A Merry Christmas 2022 From Rail for The Valley

A tram in the snow!

A tram in the snow!

Rail for the Valley and Zwei, wishes everyone a merry Christmas and a safe and happy New Year!

An Overview of Quebec City’s New Tramway

An overview of Quebec City’s proposed new tramway, something all out civic and provincial politicians should see.

In the new design for Quebec City's tramway network, northbound vehicular traffic will be redirected, leaving more space for pedestrians on De la Couronne Street. (Ville du Québec)

In the new design for Quebec City’s tramway network, northbound vehicular traffic will be redirected, leaving more space for pedestrians on De la Couronne Street. (Ville du Québec)

Please watch.

How Metro Vancouver’s Regional Transit Planning Has continued To Get It Wrong!

cropped-logodec0822.jpg
Please Deliver to Mayor and Council
 
From: Rail for the Valley
 
 
My name is (name withheld by request)  and I have been involved with transit issues in the lower mainland for four decades. I have been a forty year member of the Light Rail Transit Association and through my long membership, I have been advised by transit experts, both in Canada, the USA and abroad. I am the person responsible for the Leewood Study, an independent study by Leewood Projects UK, about the viability of reinstating the former Vancouver to Chilliwack interurban service with modern TramTrain or light diesel multiple units, on behalf of the Rail for the Valley group.

Rail for the Valley: www.railforthevalley.com/

TramTrain: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tram-train

Leewood Projects: leewoodprojects.co.uk/

Leewood Study: www.railforthevalley.com/studies/

The Lower mainland has a glaringly expensive transit problem; Metro Vancouver mayors, the province and TransLink have approved spending around $11 billion dollars, extending the Expo and Millennium Light-Metro lines 21.7 km.

Is this a good investment of tax dollars or are the regional civic and provincial politicians condemning the region to a very expensive, yet obsolete regional rail system by doing the same thing over and over again, hoping for different results.

This massive expenditure, extending the Millennium and Expo Lines a mere 21.7 km will attract little new ridership because there will be little or no improvement for the transit customer, despite the promises of TransLink and the bellicose claims by politicians.

The $2.8 billion, 5.7 km Broadway subway, is literally a subway to nowhere. The terminus for the subway at Arbutus can be traced to the early 1990’s Broadway – Lougheed Light Rail Project, where Arbutus was seen to connect to future LRT operating on the Arbutus Corridor. Subways have proven to be little incentive for transit customers and a major inconvenience in forced transfers from bus to subway, means many former transit customers may opt for the car instead.

Broadway_Subway_construction_near_Yukon_Street,_Vancouver_-_July_2022_-_01

Subways are very poor in attracting new ridership, especially subways to nowhere.

In Surrey, former Premier Horgan’s recent political promise to extend the Expo Line to Langley, has grave financial implications, akin to the FastFerry fiasco, which has followed the NDP as an Albatross around its political neck, for two and half decades. Simply, the Millennium Line extension to Langley has become far too costly, for what good it will do.

This possible $5 billion investment for 16 km of new line, confirms Bent Flyvberg’s Iron Law of Mega-projects specifically addresses why politicians are obsessed with infrastructure at any cost.

the “political sublime,” which here is understood as the rapture politicians get from building monuments to themselves and their causes. Mega-projects are manifest, garner attention, and lend an air of proactiveness to their promoters. Moreover, they are media magnets, which appeals to politicians who seem to enjoy few things better than the visibility they get from starting mega-projects. Except maybe cutting the ribbon of one in the company of royals or presidents, who are likely to be present lured by the unique monumental and historical import of many mega-projects. This is the type of public exposure that helps get politicians re-elected. They therefore actively seek it out.

It is time TransLink stops its deliberate game of confusion with Metro Vancouver’s light-metro system, which has led to decades ill-advised investments, which has cost the taxpayer many times more for the present light-metro system, than it should have.

Metro Vancouver’s regional light-metro system, is called SkyTrain and the SkyTrain light-metro system is made up of two distinct railways:

  • The Canada Line, a conventional railway, built as a light metro and uses ‘off the shelf’ Electrical Multiple Units (EMU’s) currently supplied by ROTEM of Korea. As built, the Canada Line, with 40 metre to 50 metre station platforms, has limited its maximum capacity to around 9,000 persons per hour per direction. A two car train-set is 41 metres long.
  • The Expo and Millennium Lines operate an unconventional, proprietary and often renamed light-metro system, now called Movia Automatic Light Metro (MALM), whose cars are only supplied by Alstom. Alstom has purchased Bombardier’s rail division, earlier this year. No other car manufacturer has an “off the shelf” operating vehicle, let alone a production line for such a vehicle, thus the transit system is deemed proprietary as there is only one supplier.
The SkyTrain Light-metro System to scale, including station platform lengths.
BC Transit Rail

 

The MALM system uses linear induction motors (LIM’s) and is not compatible in operation with any other railway except its small family of seven systems.
 
