The Upcoming SkyTrain Mk.5 Train Fiasco
Zwei told ya so!
First, the 16 km Expo line extension cost is now put at $6 billion; $7 billion if one includes the operations and Maintenance Centre Number 5.
The next shoe to drop will be the announcement that the 5.7 km Millennium Line (Broadway subway) extension to Arbutus, will top $4 billion.
And the last straw, after much hype and hoopla, the SkyTrain Mk. 5 trains (consisting of 5 car open vestibule stock) are fast becoming a hugely expensive money pit.
Comments from our transportation expert, Mr. Cow, tells a sad tale of the perils of operating a proprietary railway.
“During a visit, well more than a few years ago, the maintenance chief said at the time that a 5 section Skytrain would require 1.5 to 1.75 times the maintenance time and of course, much more maintenance track space. To replace the Mark 1 cars with much larger 5 section Skytrains, he said would require all existing maintenance tracks upgraded in space and equipment, no fewer than 10 new maintenance spaces or the equivalent of 18 to 20 Mk. 5 sized maintenance tracks and no less than a 40% increase in the amount of staff.
The big problem no one is telling you, the new Mk 5 cars require almost twice the maintenance in terms of equipment and time that Translink planned for and was told by Bombardier they would need. Existing staff are having big issues due to the large amount of new “updated” systems on the Mk. 5 cars. These systems have been equipped by new and unknown suppliers. Retraining is taking far longer and is costing 60% more than expected. Now that Bombardier North America is being run by its new masters, Alstom, it appears they (Alstom) essentially have little concern for the ex-Bombardier product. They aren’t interested in solving this issue with the Mk. 5’s training issues and equipment problems. Translink was told by Alstom, “this is what you ordered, we are providing the vehicles and the various training packages (maintenance & operations), the rest is up to you”.
This is why OMC #5 was so critical. It was to have all Mk 5 capable maintenance track and equipment from the first day it opened. The earlier maintenance centres, other than OMC #4, aren’t able to handle the Mk. 5’s yet. They lack many key pieces of equipment, space is limited (because they were designed to handle smaller vehicles) and training is taking much much longer than planned. The equipment issues on the Mk. 5 trains haven’t been solved yet. They are also not likely to be solved quickly because of disinterest at Alstom’s board”
So let me spell it out in simple terms. Alstom is not interested in selling the proprietary MALM light-metro (erroneously called SkyTrain, which is the name of Vancouver’s light metro system); Alstom does not want to deal with Translink. In all likelihood, Alstom will abandon production of MALM after the last paid for car leaves the assembly plant.
For all the bumf spewed by the SkyTrain Lobby, regional mayors, TransLink, UBC, the premier, what we call SkyTrain is a proprietary railway and all the predictions that proprietary railways do not age well and tend to become classic White Elephants that causing huge financial ills to taxpayers, are coming true.
The experts back in the day tried to warn us, but our politcans remained deaf to the truth.
What Is The Real Cost For The Expo & Millennium Line Extensions? A Repost From 2022.
The following post is from a September 14, 2022 and I am re-posting because Zwei was wrong about the cost of the 16 km Expo Line extension to Langley. Evidently, my cost estimates were out by $1.5 to $2.5 billion as the provincial government recently announced that the cost of the 16 km extension to will cost $6 billion ($6.5 billion to $7 billion if the Operations and Maintenance Centre #5 is built). Evidently the land for the OMC#5 was taken out of the Agriculture Land Reserve and sold to TransLink for $8 million!
So, for all those who think that SkyTrain is cheap to build, even cheaper than light rail (yes that is you former Surrey Mayor McCallum) to build, well best wait for the other shoe to drop, because the operating cost for this portion of line will be around $50 million annually. And you wonder why TransLink is in a financial crisis?
From two years ago …………………
It is the provincial election season, or more fondly called the “silly season” and all sorts of claims and promises are made.
Recently on a local radio talk show a politcal wannabe claimed that; “SkyTrain operates almost free because it does not have any drivers and is cheaper than LRT” and the host agreed with the person!
This sort of nonsense has been going on for decades, where people who should know better, make outlandish claims for the SkyTrain light metro system, without even a notion of understanding of the regional light rail system.
