community Rail Society
“Hydrogen iLink PassengerRail, Scott Rd. SkyTrain to Chilliwack” #connect the valley
How the Alstom Group purchase of Bombardier Rail Division and the advent of the COVID-19 virus should scuttle TransLink’s SkyTrain expansion plan and the torpedoing of your wallet!
Bi-monthly Newsletter:
The recently announced purchase of Bombardier by the Alstom Group plusCOVID-19 IS A GAME CHANGER for TransLink’s SkyTrain plans that are yet to receive senior government final approval for the Fraser Highway proposal to Fleetwood, let alone Langley City. We urge the Federal and B.C. Provincial Government, TransLink Mayor’s Council and the TransLink Board of Directors to hit PAUSE on any plans to proceed until ALL facts on the Alstom purchase are known and our future transit needs under a NEW normal are understood!
RE Alstom Purchase of Bombardier –
FACT: SkyTrain is Bombardier’s sole surviving system for new system purchases!
FACT: Alstom will be dropping all marginal product lines once the sale has been
approved by the regulatory bodies due to cost of supporting same and
competitive pressures for critical lines of business!
FACT: TransLink must make technology decisions which will determine how
much cash will be pumped from your wallet due to EXPO/Millennium line
rebuilds and the proposed King George-Fleetwood let alone Langley expansion!
FACT: It is imperative the provincial government and TransLink hit the “PAUSE”
button on the proposed Fraser Highway extension until the sale has completed mid-2021 and the consequences of going forward are known and the alternative option is carefully considered!
RE COVID-19 Impact –
Fact: SkyTrain Expo and Millennium Lines are running at 18% of normal, Canada Line is running at 14% of normal, SeaBus is running at 10%, West Coast Express is running at 6% while buses are running at roughly 15% of normal.
Fact: 60% of TransLink revenues that depend on farebox, gas tax and parking revenue have collapsed with NO assurance on their rebounding within any reasonable timeframe.
Fact: Significant additional spending by senior governments was and is essential, on balance they have both done a good job. With a projected Federal Deficit for 2021 of well over $250 Billion and growing plus an additional high cost to the provinces finances, a cautious use of tax dollars is required.
So, to more detail re Alstom purchase of Bombardier and its impact:
France’s Alstom Group has reached an agreement to purchase the Bombardier Transportation Rail Division for about USD$8.2 Billion. Alstom has agreed to maintain the HQ for North American Rail operations in Montreal for at least the next 5 years as the Caisse de dépôt will be the largest external shareholder in this new entity. How will the advent of COVID-19 affect the proposed sale/purchase? Will it be renegotiated, will it go ahead, what is the affect of Bombardier? Huge implications either way.
This agreement is subject to the EU competition regulator’s approval and this is not expected until mid 2021. Until approval has been rendered by the competition regulators, it will be business “as usual” with both parties slugging it out in the marketplace for any, and all new business contracts. It is estimated Bombardier Transportation currently has about C$35Billion in orders on the books which will migrate to the new entity on completion. How will the advent of COVID-19 affect the proposed sale/purchase?
This sale presents ominous clouds to users such as TransLink, of the Bombardier SkyTrain product line.
Once the deal has been blessed by the regulators and formal sale taken place-Alstom Group will have to take a sober look at the various Bombardier technologies they have acquired in terms of their future viability in the marketplace. A major future slugfest is expected as Alstom, Siemens and other rolling stock suppliers sharpen their teeth on dealing with the 800-pound gorilla in the room – the state owned Chinese CRRC with annual revenues of more than $100Billion.
Products such as the LIM powered SkyTrain product could be first on the chopping block. How long will Alstom commit to supporting this sole-source product line with ONE customer for spare parts and new manufacture, especially now with all the focus being on Hydrail (Hydrogen powered transit). Many countries have now mandated the use of Hydrogen to eliminate the use of diesel. Alstom happens to be the acknowledged leader in Hydrail.
In-light of recent events, TransLink will have to very-seriously-reconsider as to whether SkyTrain technology on Fraser Highway is the correct solution for deployment.