The five previous names for MALM are, in descending order (owner of the proprietary railway in parenthesis).
  1. Innovia Light Metro (Bombardier)
  2. Advanced Rapid Transit (Bombardier)
  3. Advanced Light Metro (Lavalin)
  4. Advanced Light Rail Transit (the Urban Transportation Development Company)
  5. Intermediate Capacity Transit System (the Urban Transportation Development Company)
 
The six other operating authorities, operating MALM systems are either abandoning operation when the cars’ have become “life expired” or have signaled they are not going to expand their systems, leaving Vancouver the sole customer for MALM.

A technology bias exists at TransLink. Internationally the MALM system is considered long obsolete as it costs more to build, operate and maintain than conventional light rail or even a heavy rail metro. Cities that built light-metro, such as Ottawa and Seattle, use light rail vehicles, as they are much cheaper to operate and far more flexible in operation, especially for future expansion.

TransLink continues to use this cunning method of manipulating analysis to justify SkyTrain in corridor after corridor, and thus succeeds in keeping its proprietary rail system expanding.

Gerald Fox, Noted American engineer, retired.

TransLink’s well oiled propaganda machine, churning out ”fake news” and “alternative facts” has created the local SkyTrain myth. The SkyTrain myth has fuelled the SkyTrain Lobby, which repeats TransLink’s fake news so much that politicians and the public have come to believe the SkyTrain myth.

The Broadway subway is testament to the power of the SkyTrain myth. Funding for the $2.83 billion Broadway subway has been approved, yet its foundation is one of half truths and questionable planning.

The North American Standard for building a subway is a transit route with traffic flows in excess of 15,000 persons per hour per direction (pphpd), yet peak traffic flows on the 99B Line is about 2,000 pphpd, based on 3 minute, peak hour headway’s. Maximum transit flows on Broadway are less than 4,000 persons per hour per direction!

TransLink’s two top planners were fired for their opposition to the subway, by publicly stating the obvious; that there wasn’t the ridership on Broadway to justify an almost $3 billion subway.

TransLink quite happily lets people believe that Broadway is the “most heavily used transit route in Canada“, but instead claims “This is our region’s most overcrowded bus route.”, when there is a threat of professional or legal accountability.

The problem with TransLink is that you can never believe what it says; TransLink never produces a report based on the same set of assumptions.”

Former West Vancouver Clr. Victor Durman, Chair of the GVRD (now METRO) Finance Committee.

The former Mayor of Surrey’s flip flop from LRT to SkyTrain was also predictable, as the bureaucrats at TransLink did their best to ensure this would happen.

The well oiled SkyTrain Lobby was in full force with every bit of classic fake news and alternative facts they could muster, yet ignored the fact that MALM is now considered obsolete internationally and only seven such systems have been built in over forty years and no sales for the past 18 years!

The former Mayor of Surrey’s election claim that a SkyTrain extension from King George station to Langley City could be completed for $1.65 billion, was later exposed to be false, yet the Mayor’s Council on Transit, the Minister of Transportation took no action!

The fix was in!

The $1.65 billion figure pales when compared to the present estimate of $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion.

The cost of the Surrey/Langley/Line is so expensive that the provincial government has broken the one project into two projects in an attempt to hide the true cost.

  1. The guideway project, with a cost estimate now of $4.1 billion.
  2. The Operations and Maintenance Centre #5 project, which must be completed before the line can enter into revenue operation, is now estimated to cost $500 million to $1 billion on top of the now estimated $4.1 billion for the guideway! The stated costs do not include the costs for new vehicles.

 TransLink, the provincial and federal governments stay mute on the true costs of extending the SkyTrain light-metro system.

With the NDP promising to complete the proprietary MALM railway to Langley, a very costly issue arises.

The aging Expo line is desperately in need of a major rehab. This rehab includes a major overhaul and expanded electrical supply; a new automatic train control system, all the switches being replaced on both the Expo and Millennium Lines to permit faster operation and all stations must be rebuilt to deal with the higher customer flows which come with a higher capacity. The rehab is said to cost between $2 billion to $3 billion and must be done before any extension to Langley is built. TransLink has already signed a $1.47 billion resignalling contract with Thales, leaving the necessary and much needed electrical rehab and upgrades waiting for future funding. The cost also does not include station rebuilding, nor vehicle purchases.

 

When the driverless SkyTrain breaks down.

When the driverless SkyTrain breaks down.