So, let us look at the costs of the current Expo and Millennium Line projects.
The Millennium Line extension to Arbutus
The Millennium Line extension to Arbutus can trace its ancestry back to the old Broadway-Lougheed rapid transit project where originally planned light rail would stop at the Arbutus Corridor where it would hook up to proposed light rail operating on the former Arbutus Corridor interurban route.
The NDP shelved this project, when the flip flopped from LRT to the proprietary Advanced Rapid Transit (ART), which, at the time, was the latest rebranding of the former proprietary Advanced Light Rail Transit (ALRT) system used on the Expo Line. The NDP further debased regional transit planning when they promised to pay two thirds of SkyTrain only construction West of Commercial Drive.
The flip-flop from Light Rail to Light Metro and with the province paying two thirds of the cost, gave Vancouver politicians the idea that having subways, makes a city world class, without even a hint of knowledge of the true cost of subways and their lack of ability in attracting ridership. But, they make good background for politcal photo-ops.
In April 2018, it was announced that the cost of the 5.7 km Broadway subway or Millennium Line extension to Arbutus will cost $2.83 billion.
Accounting for inflation and that cement costs have risen two to three times the rate of inflation, the cost of the subway will be more.
How much more?
Accounting just for inflation, the project now costs $3.19 billion and rising.
All the more embarrassing is that the subway will cater to peak traffic flows less than 4,000 pphpd, with the Broadway 99-B Line bus currently having a maximum capacity of 2,000 pphpd!
Expect the bad news that the cost of the subway will exceed its original estimates after the next civic elections.
The Expo Line Extension To Langley
This project has even more dubious history than the Broadway subway.
With the cost of SkyTrain light-metro ever increasing, TransLink set in motion of a plan to build LRT to connect central Surrey and Langley to the light-metro network.
The planning was fraught with issues, as TransLink designed the proposed LRT as a road rebuilding project with rails which drove up costs. Another problem, TransLink designed the proposed Surrey LRT as a “poor man’s” light metro and failed to understand that LRT was not light metro.
Evidently the bureaucrats at TransLink do not understand the differences between LRT and light-metro.
In the 2018 Civic Elections, former City of Surrey Mayor Dough McCallum ran on a ticket which included a switch from LRT to light-metro because he was an expert about transit, being around when the Millennium line was built, and that he could build the 16 km Expo line extension to Langley for $1.63 billion.
The public bought into this nonsense and McCallum was duly elected and the switch from LRT to Movia Automatic Light Metro was made.
Fast forward to 2022 and the cost to extend the SkyTrain light-metro system to Langley has become so expensive that the the project has been split into two contracts in an effort by the provincial government to hide the costs.
Contract 1: The guideway, which is now estimated to cost over $4 billion, of which 40% will be paid for by the federal government.
Contract 2: The operations and maintenance centre #5, which is now estimated to cost $500 million to $1 billion and must be completed before the line opens.
Thus the true cost of the 16 km Expo Line extension to Langley is $4.5 billion to $5 billion+!
The Partly Funded Mid Life Rehab
What is not included with the cost of the SkyTrain light metro extensions, is the estimated $3 billion mid life rehab of the Expo and Millennium Lines. As mentioned several times before, the Expo and Millennium Lines need a complete re-signalling; a renewed and enhanced electrical supply; and the replacement of switches (points), and a sundry of lesser items to be renewed or replaced before the extensions are opened.
From Toronto’s MetroLinx – the 50 year costs of rapid transit.
Die Rechnung – The Bill!
This has been updated to 2024 dollars.
What is the cost of extending SkyTrain Light Metro system 21.7 km?
5.7 km Broadway subway – $3 billion+
16 km Expo Line extension to Langley – $6 billion to $7 billion+
Mid life rehab – $3 to $3.5 billion+ ($1.47 billion already spent to install a new signalling system)
Thus the total cost for extending the Expo and Millennium lines a mere 21.7 km is $12 billion to $13.5 billion+ not including the new cars or major track adjustments needed for the Expo line to achieve a capacity of 17,500 pphpd!
The question remains, is $12 billion to $13.5 billion or more, good value for money for 21.7 km of new rapid transit line?
OMC #5 – Who Made $8 Million?