If TransLink insists on proceeding using the SkyTrain product, they are still stuck with a sole source supplier, Alstom Group, which will have doubled in size overnight and has even less interest and motivation to be a supplier of this product. Pricing this product line properly to reflect the true cost of maintaining it as a commercially viable product will make it even more expensive than the past.
It may be time that TransLink is forced to make the bold transition to technologies and product lines which can be sourced from multiple vendors. Yes- it will be painful but the sooner they start, they are in a position to entrench/guarantee their supply position for spares/upgrades for old technologies (SkyTrain) as they place orders for new technology (iLint hydrail) as partial compensation for Alstom maintaining the SkyTrain supply chain.
The alternative might be a letter from Alstom Group advising of the total discontinuation of the SkyTrain product line with TransLink having either the option of a final “last buy” of rolling stock/spares or the shotgun “offer” to purchase the rights, licenses and tooling to manufacture the Skytrain product line.
Metro Vancouver and our taxpayers cannot afford the cost and risk of TransLink being in the rolling stock fabrication business?
So, to the economic impact of COVID-19 to the Province of B.C.?
You do not have to look beyond the just announced unemployment numbers for the months of March and April in B.C.. How does close to a 400,000-job loss and an unemployment rate of over 10% look?
So, consider the following –
What will a restart of the economy look like?
What will our NEW normal in Transit look like?
Who, how many and how often will the public be ready to go back to public transit without fear of contracting this deadly virus? What will the public’s trust quotient be?
How many bricks and mortar businesses will reopen? How many will re-engineer their existence?
How many businesses large and small will rethink how they are going to operate in the future i.e. work from home just might be looking more attractive in terms of increased productivity at a reduced cost?
Transit use during this pandemic has been reduced by over 84%, how much of that will come back and/or how long will it take? Will TransLink’s current funding model sustain some form of existing transit operations for 4 months? 6 months? Or 8 months?
How long will it take for gas, parking revenues and fare revenues meet the needs of our NEW transit needs?
What will our new economy look like after potentially a 6 – 10-month, (or more) shutdown?
We recall TransLink’s dismissal of the $50 million previously spent for the planning of the previously approved 11 KM Surrey LRT line on 104th Ave to Surrey Center down King George Blvd to Newton. This is the time to regroup and go back to utilize those previously expended funds and the planning they were used for and move forward with that plan.
We need to support fiscally responsible regional and interregional transit for the lower mainland out to Chilliwack.
We need to support environmentally responsible interregional transit for the lower mainland out to Chilliwack.
Conclusion: At a cost of $200 Million per KM (TransLink numbers), continued expansion of SkyTrain will bleed off the available capital financial resources PLUS the costly operational financial resources to properly expand Transit on the lower mainland, from Lions Bay to Hope. The facts are a 99 Km state-of-the-art South Fraser Hydrogen Community Rail passenger service (at no-cost for its use) will serve 10 times more taxpayers/residents, industrial parks, 14 Post Secondary Institutions and the Abbotsford Intern. Airport AT THE SAME COST as 7 Km. of the Surrey Center to Fleetwood Sky-train.
Our region(s) need fiscally and economically responsible efficient transit that is environmentally friendly and CleanBC appropriate. With very-limited financial resources available from government going forward, lets implement a system that makes sense!
Here are ten questions to test your knowledge of transit mode and issues.
Passing grade is 70%.
1) What is Light Rail Transit?
2 ) What is metro?
3 ) What is capacity?
4 ) What grade maximum is now the industry standard for light rail?
5 ) What is the maximum grade that LRT/tram climbs (by adhesion) in revenue service today?
6 ) After the introduction of ‘busways’ in Ottawa, ridership changed by how much?
7 ) Approximately what percentage of operating costs of a transit system can be attributed to wages?
8 ) Approximately how much ridership is lost per transfer?
9 ) Are automated (driverless) transit systems cheaper to operate than non automated transit systems?