 

The combined annual operating costs for the Broadway subway and the full Expo Line to Langley will exceed $70 million annually. Will this cost be taken from the regional bus system, to pay for two very questionable and politically frivolous transit projects?

If taxes are not greatly increased, this will certainly happen.

How is this to be funded?

Is a $4.6 to $5.1 billion expanding MALM 16km a good investment, especially when ridership on opening day, according to Translink, will be less than what the Broadway 99 B Line bus carried pre Covid?

By comparison, 2022 cost for The Rail for the Valley’s Leewood Study, for a 130 km, Vancouver to Chilliwack passenger service, using the BC Electric rail line, servicing North Delta, Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Sardis and Chilliwack and connecting the many business parks, universities and colleges along the route, would cost $1.5 billion.

TransLink does not support the Leewood Study’s Vancouver to Chilliwack rail service because it would outperform their $4.6 to $5.1 billion, 16 km extension to the Expo and Millennium Lines and very embarrassing questions would be asked.

But, eventually, Vancouver will need to adopt lower-cost LRT in its lesser corridors, or else limit the extent of its rail system. And that seems to make some TransLink people very nervous.”

Gerald Fox

With the Covid-19 emergency now waning and major demographic changes taking place, a major rethink must be done on how we provide an affordable regional rail system. Metro Vancouver’s light-metro system has been well studied, yet those cities who have done so, have invested in light rail instead!

Why, after four decades of unprecedented investment in regional rail transit, has no one copied Vancouver’s light metro system, including the exclusive use of the proprietary MALM system?

Of the seven of the now called MALM systems built in the past forty years, Toronto is soon tearing down their version of MALM and Detroit’s version will soon follow, as both systems’ infrastructure are near being “life expired”.

Two of the later versions of MALM, marketed at the time as Advanced Rapid Transit (ART) built in Malaysia and Korea have embroiled both the patent holders, SNC Lavalin and Bombardier in legal proceedings, including charges of bribery. For added insult, the American government refused to subsidize any ART system because it is overly expensive to build and operate and was poorly designed!

 

The Korean government swore after the conclusion of its court case with Bombardier, they would never by this or any other Bombardier product, ever again.

The Everline. The Korean government swore after the conclusion of its court case with Bombardier, they would never buy this or any other Bombardier product, ever again.

It is time to put an end to MALM expansion or the provincial government and current mayors, will become like Marley’s ghost, dragging an ever longer chain made of empty cash-boxes, IOU’s, red ink, bare purses and increased taxes wrought in union made steel, election, after election for decades to come.

Remember the FastFerries?

Today, TransLink continues to be toxic with taxpayers and extending MALM to Langley or continuing the Broadway subway to UBC will make TransLink and all who supported the gold-plated extensions radioactive politically, on a Chernobyl scale.

For forty years regional and civic transportation planners and engineers have got it wrong. But, because of very good, publicly funded PR machines in Victoria, and local cities and municipalities, plus the lack of any honest reporting by the local media, regional politicians keep building with the obsolete light metro. Metro Vancouver’s SkyTrain light-metro system has convinced other cities to build with light rail because there is no real advantage with building the much more expensive light metro system.

It is time regional politicians rethink present regional rail transit planning, where today’s hugely expensive planning will exacerbate growing congestion and gridlock and certainly greatly increase already high taxes. The SkyTrain light metro system has become a politcal “tar-baby” and continues to be a showcase how Metro Vancouver’s regional transit planning has continued to get it wrong!

 It is interesting how TransLink has used this cunning method of manipulating analysis to justify SkyTrain in corridor after corridor, and has thus succeeded in keeping its proprietary rail system expanding. In the US, all new transit projects that seek federal support are now subjected to scrutiny by a panel of transit peers, selected and monitored by the federal government, to ensure that projects are analyzed honestly, and the taxpayer interests are protected. No SkyTrain project has ever passed this scrutiny in the US.

Gerald Fox

The Ottawa Fiasco Updated

Too many cooks spoil the broth and too many politicians spoil transit.

But there is one quote that leaves me puzzled:

The city chose an Alstom train with unproven technology that strained the limits of what an LRT system could do.

Light rail is anything but unproven, as it has been around in one form or another for about 125 years. The Citidis light rail vehicle family, which saw the first vehicles operate in 2006, now has well over 1,800 vehicles in operation in over 67 cities around the world!  Also, the system is not LRT at all, rather a light-metro, with fully automatic operation, which as been around since the late 1960’s! There is nothing unproven at all.