An interesting passage from Bob Mackin’s Breaker News has peaked my interest concerning the the Operations and Maintenance Centre #5.
“A Dec. 11, 2023 NDP cabinet order, signed by Surrey-Green Timbers MLA Rachna Singh, took a nearly 37-acre parcel of land at 176th and the Fraser Highway out of the Agriculture Land Reserve on which to build the $1 billion operations and maintenance centre for TransLink.
B.C. Assessment Authority valued the land at $5.65 million in July 2023. It was sold for $8.052 million last November.”
I find this remarkable because TransLink, the Minister of Transportation and the premier have refrained from all discussion about OMC #5.
Rail for the Valley knew about OMC#5 since 2018 and the government’s flip-flop from light rail to SkyTrain light-metro. Rail for the Valley were told that the cost would be between $500 to $1 billion.
There is no question about the need for the OMC#5, but certainly questions must be asked over the lack of any public input taking land out of the ALR for the OMC#5 and who made the massive profit selling ALR land for the OMC#5.
The NDP Just Love FastFerry Projects!
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana, an early 20th century writer and philosopher.
Well, the NDP certainly do not remember their past because the $6 billion, 16 km Expo Line extension to Langley is turning into another “FastFerry” fiasco! Well done, Premier Eby, well done!
The fast ferry scandal was a political affair in the late 1990s relating to the construction of three fast ferries by the Canadian provincial crown corporation BC Ferries under direction of the Executive Council of British Columbia, headed at the time by Premier Glen Clark of the New Democratic Party. Due to various oversights by the government, BC Ferries, design bureaus, and the shipyards, the cost of the program more than doubled from $210 million ($70 million/vessel) to almost $460 million ($150 million/vessel) and final delivery was almost 3 years behind schedule.
Rail for the Valley, with excellent advice from real experts had predicted that the cost of of the Expo Line light metro extension to Langley would cost around $5 billion, with hints it could be more.
Well it is much more, $1 billion more and that is not including cars and the $1 billion Operations and Maintenance Centre #5!
Now, we are at $7 billion and counting.
By comparison, Ottawa is extending its light rail line by 64 km, for a cost of $6.7 billion!
There are many reasons why the proprietary Expo Line light metro should never have been considered for expansion into the Fraser Valley, with the prime reason being cost. Light metros were designed strictly for urban transportation, with the philosophy of small automated (driverless) trains, operating at close headway’s, moving customers.
The law of “unintended consequences” soon raised its ugly fiscal head, running small trains at close headway’s created far more wear and tear on the transit system than a regular heavy-rail metro, causing large operational and maintenance costs. Not only did light metro cost more to build than a heavy rail metro, light metro lacked capacity.
Ubiquitous LRT soon made light-metro obsolete, being able to carry far more customers at a far cheaper cost and only cities with entrenched bureaucracies, unwilling to change, and uniformed politcans, who care little about the taxpayer, continue to plan or build with light metro.
Like the FastFerries, the cost of transit rose from a $1.65 billion, LRT project to a $3 billion, SkyTrain light metro project, to $4 billion project and now the cost has topped $6 billion; and for what?
A now $6 billion light metro line, which according to TransLink’s own documents, will carry fewer customers than the Broadway B-99 Line express bus.
American transportation expert, Gerald Fox, neatly sums up the current situation with his review of the 2008 Evergreen Line Business Case.
“But, eventually, Vancouver will need to adopt lower-cost LRT in its lesser corridors, or else limit the extent of its rail system. And that seems to make some TransLink people very nervous.”
News Flash – Expo Line Langley Extension Now $6 Billion
Rail for the Valley Vindicated!
Despite the name calling and insults, for Rail for the Valley’s estimate of $5 billion for the 16 km Expo Line Extension to Langley, as it now seems it was $1 billion off.
Today, the provincial government has put the cost of the extension at $6 billion!
So, where is the extra $2 billion in funding coming from, to fund this White Elephant? A White Elephant because TransLink has stated that the Langley extension will carry fewer customers than the Broadway B-Line Bus, which has a maximum capacity of around 2,000 pphpd!
Zwei calls for a judicial inquiry into TransLink; the Ministry of Transportation; the Mayor’s Council on Transit; and the Premier’s Office, before another penny is spent on this.