10) What is the maximum capacity of the largest light rail vehicle today, calculated at all seats filled and standing passengers at four persons per square metre?
Answers:
1 ) LRT is a transit mode, generally electrically powered, able to operate in mixed traffic, that can economically carry between 2,000 and 20,000 persons per hour per direction.
2 ) Metro is a grade separated transit mode, electrically powered, built for average hourly ridership loads in excess of 15,000 pphpd. LRT can be operated as a metro, though a metro can’t operate as light rail!
3 ) Capacity = vehicle capacity and headway (trains per hour per direction).
4 ) 8%
5 ) 13.8% (Lisbon, Portugal)
6 ) A decline of ridership of 15.7% from 1986 to 1997 (OC Transpo)
7 ) 70%
8 ) 70%
9 ) No, studies have found that LRT is cheaper to operate, when comparing equal systems.
10 ) The URBOS 3 CAF tram holds the world record for being the world’s longest rail runner (55.9 meters) – Capacity 330 people (By comparison, four Mk.1 SkyTrain cars have a capacity of 300 persons!)
CAF Urbos (Caterpillar), in operation in Budapest.
The Charleroi, the metro extension that never was.
Since the story of the Charleroi pre-metro was first posted in 2009 (see story below), nothing has changed and talks of completing the line have come to naught.
Could be the fate of the $3 billion Broadway subway? Built, but far too expensive to operate and portions or the entire line being mothballed.
A similar length subway line in Toronto, is said to cost the TTC an additional $40 million annually in operating costs.
TransLink remains mute on operating costs.
Exactly, what is TransLink afraid of?
Could it be that TransLink treats metro taxpayers as rubes and easy marks to pick pockets?
Well, that was TransLink’s “modus operandai” until a nasty little virus has put the economy in the dustbin.
Post Covid-19 will change peoples travailing habits, their ability to pay both taxes and user fees.
We are now entering a “wartime economy”, as money will be scarce and general taxes will be high and the taxpayer will begin to demand accountability and frugality, not just with municipal governments, but major crown corporations and alike. TransLink will be come a political pariah and the Broadway subway a later and far more costly FastFerry debacle.
Unused or abandoned subway tunnels in Europe are used as mushroom farms or even grow-ops, legal or illegal.
A $3 billion mushroom farm or grow-op under Broadway is just not what the taxpayer paid for!
From 2009:
The Charleroi Pre-metro, the metro that was built and they didn’t come! A short history on failed transit planning.
One ‘metro‘ system that every proponent of the SkyTrain light-metro ignores is the Charleroi pre-metro. In Belgium traditional LRT is known as ‘trams‘, LRT built as a light-metro is known as pre metro. Pre metro has much in common with SkyTrain, including segregated rights-of-ways and large stations with escalators, etc. The Charleroi Métro is famous for the parts of it which were never built, partially built, or fully completed but not opened. There are many important lessons to be learned, yet one is afraid that the ‘powers that be’ are blind, deaf and dumb, with continued SkyTrain and/or light-metro construction in the Metro Vancouver region. One wonders, with such low ridership numbers, that the Evergreen Line will be Vancouver’s version with the Charleroi.
The Charleroi was planned in the 1960s as a 48-km network, using heavy rail metro trains, consisting of eight branch lines radiating from a central loop downtown. If completed as planned, this would have been the largest metro system in the Benelux region. Funds ran out during construction, however, and only one complete line (to Monument), part of another line (as far as Gilly), and three-quarters of the loop were actually built and opened to traffic, all between 1976 and 1996.
Another branch line towards the suburb of Châtelet (Châtelineau) was almost finished, to the extent of installing track, power cables, escalators and still-working electric signals to the first three stations, but never opened as the expected passenger numbers were too low to pay for the extra staff and rolling stock.
A fourth branch towards Gosselies, on the street following a former Vicinal tram route, is in use as far as the Jumet tram depot but does not carry passengers.
The high costs of construction, together with a decline in Charleroi’s traditional “smokestack” industries, and questioning of the scope of the whole project in proportion to the actual demand for it, are all cited as reasons for the original plan going unfulfilled.