Some historical context.
In September 2009, the City of Ottawa paid Siemens Canada Limited, PCL Constructors Canada Inc., Ottawa LRT Corp. and St. Lawrence Cement Inc. the sum of $36,718,500.00 in order to settle their lawsuit for the wrongful termination of a contract for the design, construction and maintenance of a light rail transit system in Ottawa.
The project consisted of 27 kms of electrified track, 21 specially designed and built vehicles, associated mechanical and electrical equipment and various buildings.  Construction was to begin on October 15, 2006.  The project was a public-private partnership between the Province of Ontario and the Government of Canada each agreeing to contribute $200 million in funding.
In October 2006, the Government of Canada announced that its funding contribution was conditional upon receiving a notice of support for the project from the newly elected City Council following the November 2006 municipal election.  Following the municipal election, the newly elected council voted to change the scope of the project.  The Federal and Provincial governments would not guarantee funding for the changed scope.  In response, Ottawa terminated the contract on the basis that the condition precedent of funding from Provincial and Federal government had not been satisfied. The Project Agreement had limitation of liability clauses which purported to cap the plaintiff’s recovery at $2 million.
In June 2007, the plaintiffs commenced an action in Superior Court in Brampton, alleging fundamental breach and breach of the obligation to perform the Project Agreement in good faith. Brampton is the jurisdiction in which the lead plaintiffs were headquartered.  In September 2008, the City of Ottawa’s motion for a change of venue from Brampton to Ottawa was dismissed. In September 2009 a settlement of the action was reached on the basis of a payment of $36, 718,500.00.  Siemens Canada Limited, PCL Constructors and the Ottawa LRT Corp. were represented by McCarthy Tétrault LLP, Dean Novak, Siemens Canada Limited’s Assistant General Counsel, and Douglas Stollery, Q.C. General Counsel of PCL Constructors.

That’s right, Siemens was going to build a 27 km LRT system for $1 billion and a change of government changed  it to a $2.1 billion 12.5 km light metro, using the proven
Alstom Citidis tram.

In the end, what did the inquiry do, except fuel the anti-LRT crowd (who do not know what LRT is) and ruin politcal careers. Will the inquiry improve the delivery of future transit projects or hinder, only time will tell.

 1 Ottawa

 

‘Egregious violations of public trust’: LRT rushed into service, commission finds

‘Deliberate malfeasance is unacceptable in a public project,’ Justice William Hourigan writes in final report

The Cost Of Tunneling – Part 2

Again, our friend, Mr. Cow’s comment is worthy of a post of its own.

To tunnel or not to tunnel: that is the question and tunneling or subway construction has become politcal and not technical issue.

In the late Victorian era, during the railway building boom, small railway companies almost went bankrupt building tunnels because it was thought at the time that a “real railway was not a real railway, unless it had a tunnel”. This lead to many railway tunnels built strictly for corporate prestige; very expensive corporate prestige.

The same is for subways today, where many subways, like the Broadway subway, are being built strictly for politcal prestige and to hell with the taxpayer!

The Broadway subway, built on a route with a fraction of the ridership that would demand a subway, is being built as a driver for land speculation and land development and that folks, in Metro Vancouver, is why rapid transit is built.

Costs are in $USD$

Costs are in $USD$

Yes, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the USA especially, are generally more expensive to build rapid transit in than Asia, and PARTS of Europe. This is because these other countries have lower cost structures, Finland comes to mind, due to government price controls on most items. Developing economies, combined with high local populations can drive down certain construction costs greatly.

The European Union mostly, has government and an international subsidy system in place, specifically to lower construction costs. Many of which you could not be used in Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand because they are outright illegal or would be considered highly prone to government or intergovernmental corruption and would most likely be interpreted as favoring already large, well connected international builders and engineering companies like, SNC Lavlin, Kewit and Bragados.

1. However, even Europe is now facing the same explosion of non construction related project cost increases that plague North Americans and Oceania projects. Europe is having to deal with huge insurance and legal cost increases, mainly due to the increased likelihood of using courts to slow large infrastructure projects, when the planning process fails too. An ageing workforce which means higher site and health injury costs. The huge increase in the cost of heavy construction equipment and its operations, like here in Canada, many European builders lease and don’t own their heavy equipment, which greatly increases equipment insurance and site insurance costs.

2. The system Europe had to control utility companies and their ancillary construction costs is braking down. Utility companies often force construction projects to over pay for updating sewer, water, cable and power lines, even on infrastructure outside of the construction zone. This is mainly due to industry privatization and their outright intransigence dealing with government construction projects around their utility infrastructure.