What could $6 billion buy you?
- A completely restored E&N railway operating as a modern regional railway.
- A Marpole to Chilliwack regional railway.
- A new multi track rail bridge across the Fraser River, replacing the aged and decrepit single track rail bridge. This would enable a regional passenger rail network to White Rock and as far as Hope.
Rail for the Valley had this right all the time!
Below: Ottawa’s O-Train, providing an affordable regional rail service.
Cost of Surrey-Langley SkyTrain surges to $6B amid ‘market challenges’
By Simon Little Global News
Posted August 15, 2024
The estimated cost to build the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain line has surged by nearly 50 per cent, to just under $6 billion, according to the province.
The project had previously been pegged at just over $4 billion, with a projected completion date of 2028.
In an update Thursday, the Ministry of Transportation said the line is now expected to be in service by late 2029.
2:20ACCIONA wins Surrey SkyTrain extension project
The increased cost has been blamed on “market conditions, including rising inflation costs and key commodity escalation, supply-chain pressures and labour-market challenges” resulting in “higher price proposals from contractors.”
BC Conservative leader John Rustad took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) where he posed in front of a sculpture of the “Angel of Death” calling it the “unofficial mascot” of the SkyTrain line.
It is way over budget, it is years delayed, I don’t think this government would ever deliver on this for the people of Surrey,” he said.
“It is so sad to see what is happening. A conservative government will make sure we get this done, will make sure we get it done in an affordable way.”
BC United Leader Kevin Falcon called the cost escalation “alarming,” pinning the blame on the NDP’s Community Benefits Agreements, which prioritize unions, First Nations and women in certain public works projects.
“At a time when British Columbians are struggling with skyrocketing costs and an affordability crisis, the NDP’s reckless mismanagement of public funds and major infrastructure projects is not just deeply concerning — it’s a threat to funding for essentials like healthcare, housing, and education,” Falcon said.
Township of Langley Mayor Eric Woodward had a “mixed reaction” to the update, saying it was positive news that the project was moving forward, but raising concerns.
“Certainly it’s disappointing to see it over budget by such a significant amount, and then delayed potentially one year, perhaps longer,” Woodward said.
He also tied the delayed completion date to provincial legislation requiring municipalities to build density near transit hubs, an ongoing friction point between the Township and the province.
“How do you require transit-oriented development and make mandates for us to deliver that when there is no transit?” he said.
Earlier this year, the province revealed the Broadway subway line and the Patullo Bridge replacement, both currently under construction, would be delayed by one year. The province has yet to provide an update on those projects’ costs.
The ministry said major construction on the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain line is expected to begin later this year, with guideway, station, systems and trackwork contractor contracts now inked.
Early work on the project is already underway.
Rubber On Asphalt – The NDP’s Coward’s Way Out!
One just has to shake ones head in disbelief, as the NDP’s solution for Global Warming and Climate change is building more highways.
$2.65 billion (the amount of money the NDP are adding to the expansion of the Hwy.1) would build a deluxe Marpole to Chillwack regional railway, including a new rail bridge across the Fraser River. Such a regional railway would provide enough capacity that could be achieved by a six lane highway.
Premier Eby’s “rubber on asphalt” solutions are yesterday’s solutions and the NDP are nothing more than a yesterday’s politcal party.
So, when one pays the carbon tax, just remember the carbon tax is a mere placebo, to hide the NDP’s blacktop politics to win the next election.
Eby and the NDP has taken the coward’s way out.
More funding announced for Highway 1 widening work in Fraser Valley
Posted August 14, 2024
The B.C. government says new funding to widen and improve Highway 1 through the Fraser Valley will help ease traffic congestion thousands of people face every day.
The $2.65 billion has been approved for upgrades to the section of Highway 1 between Mount Lehman Road and Highway 11 in Abbotsford. The province says this money is in addition to the $2.34 billion approved last fall, for work between 264th Street and Mount Lehman.
The province says major construction on the stretch between 264th Street and Mount Lehman will start this year, with the fourth major phase of work expected to wrap by in 2029.
Work on the segment between Mount Lehman and Highway 11 will start in 2026, with major construction expected to begin in 2026. This phase is set to finish in 2031.