TramTrain, unknown in Canada, mocked by those who have not even researched the mode, is now expanding across the world.
The concept is simple and well understood a century ago, but time has erased the memory of the “interurban” from our present crop of planners.
Until 1992……..
The German City of Karlsruhe opened it’s first true TramTrain Line, which replaced a former commuter line with a modern tram, which had the ability to operate both on the mainline line railways and on city tram tracks. The new service provided a seamless (no transfer journey) from the ‘burbs to the city centre.
The results were extraordinary; not just success but triumphal!
In just six months ridership increased 479% – from 533,600 a week to 2,544,976 a week. Sunday’s ridership on the new TramTrain route increased a massive 3,699%!
Success like this just does not go unnoticed.
Well it has gone unnoticed in Canada and more specifically BC, where the provincial government and the transit authority, still persist in massively expensive light-metro for regional transit.
Affordable transit options like TramTrain are ignored.
And for the naysayers claiming that TramTrain isn’t for long distances,
Karlsruhe’s longest run is 210km (130 miles)
Karlsruhe’s S4 service from Ohringen through central Karlsruhe to Achern, south-west of Baden-Baden. The TramTrain route uses DB mainlines, regional railway lines and on-street running in various cities.
In the 21st century, success is noticed and copied and since 1992, there are now well over 30 new TramTrain services in operation in Europe, the UK, the USA and Asia, with many more on the drawing board.
Compare with our proprietary SkyTrain light-metro system, where since the early 1980’s no one has copied Vancouver’s exclusive use of light-metro for urban transportation, nor the proprietary and now called MALM proprietary mini-metro system. In fact, only seven such proprietary systems have been built since the late 1970’s.
In the expanding world of TramTrain, Metro Vancouver is being left behind at the station.
A Karlsruhe TramTrain in the city centre.
Stadler will supply battery-powered tram-trains to Wales
Swiss rolling stock manufacturer Stadler prepares to start the delivery of the first CityLink tram-trains to Wales. The three-car light rail vehicles will use both electric energy and battery power. 35 tram-trains will serve the cross-city and commuter lines in the capital of Wales, Cardiff, and its surroundings.
“It’s really exciting to know that Cardiff will see the return of a tram operation for the first time in over 70 years,” said Kevin Thomas, CEO of Transport for Wales Rail Services (TfW Rail). The CityLink tram-trains will also serve the commuter routes from Cardiff to Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil. The bi-mode vehicles will start regular service from 2022 and will be operated by TfW Rail, a Welsh subsidiary of Keolis.
Tri-mode Flirt trains
Besides the battery-powered tram-trains, Stadler will also supply 36 innovative Flirt trains to serve the planning South Wales Metro routes. The batch is divided into two groups. 24 tri-mode units (7 three-car and 17 four-car) will be capable to use overhead electric wires, diesel and battery power. The remaining 11 four-car trains will be diesel-operated. “The tri-modes being built by Stadler will offer an efficient and cost-effective electric drive and battery operation. 2022 can’t come soon enough for us or our passengers,” noted Kevin Thomas.
Stadler in UK
Cardiff will be the third city in the UK to operate the Stadler trams. 12 Variobahn units serve the Croydon Tramlink in London since 2012. The Swiss producer has delivered 7 CityLink vehicles in 2015-2016 to Sheffield. Moreover, Greater Anglia ordered 58 Flirt trains. The rail operator received the first unit on 28 February.
Stadler will supply 52 Class 777 electric multiple units for Merseyrail to be operated on the Liverpool commuter services. The manufacturer has also concluded a contract to deliver 17 trains for Glasgow Subway. The Class 68 and 88 locomotives produced by Stadler are used by the British passenger and freight operators.
Now ten years old, the Leewood Study, done by Leewood Projects (UK), to access the viability of reinstating a passenger rail service from downtown Vancouver to Chilliwack via the former BC Electric R.R. route, is worth a revisit.