The US faces a big problem due to politics and the concentration of rapid transit projects in the same metropolitan areas, which are all growing. Not only are the projects that build tunnels, bridges and above grade viaducts for mainly heavy and light metros more expensive then building any rapid transit technology in physically segregated surface rights of way, keeping in mind that, tunnels , bridges and viaducts for LRT are expensive to construct as well. The number of easy to build rights of way for real BRT, LRT, Light Metros and Heavy Metros ars shrinking in number. For example, San Diego and Portland both early leaders in LRT are building far less because of the need to now upgrade older lines and all the cheap and easy to build in rights of way, are all gone. The low hanging fruit has all been picked.

Although not American, a graphic example, Manchester UK has built up an impressive and relatively inexpensive LRT network over the last 30 years (102 km’s worth) however, the last LRT system extension to one of Europe’s largest shopping malls, The Trafford Centre, was very expensive. This was because the surface extension had to travel above roads, bellow roads, beside roads, in the centre median of major roads and required significant sections of purchased private property because there were no more empty railway or former railway rights of way, to build on. This 5.6 km line was more expensive than the previous 2 projects, both of which, were significantly longer. This is why Manchester has been seriously investigating the Tram-Train concept (Light Rail Vehicles sharing the right of way on underused sections of mainline passenger and freight railway corridors). Something the area of Karlsruhe and Chemnitz Germany did very well and many other cities throughout Europe, are copying. A concept Zwei is a big supporter of.

The next problem is project concentration. There are 56 urban areas in the US with a population of greater than 1 million people and 81 urban areas with a population of greater than 750,000, according to the 2020 US Census. The vast majority (over 80%) of all real BRT, LRT, Light Metro, Heavy Metro and Regional Railway projects that were built in the U.S. for the last 15 years (the projects which cost the most), are in a small group of 14-18 metropolitan areas. BRT Lite, (express buses with nice bus stops) and the new Streetcar projects which generally all operate in mixed traffic, were not included.

Not only are these cities running out of cheap rights of way to build on, they represent a big proportion of the fastest-growing urban areas in the U.S. which means, these cities are by their very nature, are more expensive to build anything in. Most, not all of these cities are in states or metropolitan regions that are controlled by the Democratic Party, whom are far more likely than Republicans to significantly fund local transit operations and or build rapid transit of any kind. This is an enormous problem in the U.S., where entire transit operating budgets as well as rapid transit network construction projects, often can suddenly and or massively, get their funding cut because of a change in the controlling political party. This significantly drives up all costs. The results are predictable. Denver’s RTD, operates with a budget 2/3rd the size of Translink’s but serves a larger area and a population twice the size. There’s a reason most of Denver’s bus service, shuts down before 9 pm and that was before Covid 19. This is a terrible way to operate a transit system but they have no choice. Budget conscience people may applaud this but American cities are losing companies to Australian, Canadian and European cities simply because, they can’t get people to work before or past a certain times of the day, it’s costing real jobs. Locating a company in some massive suburban office park is becoming more difficult if the staff can’t get home by transit and must drive in or out of the office park for the majority of the day. It’s also more expensive for said company to have to maintain a huge parking lot or enormous multi-level suburban parking garage, than to build a smaller lot or structure and connect to a rapid transit station.

As I mentioned before, many older LRT and Metro systems in the US have stopped or severely cut back new construction to fund maintenance and upgrades of existing lines. Both Canada’s as well as the U.S.’s transit capital funding systems doesn’t do upgrade/maintenance funding well. These upgrade projects, something the SkyTrain really desperately needs, more than SkyTrain line extensions or new line projects, are expensive and time consuming because you have to keep the existing system running, while your doing the work. Toronto had to choose between shutting down the busiest rapid transit line in Canada for 3 to 4 years or shutdown sections of the line on weekends for 7 years (while the rest of it operates). It turned out to be 9 years, to do upgrades to the signaling, cabling, power system as well as right of way repairs on Line #1. All of which, just finished. Now line #2 and line #4 need to be done. The longer you wait, the longer it takes to do and the more it costs.

The Cost of Tunneling

The huge cost of tunneling for subway projects are barely mentioned in the media.

€4.4 billion for 6 km of twin bore tunnel and seven stations equals CAD $6.08 billion or CAD $1.o1 billion per km to build.

This should give pause for thought to BC and regional politicians that the high cost of subway construction will negatively impact other transportation projects in the province. with the 7 km plus Broadway subway, Arbutus to UBC section, yet to be built, one can estimate the cost in excess of CAD $7 billion!

Locally, $7 billion can buy the following:

  1. A completely rebuilt E&N railway providing up to three trains per hour per direction, servicing Victoria to Port Alberni and Courtney.
  2. A complete Leewood/RftV regional railway providing up to 3 trains per hour per direction, servicing Vancouver to Chilliwack.
  3. A stand alone European style tramway, running from BCIT to UBC and Stanley Park.