“I know that many people in the Fraser Valley find travel increasingly difficult, given the traffic volume on Highway 1, and we’re working hard to address these concerns” said Minister of State for Infrastructure and Transit Dan Coulter.
“We’re focusing on improvements to the highway through widening to accommodate sustainable transportation and better, more accessible interchanges to make it easier and quicker for people to get where they need to go.”
In addition to upgrades, the province says overpasses at Peardonville Road, Bradner Road, and the CPKC rail overhead will eventually be rebuilt to accommodate height clearance for commercial trucks. This work on Highway 1 between 216th Street and Abbotsford is in addition to the rebuild of the Glover Road overpass, which is done.
Meanwhile, a new interchange is planned for the area of 232nd Street, 264th Street, Mount Lehman Road, and Highway 11.
The B.C. government says more than 80,000 drivers use Highway 1 between Langley and Abbotsford, and through the Sumas Prairie in Abbotsford and Chilliwack, each day. Additionally, more than $65 billion in goods are transported along this corridor.
FLASH – Is TransLink Buying ALR Land For OMC#5?
News flash!
It now seems that TransLink is going to purchase (if not already bought) Agriculture Land Reserve Land near the corner of the Pacific Highway and Fraser Highways.
This is probably going to be the new site of the Operations and Maintenance Centre #5.
The reason: ALR Land is $200 thousand an acre versus $6 million an acre for industrial land.
From my point of view, both TransLink and premier Eby have a “politcal death wish”, by blacktopping ALR land for SkyTrain!
Rumours!
There is a lot of transit news, but most of it is about TransLink’s insatiable need for money and delays to the completion of the Broadway subway. The strange claim that the provincial government making highways “LRT compatible”, has thankfully been ignored by the media and what is left is rumours.
The latest rumour, which I have heard from three different sources is that the 16 km, $5 billion, Expo Line extension to Langley is to be cut back to a 7 km extension to 168th St. in Surrey.
What is interesting is that the rumour seems to be be a face saving “trial balloon” from a NDP/Translink axis and is based on the premise that the federal Liberal government will use the $1.4 billion, earmarked for the full 16 km Line to fund the shorter 7 km line.
From my understanding the federal infrastructure program monies ($1.4 billion) was for a 16 km line and a 7 km line would be basically be an entirely new line needing a new funding program and all the issues that would come with this.
Evidently both Premier Eby and Prime Minister Trudeau are eager for “shovel in the ground” photo-ops for the next round of provincial/federal elections as the delayed Broadway subway would make a poor background for this. As resurging provincial and federal Conservative Party is spearheading this desire.
I think there is some truth to this rumour, as the Expo Line extension to Langley is grossly expensive for what it will do; $5 billion for 16 km of line could buy one a lot more light rail or even a whole lot more of Rapid Bus for this price.
Then there is the retirement from politics of Rob Fleming, current Minister of Transportation. A canceled rapid transit project would not make a good politcal resume and if the project is cancelled after his departure from provincial politics, it would make a politcal comeback far more easier.
As per the last News Release from TransLink and the provincial NDP, the cost of the 16 km extension to Langley was in the spring of 2024:
Guideway – $4.01 billion – firm, 40% Federal funding.
Stations – ? – to be negotiated.
Track – ? – to be negotiated.
Signalling – ? – to be negotiated.
Electrical supply – ? – to be negotiated.
Six – 5-car train-sets – $123 Million – signed contract.
Operations and Maintenance Centre #5 – $500K to $1 billion – not determined.
With the exception of the OMC #5, the items still in negotiations may add another $600 million to $700 million to the final cost and this is in 2024 dollars! This makes the 16 km Langley extension very close to $5 billion and it is both making TransLink and the provincial NDP very nervous indeed.
As I stated before, this is merely an observation of a rumour and I have not even touched the rumours with the Broadway subway and if those are anywhere close to being true, TransLink itself may become financially untenable.
Enough Premier Eby – How many People Must Die From The NDP’s “Rubber on Asphalt Planning”?
It is enough; it is time politcans get serious about transit alternatives to Hwy.1
More traffic lanes means more traffic and more traffic means a higher probability of accidents and death.