The Leewood Study brought a fresh set of ideas to the planning table, something the establishment did not like, because the establishment plans for failure.
The Leewood Study brought the word TramTrain into the local lexicon, but the genius of TramTrain has been lost on politicians and bureaucrats who still want to plan for ruinously expensive, get glitzy light metro in Metro Vancouver.
A modern European diesel TramTrain in operation on a country branch line
This brings us to this weeks release of the Vancouver Island Corridor Study, which gave a sobering cost of renewing the railway, but woefully deficient on providing a sound basis for any sort of passenger rail.
Time wasted on “commuter rail” is almost laughable if it were not so sad as commuter rail is only viable in major conurbations.
To be successful, a new and fresh look must be taken at proven methods of offering an affordable passenger rail service, as the establishment does not want any sort of rail transit, preferring buses and new highways.
The Vancouver Island Corridor Study is a voluminous tome that lacks a coherent objective.
The study pinpoints the costs of rehabbing the line, but a 50% contingency, points to the fact those doing the study did not do a lot of homework.
The failing of the study lies in the fact it is using 19th century passenger rail solutions to solve 21st century problems.
It won’t work.
Creative thinking was desperately needed, but was absent, as the those doing the study reverted to old methods, tarted up as new.
TramTrain is a solution ready made for the E&N, yet not even a hint of this modern evolution of the interurban, which saw service in Victoria, years ago. Interurban Road in North Victoria/Saanich is a reminder of trams long past.
A tram-train is a light-rail public transport system where trams run through from an urban tramway network to main-line railway lines which are shared with conventional trains. This combines the tram’s flexibility and accessibility with a train’s greater speed, and bridges the distance between main railway stations and a city centre.
Direct (no transfer) service has dramatically proven to attract ridership.
The ability of TramTrain to bring customers direct to the city centre has been a proven winner where used. The bonus is that TramTrain has proven to attract the all important motorist from the car.
New Jersey's River line's TramTrain operation using diesel light rail cars.
A TramTrain service linking downtown Victoria to Langford, through the extremely congested Malahat, to Duncan, Chemainus, Ladysmith and Nanaimo, with on street running in Nanaimo (possibly to Departure Bay) would be a winner.
Future operation would extend to Courtney and Port Alberni!
Using TramTrain would leave plenty of pathways for freight and tourist services.
It would be best that BC’s Ministry of Transport, dust off the Leewood Study and reread it as it gives affordable answers that their overly complicated, yet extremely dated study does not.
It now seems a certain railway company has called upon a certain political friend to do everything in his/hers power to make sure a Vancouver to Chilliwack passenger service will not happen.
Really? It does not surprise me one bit as the politics involved in providing an affordable rail passenger service from Vancouver to Chilliwack is Byzantine!
As always in BC, the massively expensive illogical transit planning, trumps affordable logical transit plans.
The Covid-19 pandemic has made absolutely clear, we cannot go back to normal, as it has forever changed how people behave. Covid-19 is a prelude for great change in BC.
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Metro Vancouver’s regional transit system has been greatly affected by the pandemic as thousands of of people stay home, with many either working or studying from home. This has put a massive finical strain on TransLink, which now claims a deficit of at least $75 million a month.
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From the onset of “social distancing” TransLink seemed OK operating empty buses, without any hint of a “plan B” for operation during times of emergency. TransLink is now asking the provincial and federal governments for more money to keep empty buses operating and to keep huge executive salaries being paid.
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TransLink and the Mayor’s Council on Transit are still proceeding with their pet $4.6 billion, 12.8 km extensions to the Expo and Millennium Lines, despite clear evidence that both projects are nothing more than “gold-plated” prestige projects, designed to further the profits of land speculators and land developers who support many of the mayors at election time. Both projects will only improve transit on paper and nothing more.
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The proposed Broadway subway is being built on a route without enough ridership to justify its construction and the flip flop from LRT to light-metro in Surrey, will be again be built on a route where the ridership will not justify construction costs. TransLink has not offered an estimate of the increased operating costs or increased annual subsidies for both projects.