Easily 400 km of rail transit, connecting scores of towns, major destinations and tourist attractions, as well as providing an attractive and affordable alternative to the car.

Today, subways are the “flavour of the month”. Politicians love them because they firmly believe that the more money one spends on transit, the better it is and big business loves them because they receive huge amounts of taxpayer;s monies to build them.

Yet, building subways, creates a politcal myopia for transit investment, because the huge costs means only a small length of subway is actually built and the only alternative is building new and bigger highways, bridges and tunnels to carry the traffic, which is exactly what is happening with highway 99 from the Oak Street Bridge to White Rock!

 

The huge cost of subways, which inturn grossly inflates the cost of 'rail transit' makes new highway construction the only alternative.

The huge cost of subways, which in turn grossly inflates the cost of ‘rail transit’ makes new highway construction the only alternative.

 

Vinci, Ferrovial land €4.4bn Toronto metro tunnelling project

Observations On A Broken Regional Transit System

Congestion is endemic in Vancouver

Congestion is endemic in Vancouver

The past few month, Zwei has been on the road, throughout the lower mainland attending rugby games (my son plays first div.) and has made a very depressing observation.

Despite over $30 billion invested or will be invested in the regional light metro system, traffic is getting worse and congestion, spiced with gridlock is endemic. It took me a the same amount of time to drive from Squamish to Cypress Bowl Road, in West Vancouver, to drive from Cypress Bowl Road to the 2nd Narrows Bridge!

In the Fraser Valley, Highway 1 is a shambles almost every day from Abbotsford to 200th Street in Langley.

Local roads are clogged with traffic and the buses, except for Vancouver proper, seem not well patronized.

Side streets are clogged with cars and parking has become the new cash cow for cities.

The following three question must be asked, by regional politicians:

  1. Are we getting good value for money with our SkyTrain light metro system?
  2. Has the SkyTrain light metro system created a modal shift from car to transit?
  3. Is our regional transportation system user friendly?

The answers are not very politically palatable and TransLink is using every smokescreen, every ruse to hide the fact that the answers to the three questions is no.

This leaves an even more important question.

Will further investment in our regional light metro system improve regional transit?

The answer again is no as doing the same thing over and over again, ever hoping for different boarders on madness.

Rail for the Valley’s Leewood study gives some answers, with a Chilliwack to Vancouver, regional rail service, using the the former and still used BC electric interurban route, but it seems it is too simple and not expensive enough, $1.5 billion, to warrant politcal action. A modern regional rail service would not be a panacea but, it would give a credible and affordable option for people traveling between Vancouver and Chilliwack.

The evidence is in plain sight, yet many of our politicians remain blind, deaf and speechless and insist doing the same thing over and over again, because if anything, elevated SkyTrain or subways make damn good background for photo-ops at election time.

40 years of SkyTrain has not created a modal shift from car to transit.

40 years of SkyTrain has not created a modal shift from car to transit.

Why Are Transit Projects So Costly?

Sadly, the same is true in Canada and BC.

By comparison the $2.7 billion, 3.5 mile (5.7 km) Broadway subway costs $772 million/mile and the $4.6 to $5.1 billion 10 mile (16 km) Surrey Langley SkyTrain will cost $467 million to $510 million/mile to build.

Oh yes, the estimated $1.5 billion 80 mile (130 km) Leewood/RftV regional railway connecting Vancouver to Chilliwack costs a mere $18.75 million/mile to build.

Something to think about.

 

From Mass Transit.

Screenshot 2022-11-10 at 07-41-10 TL-railtransit-megaprojects-WEB.webp (WEBP Image 780 × 668 pixels)

US: Why Are U.S. Transit Projects So Costly? This Group Is on the Case.

Nov. 2, 2022
For the last two years, a group of researchers at the New York University Marron Institute of Urban Management has been building a big database of transit projects around the world. Their goal: To understand what drives the costs of transit project.

Over-Designed’ Megaprojects Are Bad For Environment And Taxpayers

Sadly, the same is true in BC and Canada, where politicians fully believe the more money one spends on transit, the better is is.

We are currently spending around $11 billion to extend the SkyTrain light metro system a mere 21.7 km.

Current Cost Estimates:

Surrey Langley SkyTrain – $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion

Broadway subway – $2.7 billion to $3 billion+

Mid life rehab of Expo Line – $3 billion (More than $1.5 billion already spent, if one includes station rebuilding with longer platforms for 5 car trains)

(Needs to be completed before full operation can commence on the SLS and subway)

Total – $10.3 billion to $11.1 billion

Is this good value for money or would the following be a better investment?