No more excuses, no more of you government’s questionable adherence to the SkyTrain light-metro system.
There is a plan and it is called the Leewood Study. The Leewood Study shows that a Marpole to Chilliwack regional rail line is both feasible and desirable.
The cost for the 130 km line, connecting Marpole to Chilliwack via the still in operation former BC Electric Interurban Line?
Less than one half the cost of the current $5 billion, 16 km Expo line extension to Langley, which, according to TransLink, will carry fewer customers than the current Broadway B-Line bus.
As premier, you cannot escape this; you cannot hide from what must be done. The buck stops at the Premier’s desk. The blood of those who were killed are on your hands Premier Eby and you cannot escape your complete lack of interest.
Fatalities, multiple injuries reported in HWY 1 crash in Chilliwack
Posted August 6, 2024 3:55 pm.
Last Updated August 6, 2024 4:41 pm.
BC Highway Patrol says a multi-vehicle crash in Chilliwack has resulted in multiple fatalities and injuries.
All eastbound lanes on Highway 1 near No. 3 Road have been closed since approximately 2:45 p.m. Tuesday, when BCHP first responders reached the scene.
“Police can confirm that there are fatalities and multiple people injured,” said Corp. Melissa Jongema.
She tells 1130 NewsRadio that at least two people have died.
Police are asking the public to avoid the area until further notice.
The westbound left lane is also blocked and heavy delays can be expected in both directions.
Drivers can take Lougheed Highway through Mission as an alternate route.
There is no estimated time of reopening.
As Predicted By Rail for the Valley, TransLink’s Financial Fiasco
Nothing shocking at all, as TransLink’s financial failure has been long known to those who understand all things transit. As predicted, TransLink is running head long into a financial wall.
The villains in this tawdry two-penny play is politcal interference, corruption, ennui, and the SkyTrain light-metro system.
Currently the province (that is the taxpayer) is spending over $11 billion just to extend the Expo and Millennium Lines a mere 21.7 km, using the obsolete Movia Automatic Light Metro (MALM) system (erroneously called SkyTrain, which is the name of the regional light-metro system) and using the equally obsolete philosophy of building a heavy rail metro as a light-metro (the Canada Line).
Score; only seven of the former mentioned system have been built since the 1970’s, with now only six still in operation and only one of the latter being built by the Gordon Campbell government.
Both are hugely expensive for what they do; both have failed in attracting the motorist from the car.
Why do you think no one has copied Vancouver’s transit planning?
To quote my grade two teacher, “I will give you three guesses and the first two don’t count”.
The proprietary trains used on the Expo and Millennium Lines are very expensive to operate and maintain. The Canada Line, internationally, is viewed as a classic transit “White Elephant“.
Building light-metro on two routes that have nowhere near the ridership to justify the construction; the Broadway subway and the Expo Line extension to Langley, is sending TransLink into a fiscal black hole.
Backed by the NDP government, Metro Vancouver, and the largely incompetent Mayor’s Council on Transit has now forced TransLink into a no win situation.
This is why the province hired an American spin doctor, Kevin Quinn as CEO, to massage the truth to the taxpayer as he did in his previous employ in Baltimore, “…….. where ridership was off (before pandemic) 2% year over year since he took over.“
Remember, almost 62% of the regional population voted no for more funding for TransLink in the 2015 plebiscite and in 2024, even though ridership is up, due to population increase, the actual percentage of population using transit is dropping and is now hovering around 10%. This is a vote of non-confidence that all levels of government is deaf to.
As the province and Metro mayors continue to operate what is largely a 1970’s transit system they fail to recognize than in the 2020’s, demographic and workplace change, makes the extremely inflexible SkyTrain and its equally inflexible “hub and spoke” (where buses feed transit customers to SkyTrain hubs) philosophy obsolete.
In the 21st centruy, successful transit systems are customer oriented and user-friendly; designed to service where transit customers want to go, in a seamless or no-transfer journey.
Sadly user-friendliness is not in TransLink’s, Metro mayors or Premier Eby’s lexicon and throwing more and more money into a transit system, regarded as “toxic” by the taxpayer, will enrage voters at election time.