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Questionable ridership projections are based on future condo tower development, based on foreign, basically Chinese investment and this is not guaranteed!
The already huge cost does not include the proprietary Movia Automatic Light Metro (erroneously called SkyTrain) cars, nor the inflationary cost increases for cement and specialty steel, needed for subway and viaduct construction.
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It is no secret that the often renamed and now called Movia Automatic Light Metro (MALM), as used on the Expo and Millennium Lines is obsolete, as it has been obsolete since the late 1980’s, being more expensive to build, maintain and operate than its chief competitor, light rail. Only seven such systems have been built in the past 40 years and only three are seriously used for urban transit!
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Today, modern light-metro systems such as Ottawa and Seattle use light rail vehicles, because of their cost effectiveness and their ability to operate on lesser rights-of-ways, yet because MALM uses Linear Induction Motors, it is impossible to use LRV’s on the proprietary MALM system.
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MALM cannot be built cheaply, nor can it be operated and maintained cheaply. The taxpayer pays a first class cost for a second class system and this cannot continue, post Covid-19.
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The recent sale of Bombardier to Alstom puts into question the future availability of MALM cars and spare parts! With Covid-19 and a major economic downturn, production of niche transit systems like the proprietary MALM light metro, maybe discontinued. Alstom has already shown that it has little use for proprietary transit systems by discontinuing production of the TVR guided bus used in several European cities, leaving operators scrambling for spare parts.
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Vancouver is now the only customer for MALM, as the systems built in Korea and Malaysia have mired Bombardier and SNC Lavalin (the patent holders of the proprietary railway) in legal misadventure, due in part, to healthy “success fees” paid to lobbyists and politicians, to ensure MALM was to be built!
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The Broadway subway and the Fleetwood extensions to the SkyTrain light-metro system are grossly overpriced for what they will do as light ridership on both extensions will greatly increase operating costs. The Broadway subway, current peak hour transit customer flows are under 5,000 persons per hour per direction (pphpd). The North American standard for building a subway is a transit route with customer flows of at least 15,000 pphpd and operational subsidies increase dramatically with smaller customer flows.
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Despite deliberate and misleading statements by TransLink and the City of Vancouver, Broadway is not the busiest transit corridor in Canada, as a representative of TransLink stated in a letter, Broadway was “our region’s most over crowded bus route“.
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This sounds like a management issue and not one of needing to be solved by a $3 billion subway.
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TransLink and the Mayor’s Council on Transit have never been honest with the long term costs of the project, which over a fifty year period, will have grave implications for the metro Vancouver and BC taxpayers.
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According to the Toronto Transit Commission, who have a long experience operating subways, the Broadway subway to Arbutus, alone, will add $40 million annually to TransLink’s operating costs.
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The fifty year costs for subways and grade separated transit are staggering, estimated more than $1 billion per km for the subway portion and just under $600 million per km for the elevated sections of the light metro system. Already the original Expo Line desperately needs a minimum $2 billion to rehab (full rehab about $3 billion) the system and increase capacity beyond Transport Canada’s Operating Certificate maximum of 15,000 pphpd.
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TransLink has not been up front with these costs, for fear of pointed questions about the massive future costs for the rest of the light-metro system.
The following is the 50 year costs of various transit modes, by Ontario’s MetroLinx.
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Spending $4.6 billion for 12.8 km of light-metro pales, when one could instead invest $1 billion on both, the proposed Fraser Valley Rail project reinstating an hourly Vancouver to Chilliwack passenger service and the E&N, reinstating a Victoria to Courtney/Port Alberni passenger service and still have $2.6 billion left over to invest in regional transit projects in Metro Vancouver.
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Covid-19 and the current ‘stay at home orders’ means long term financial hardships for taxpayers, not just TransLink. Even though there are generous government support, each month of lock down generates more and more fiscal instability for the taxpayer as future tax increases to pay for the emergency are certain.