RftV – Leewood Vancouver to Chilliwack passenger service – $1.5 billion

A BCIT to UBC/Stanley Park European style tram. $2 billion

A new multi track Fraser River rail bridge – $1.5 billion

A rebuilt E&N railway, offering the same service as the RftV/Leewood Plan $2 billion to $3 billion.

Each one of the aforementioned projects, would greatly benefit the region/province. A combined cost estimate of $7 to $8 billion, for over 400 km of rail transit would leave around $2 to $3 billion to be spent on other transit investments in the province.

The region and province still adhere to the tired old doctrine of investing billions of dollars on a grossly over engineered and hugely expensive, yet obsolete proprietary light metro system, which in the end does little to improve transit or mitigate the emissions of harmful pollutants that add to global Warming and climate change.

But ……. it certainty helps winning votes at election time!

Broadway_Subway_construction_near_Yukon_Street,_Vancouver_-_July_2022_-_01

By Tom Rabe

NSW megaprojects are being over-engineered with tonnes of unnecessary, costly materials driving up the price and carbon footprint of the multibillion-dollar builds, Infrastructure Minister Rob Stokes has warned.

Stokes said NSW would fail to reach its goal of a net zero economy by 2050 without addressing overservicing in its $110-billion infrastructure pipeline, where concrete and steel are being superfluously added to projects.

NSW Infrastructure Minister Rob Stokes says the state must rethink how it approaches large infrastructure projects.
NSW Infrastructure Minister Rob Stokes says the state must rethink how it approaches large infrastructure projects.Credit:Rhett Wyman
 

Carbon emissions from construction material – including concrete and steel – are estimated to represent up to 10 per cent of Australia’s carbon output. A new report produced by Stokes and Infrastructure NSW has flagged including those emissions in the business cases of future projects.

“We want things to be robust and well-built, but that shouldn’t mean just throwing more concrete and steel into our bridges, roads and railways,” Stokes told the Herald.

 “There is an irony here. Because we’ve got very conservative design standards we’re actually putting more concrete and steel into roads and bridges and railways than anyone else in the world.”

Stokes pointed to the recent construction of the multibillion-dollar Metro rail lines as an example of a project that could have used less material without impacting design integrity.

Infrastructure Minister Rob Stokes says some Metro stations may have been over-engineered.
Infrastructure Minister Rob Stokes says some Metro stations may have been over-engineered. Credit:Wolter Peeters
 

“I think there is a general awareness that we have been very conservative and over-designed some of our station boxes on Metro lines,” he said.

The government is spending tens of billions of dollars on the Metro, which will connect the CBD to the west and south-west of the city, as well as a line to service the new Western Sydney Airport when it opens in 2026. The projects have been hampered by cost blowouts.

 Station boxes are excavated for underground platforms, concourses and facilities, while major developments are often installed above them.
Stokes said a “compliance culture” in NSW had led to an intense focus on mitigating risk and liability in both the government and private sectors.

“I think every engineer that touches a project on the way through … just wants to ensure that their responsibility is entirely mitigated by throwing a bit of extra concrete and steel at it,” he said.

“The sum total of all these little decisions where people are just effectively covering their back means that we’re paying way over the odds, and also contributing toward global climate emissions because of our innate design conservatism, so we need to challenge that.”

 The senior minister, who will retire from politics at the next state election, said that more thoughtfully designing the state’s largest projects would cut emissions, save time and taxpayer cash.
“We should be very proud of the fact that we are designing very, very robust structures, but the question we need to ask is, ‘Are we over designing them?’. There’s a cost imperative to that for the taxpayer,” he said.

“But there’s also a climate imperative because every bit of extra design constraint that adds to the bulk of a structure is making it more carbon intensive.”

The Infrastructure NSW discussion paper, set to be released this week, recommends a whole of government approach to measuring emissions in infrastructure.

 The Decarbonising Infrastructure Delivery report says multibillion-dollar investment decisions were being made without any understanding of carbon mitigation or management over the life of the asset. It warns that could result in potentially higher costs to retrofit projects to achieve net-zero in the future.
The report also recommends maximising the use of recycled material in building.

The United Kingdom, including the Glasgow Airport Investment Area, and Europe are cited as examples of governments including the carbon impact of projects when weighing up their benefits and cost.

The NSW government earlier this year warned it would need to push back some of its mammoth infrastructure pipeline amid rising construction costs and limited workforce.

 The government paper follows a report produced by Infrastructure Partnerships Australia which earlier this year called for ambitious, lower-carbon outcome requirements in major projects.

Stokes said future state governments would need to rethink the way they approached big projects, and instead start by questioning whether they should even go ahead at all.

“One of the very best ways we can decarbonise infrastructure is actually asking whether we need such an expensive megaproject design intervention in the first place. Maybe there are other ways to achieve the same objective,” he said.