Shocking transit report reveals large-scale cuts threatening Metro Vancouver
West Coast Express faces potential elimination, along with bus service to entire communities
Metro Vancouver’s transit system is on the precipice of some of the steepest service cuts in its history, leaving entire communities without bus service and stranding the most vulnerable passengers, unless the provincial and federal governments step up with additional funding, according to a new report to be released today.
The “” will land with a thud on the desks of the Mayors’ Council on Regional Transportation this morning — as it will on the campaign trail in this fall’s provincial election, where the document seems intended to whip up a flurry of debate over transit funding.
“Due to the magnitude of the financial gap, transit reductions would be in the range of 45-50 per cent overall and include elimination of entire routes plus significant reductions in frequency and start/end times of service,” reads the report.
“This would include cancelling approximately 145 bus routes, significantly reducing SkyTrain, SeaBus and HandyDART service, and potentially eliminating the West Coast Express. Funding for walking, cycling, and roads programs would also be cut.”
TransLink says it is $600 million short in annual operating funding for 2026.
The current funding model is failing to keep up with inflationary pressures on the system, due to the fact fare increases are held artificially low to ensure affordability for passengers and fuel tax revenue is in decline as motorists switch to electric vehicles, reads the report.
The B.C. government had offered increased financial aid to TransLink in the past, most recently during the COVID-19 pandemic, but that money is set to end in 2025.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a new $3-billion transit fund earlier this month, but the funding is earmarked for building new lines and not funding operational costs of existing systems. Premier David Eby has complained Ottawa did not consult B.C. on its transit needs before creating the new program.
The report will likely spur significant debate during the upcoming provincial election campaign and influence how political parties structure their party platforms on transit funding.
The new TransLink report suggests cuts first be made in expansion and upgrade planning, customer outreach and municipal planning divisions, which would save $175 million annually. Add to that a $41-million cut to operations and maintenance payments to local governments for things like road safety and bike infrastructure, and the total funding gap shrinks to $365 million annually.
“There are no positive, easy or correct ways to cut $365M from transit operations,” read the report.
“At that scale, it is not possible to simply reduce costs by lowering frequency or span of service. We would need to eliminate entire routes, as well as reduce frequencies and span of service on all remaining routes.”
The report proposes two alternatives for cuts to the region’s 230 current transit routes.
Under the first, TransLink would cut 45 per cent of bus service, focusing on the least productive routes first and saving those that have the highest ridership in Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond and central Surrey.
“Much of the rest of the region would be left with little to no transit access – particularly in the Northeast, Langley, White Rock, South Delta, and much of the North Shore,” reads the report.
“Remaining routes would likely carry higher overall system ridership, given relatively higher service levels.”
In this scenario, 15 per cent of SeaBus service would be cut, ending service an hour earlier and reducing peak frequency on weekdays to 15 minutes. The Expo-Millennium SkyTrain line would see a 10-per-cent service cut, and the West Coast Express would drop from five to three round trips per day.
Under the second option, TransLink would cut bus service 50 per cent (in the process eliminating more than 65 per cent of its actual routes) with the aim to retain reduced service for as much of the region, geographically, as possible.
It would mean steeper cuts to SeaBus, at 30 per cent, bumping service to 30-minute windows outside of weekday peak time, a 30 per cent cut to Expo-Millennium SkyTrain service and the complete elimination of the West Coast Express train.
In both scenarios, HandyDART service for those with disabilities would be slashed 35 per cent and be limited to medical trips, cutting off most day programs, education trips and other service for those with mobility issues.
The report notes the bus service reductions hit lower-income people the hardest, as well as visible minorities, youth and seniors. The changes would mean as much as one-third of those residents no longer live within walking distance to transit, according to the report.
“On the transit routes that remain, overcrowding would significantly worsen,” read the report.
“Late-night shift workers and those using transit later in the evening or early morning would have very limited or no transit option as service would end as early as 8 p.m. on some routes.”
The Mayors’ Council has warned transit cuts would have a dramatic impact on the region, at a time of rapidly growing population, but are not avoidable without financial assistance from the provincial and federal governments.
Rob Shaw has spent more than 16 years covering B.C. politics, now reporting for CHEK News and writing for Glacier Media. He is the co-author of the national bestselling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly podcast Political Capital, and a regular guest on CBC Radio.
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