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The taxpayer will very soon, be in no mood, to fund Vancouver’s and Surrey’s $4.6 billion gold-plated, prestige transit projects, nor will the taxpayer and the transit user be willing to pay higher fares and other taxes for transit that about 85% of the population will not use.
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As Premier, you must step in and say “enough” as TransLink and the Mayor’s Council on Transit have isolated themselves from public oversight and ignore public debate.
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In 2015, 62% percent of the people voted against TransLink’s demands for money, yet they have done nothing but play the taxpayer and voter for fools by offering virtually the same plan with no real public input. TransLink’s public oversight is nothing but a charade; a smokescreen to carry on with their hugely expensive rapid transit agenda.
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In the post Covid world TransLink must plan for affordable transit projects; build user friendly transit projects and refrain from doing the same expensive thing over and over again hoping for different results.
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2021 and beyond will be an age of higher taxes, to pay for today’s emergency funding; more people will work at home, thus fewer people will use public transit; social spacing will see different travel routines, again reducing the need for gold-plated transit options.
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Then the reality of unintended consequences of today’s reality will come into play and those could prove very expensive.
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TransLink needs to rethink its planning; the Mayor’s Council on Transit needs to rethink how transit is provided and funded; and the provincial government must rethink its rubber stamping Metro vancouver’s questionable transit planning.
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The taxpayer and the transit customer deserve far better than the current sham planning and complete lack of oversight and failure to correct the current mess maybe felt at the polls in the next election.
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Who is not afraid to bell the TransLink and the Mayor’s Council’s “cat”?
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After 22 years the taxpayer is still held hostage to expensive light-metro planning.
Absolute madness from the Mayor’s Council on Transit.
The game has changed, the taxpayer is broke and cannot pay more. The transit customers are broke and cannot pay higher fares. Covid-19, like it or not has changed the transit game completely.
Spending a budgeted $4.6 billion to extend the Movia Automatic Light Metro lines (Expo and Millennium Lines) 12.8 km is nothing short of criminal.
Covid pandemic has shifted how people work and commute. Many people prefer to continue working from home; many former transit users will stick to the car and not return.
Shopping habits have changed, thus with fewer and larger loads of shopping to carry, the car or home delivery will be the preferred methods in the coming years.
Gas prices have seen a major tumble and one doubts that they will return to the former highers in the near future, this means less gas taxes to fund an extravagant transit system.
In the wide expanse of Metro Vancouver, the age of the light-metro must come to an end, as the public, the taxpayer can no longer afford politically prestigious, gold plated light-metro, especially operating in a subway!
This message must be sent to the mayors of Metro Vancouver, Premier Horgan and Prime Minister Trudeau.
All planning for light-metro expansion must be stopped and alternative transportation plans must make an appearance. We cannot afford what is being planned for today and future generations will be burdened, paying for very bad transit decisions made pre-Covid-19.
The silly notion that by throwing $4.6 billion at light metro will somehow make things better is absurd and grows more absurd with each passing month.
If we do not change or the politicians will not allow change, then only one conclusion can be made,
that the land speculators, land developers, criminal money launderers and their lackeys are dictating how transit is built in Metro Vancouver,
because current transit planning is based on absolute madness.
Can the taxpayer afford Movia Automatic Light Metro in the now post Covid world?
Cancelling or suspending major infrastructure projects such as two planned SkyTrain extensions is not part of TransLink’s plans to save money during the COVID-19 crisis.
However, if it receives little or no financial aid from the higher levels of government, Metro Vancouver’s transit authority, which expects to lose $75 million per month, could be forced to revisit its big-ticket system expansions and improvements.
“The damage is going to be enormous, and we’re going to still need very, very significant external government support to help have a brighter future, otherwise it’s going to be a very, very difficult budget for 2021 that will affect service and almost certainly elements of our capital program,” TransLink CEO Kevin Desmond said this week.
TransLink has announced a series of cuts that include rolling back service and temporarily laying off almost 1,500 people. It also said that some expenditures planned for 2020 will be deferred, including major road network operations, maintenance and rehabilitation program funding to municipalities, as well as 2020 service expansions, such as adding NightBus service.