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Listen To The Experts

When Patrick Condon, BSc, MLA,  Professor Chair, Urban Design Faculty of Applied Science School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture says a new transit vision is needed in metro Vancouver, we should listen.

We should have listened to the experts in the 1980’s when the then social Credit government forced ALRT onto the regions regional transit planning.

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We should have listened again to American Transit Expert, Gerald Fox in 2008.

The Evergreen Line Report made me curious as to how TransLink could justify continuing to expand SkyTrain, when the rest of the world is building LRT. So I went back and read the alleged Business Case (BC) report in a little more detail. I found several instances where the analysis had made assumptions that were inaccurate, or had been manipulated to make the case for SkyTrain. If the underlying assumptions are inaccurate, the conclusions may be so too.

We should have listened to the 62% of those voting against TransLink’s transit plans in the 2015 plebiscite.

$11 billion needed to build a mere 21.7 km of SkyTrain light metro should be setting off major alarm bells in Metro Vancouver and Victoria, but those alarm bells have stayed quiet.

An UK Transit expert, who was in Vancouver, wrote a guest post for the RFTV blog, The Emperor has no Clothes and no Transit, is worth reading again.

You don’t meet people of substance here. You meet flakes. The press is dominated by yellow journalism. Rarely if ever have I read a real piece of investigative journalism. You do not meet people who form their opinions based upon facts. When you encounter Vancouverites and engage them in the discussion of social issues the argument usually become circular and they end of talking only about themselves. There is a kind of deep insecurity that comes from profound feeling of self loathing that is hard wired into the political culture here. Narcissism is the dominate religion and worshiping at the Temple of Mammon; real estate speculation is the Holy Grail.

We must listen to the experts today, as the alternative is more highways, more cars, more gridlock and more pollution.

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Hundreds of thousands of trips are taken on Metro Vancouver’s buses and trains every day, but are enough commuters able to get to where they really need to go?

After the civic elections, TransLink is getting a new Mayors’ Council this fall and one expert believes the transit authority and its leaders need to start steering transit development toward change.

“I’ve long argued it’s well past time to do that because our transit model is not suited for the way the region is growing,” Patrick Condon with the Urban Design Program at the University of British Columbia said. “Most of the job growth is not in downtown Vancouver, it’s throughout the region, and it’s very dispersed in many, many locations.”

Condon says the current hub-and-spoke model presumes that all the jobs are downtown and all the workers live in the suburbs, but it’s no longer the case that all roads lead to Vancouver.

“We committed to the SkyTrain system in the 1980s and we seem very reluctant to move away from it into a system that’s much more affordable and much more capable of serving a distributed region with a distributed system of transit,” he told CityNews.

He says surface light rail and express buses are much more affordable ways to move people than using an elevated or underground SkyTrain system, particularly the “fantastically expensive” Broadway subway line currently under construction in Vancouver.

“The problem [with the SkyTrain] is, because of its nature, it can never serve, within reasonable distance, everybody in the region. It’s impossible to serve everybody with such an expensive system. There are much more affordable systems that can reach closer to people’s homes and can bring them to where they want to go if it’s not downtown Vancouver.”

Condon points to the “political brouhaha” in Surrey as an example.

“When Doug McCallum regained the mayoral seat four years ago, he immediately switched away from a completely funded light rail system that was going to serve Guildford, downtown Surrey and Newton, preferring to extend SkyTrain out to Langley without the funding. And they still don’t have the money to go out to Langley. It’s a terrible situation”

Condon argues the at-grade, light rapid transit plan would have served a denser population area, it was cheaper to build and it was fully funded.

“Now you have a situation, which I don’t think was fully recognized during the last election, where most of the job and housing growth are occurring south of the Fraser [River]. The City of Vancouver has a population growth of less than one per cent over the past couple of years whereas, when you get south of the Fraser, it ranges from about 1.8 per cent in Surrey to over three per cent in Langley.”

The good news, according to Condon, is that the growing Lower Mainland is arranged along a corridor.

“It would be relatively easy to service this constellation of linear communities, from Surrey to Langley to Abbotsford to Chilliwack, with a reasonably inexpensive system that just connects the dots.”

That’s if we consider the region as a whole, beyond the Metro Vancouver area served by TransLink, he notes.

“We don’t really think about [the region past Langley] as part of our metropolitan area but it most certainly is and that’s where the growth is happening. And to extend a super expensive subway out to UBC on the premise we are going to add another couple hundred thousand people to Vancouver really defies the gravitational pull of where growth is going.”

The inaugural meeting of the next TransLink Mayor’s Council on regional Transportation is November 17th.