Major projects that are outlined in the 10-year plan for regional transit are not on the chopping block, yet.
The three biggest undertakings are the $3.12-billion Surrey-Langley SkyTrain — the first phase of which will cost $1.65 billion — the $2.83-billion Broadway subway in Vancouver, and the Expo and Millennium line upgrade programs, which include buying new rail cars, system upgrades and more.
Desmond said in a recent interview that all of those projects involve significant federal and provincial investments. Ottawa has contributed a set amount toward the capital costs of a number of projects and the B.C. government has committed to contributing 40 per cent of capital costs for major projects.
“If we were to, let’s just say, cancel any of those projects, we might be saving the local share but then we’d be suspending or losing the provincial and federal capital dollars,” Desmond said. “So, at the moment … those types of projects we don’t think make any sense to put on (hold). At the moment.”
The share of capital projects financed by TransLink is mostly debt financed, Desmond said, so the short-term savings would be limited.
“In the longer term, cancelling capital projects, yes, that would help offset longer-term deficits, but at least in the immediate crisis that we have, it actually yields a surprisingly small amount of cash,” Desmond said.
Still, Mayors’ Council chair Jonathan Coté said recently that if TransLink’s difficult financial position continues, it will have to look at all costs and projects.
“There hasn’t been any definitive decisions made on any of those major projects, but I think it’s fair to say that they will all be looked at and there definitely could be some delays with some of these major projects,” Coté said.
By the fall, TransLink will have a better idea of the depth of the crisis and the region’s recovery, along with whether any financial aid is forthcoming. So far, the province has said that it will help TransLink restore normal or near-normal service by September, but Desmond said more is needed.
Chantalle Aubertin, press secretary for federal Minister of Infrastructure and Communities Catherine McKenna, said in an email that public transit plays a vital role in moving British Columbians, and McKenna, the prime minister and deputy prime minister are working with provinces and municipalities to assess immediate needs and priorities.
Surrey Centre Liberal MP Randeep Sarai said Ottawa is committed to TransLink and making sure that it keeps running.
“I think they’re providing essential services and we’re always there to help in every which way that we can,” Sarai said. “I think that Minister McKenna is already in talks and I’m optimistic of some good resolution, with the combined efforts of all levels of government, that will be able to sustain them during this time.”
TransLink does not qualify for the 75-per-cent federal wage subsidy because it is a public body. B.C. Premier John Horgan has suggested that the subsidy should be changed to allow TransLink, B.C. Transit and B.C. Ferries to qualify. Sarai doesn’t believe that will happen, but “all options are on the table.”
“I think we’ve been very nimble in adjusting to virtually every variable that we’ve had to,” Sarai said.
Surrey Mayor Doug McCallum has said he is confident the SkyTrain extension from King George Station in Surrey to Fleetwood and on to the City of Langley will proceed as expected. The provincial and federal governments are reviewing the business case for the project, which was submitted earlier this year.
He said last week that in his discussions with the federal government there have been suggestions that projects like the Surrey-Langley line should be expedited so that work can begin as soon as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, and that there may be more federal money available to do that.
“I think it’s very positive out there. I’m very positive that they’re going to move very quickly on that end because they do have to stir up the economy, and the best way to do it is create those kind of good-paying jobs to get going and get our economy going again,” McCallum said.
Another part of the capital program that could be on the chopping block is what the agency calls “state of good repair,” which involves making sure the system is maintained. As someone who grew up in New York and witnessed the fallout from deferring maintenance of transportation infrastructure, Desmond has strong feelings about delaying.
“If we start deferring those maintenance projects, all we’re doing is pushing to a later generation of TransLink leaders and maintainers a larger problem that will cause even more effects, and in the meantime you might start seeing implications to the system,” Desmond said. “So we, in my view … should not be thinking about that because that would be cutting off our nose to spite us.”
The Zwickau Vogtlandbahn TramTrain
CAF Urbos (Caterpillar), in operation in Budapest.
A modern European diesel TramTrain in operation on a country branch line
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